Finance Minister Yusuf Murangwa put it plainly the other day. Rwanda will not lean mainly on higher taxes or deep cuts to service its debt.
The country will pay from a productive economy by putting borrowed money into investments that return more than they cost. Education, health, and major infrastructure activities sit at the centre of this approach.
That makes sense. In a competitive world, however, the plan is only half the story. Execution is what actually counts. And execution has to line up tightly with the second National Strategy for Transformation(NST2) whose priorities are clear - to create decent jobs, boost exports, raise the quality of education, and modernise agriculture.
Rwanda's debt remains at moderate risk, according to the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). A large part of the external loans come on soft terms. Growth reached 9.7 per cent in the first half of this year.
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The deficit has narrowed. Rating agencies have kept stable outlooks. These are good foundations. But none of them automatically turn borrowed money into repayment capacity. That only happens if the investments deliver real returns on the ground.
Take education. We are investing heavily in skills. Yet many young people still struggle to turn those skills into businesses because they lack collateral. President Paul Kagame raised this exact point recently in Kigali during the Africa Food Systems Forum.
He noted that financial systems across the continent mostly favour those who already have capital and assets. Governments, he said, must step in to share the risk so that young people with ideas but no collateral can still access finance.
Institutions like the Development Bank of Rwanda already play that role to some extent. Expanding and speeding up such de-risking mechanisms would turn education spending into jobs and tax revenue much faster. Without that link, the money spent on skills risks staying underused.
Agriculture offers another clear test. NST2 aims for over 6 percent annual growth in the sector and a sharp rise in exports. Simply growing more of the same staple crops will not get us there. We need high-value, high-demand cash crops that can earn foreign exchange. Essential oils are one such opportunity.
Rwanda's hills are well suited for plants like geranium, patchouli, lemongrass and sweet basil. These can yield several harvests a year and fetch good prices on international markets. Italy and other European buyers already look for quality essential oils for perfume, cosmetics and wellness products. Companies already operating here have shown it can work.
What is missing is a coordinated push. Mapping the best hillside areas, organising farmers into reliable supply chains, improving distillation capacity, and securing contracts with specific buyers in Europe. That kind of focused plan would turn scattered efforts into real export growth and higher incomes for rural households.
These are not abstract ideas. They are practical ways to make sure the money we borrow actually builds the productive capacity Murangwa spoke about. Soft loans buy time. They do not guarantee results. Delays, weak market links or limited access to finance for young people change the arithmetic quickly.
Rwanda has a stronger record of delivery than many countries in similar positions. That discipline is why partners still give the debt path the benefit of the doubt. Keeping the edge under pressure is the real test. Inflation remains high. External shocks can still disrupt plans. Concessional finance is tighter than before.
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The IMF continues to push for stronger domestic revenue, careful project prioritisation and better public investment management. That is not a rejection of the growth approach. It is a reminder that growth without careful delivery will not be enough.
NST2 gives us the framework. The debt strategy gives us the financing logic. What remains is the hard daily work of connecting the two. Making sure young people can finance their ideas without collateral, and making sure our hills produce the high-value crops that specific export markets want.
In today's global economy, good strategies are common. But steady, practical execution should be supreme. Rwanda has delivered before. It has delivered today. It must excel tomorrow because the direction is clear. We can't afford to go less.
The writer is an ideator, development and alternative financing strategist at Halisi Consulting Ltd.
