• Food and beverage retail sales fell for the sixth consecutive month in July, even as overall retail sales grew.

• Clothing, footwear and online shopping were the biggest drivers of growth, with clothing sales up 3.7% after months of decline.

Yesterday we told you retail sales grew more than expected in July. Look past the headline number, though, and one category tells a very different story: groceries.

Sales at specialist food, beverage and tobacco stores fell for the sixth month in a row in July, according to Stats SA. That's a real, sustained decline, not a one-off dip, happening at the exact same time PMBEJD's own data shows food basket costs remain a serious strain on low-income households.

What's actually driving the overall growth is clothing, footwear, and online shopping.

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FNB senior economist Siphamandla Mkhwanazi said clothing and footwear sales rose 3.7% year-on-year in the most recent data, a genuine recovery after months of decline, while general dealers and the "other retailers" category, which includes online stores, also grew. Hardware, paint and glass was the only other category to decline.

This split matters. It suggests South Africans are still spending money, just not necessarily on the basics.

Investec economist Lara Hodes pointed to the underlying tension: lower fuel prices earlier in the year gave real net salaries a small boost, but rising international oil prices are now putting fresh pressure on inflation, which could squeeze spending further in the months ahead.

FNB's Mkhwanazi struck a similarly cautious tone, saying households entered 2026 in relatively good shape, helped by improving purchasing power and lower borrowing costs, but that consumer confidence weakened sharply in the second quarter as fuel prices rose and uncertainty grew.

"A less supportive external environment and softer confidence are likely to encourage more cautious spending behaviour in the months ahead," he said.