Uganda's opposition is grappling with the absence of two of its most influential figures, Dr Kizza Besigye, who remains in detention amid serious health concerns, and National Unity Platform (NUP) leader Robert Kyagulanyi, popularly known as Bobi Wine, who is in exile.
Their absence has raised questions about the opposition's leadership, mobilisation and ability to sustain pressure on the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM).
Opposition leaders say the absence of the two figures has created a significant leadership gap, limiting their ability to organise political activities and advance their agenda.
Political analysts, however, argue that the situation also exposes a longstanding weakness: the failure of opposition parties to build strong institutions capable of surviving beyond their most prominent leaders.
Keep up with the latest headlines on WhatsApp | LinkedIn
Besigye, a former president of the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) and a key figure in the formation of the People's Front for Freedom (PFF), has been one of Uganda's most prominent opposition figures since the return to multiparty politics in 2005.
He remains in detention facing treason-related charges, which his supporters have described as politically motivated.
His political rise inspired many Ugandans to participate in opposition politics. Kyagulanyi later emerged as another major opposition figure, leading NUP in the 2021 and 2026 general elections.
Both leaders attracted substantial public support among Ugandans seeking political change but also faced repeated confrontations with the government.
Besigye's continued detention and Kyagulanyi's departure from Uganda have left their parties confronting the challenge of maintaining momentum without their direct involvement in domestic political activities.
Kyagulanyi left Uganda in March 2026 after spending weeks in hiding following the disputed January presidential election. He said he had left for engagements abroad and would return.
His departure followed claims that security agencies were pursuing him, which the government's actions and statements have made a subject of continuing political dispute.
Besigye's health has also become a major concern. He collapsed during a court appearance in July and was hospitalised before being returned to prison medical care.
In October, associates reported that he was undergoing rehabilitation to regain his ability to speak and walk, while prison authorities said his condition was improving.
The uncertainty surrounding both leaders has fuelled debate about the opposition's capacity to mobilise supporters, coordinate its activities and maintain a sustained presence in the political arena.
"Reaching out is a matter of mobilisation. For as long as they are still locked out there, then we assume it is unsafe for mobilisation," Alice Alaso, the secretary general of the Alliance for National Transformation (ANT), told Nile Post.
Alaso said the absence of the two leaders had deprived the opposition of valuable political experience, ideas and leadership at a time when coordination and mobilisation were critical.
"Their absence denies us the leadership, their absence denies us their ideas and their experience, and as a result, that gap is very significant," she said.
Kira Municipality MP George Musisi said the circumstances surrounding Besigye's detention and Kyagulanyi's exile remained unresolved, making it difficult to assess what role the two leaders could play under the prevailing political conditions.
"The circumstances that led to the incarceration of leaders like Dr Besigye and the exile of NUP president Kyagulanyi Ssentamu are prevailing, and I don't think that there can be any meaningful discussions as to what role they would play in these circumstances," Musisi said.
He argued that restoring the rule of law and allowing political leaders to operate within the framework of a multiparty system were necessary steps towards addressing the challenges facing the opposition.
"The issue is, let us go back to the basics of the rule of law. If we have agreed to go back to the multiparty dispensation, let all the political leaders play their role within the law," he added.
While opposition leaders attribute their difficulties to restrictions on political activity and the absence of key figures, political analyst Gerald Karyeija sees a deeper structural weakness in the way opposition parties are organised.
The limited visibility of opposition activities has coincided with continued mobilisation by the NRM-linked Patriotic League of Uganda (PLU), raising questions about the opposition's ability to maintain its political presence while some of its leading figures remain outside the country's political arena.
Karyeija argued that opposition parties had failed to establish strong institutions capable of sustaining their activities independently of their founders and most prominent leaders.
"If the parties were standing without individuals as their face, then they would be felt whether those individuals are in exile or in prison. So, having political leaders outlive their founders and charismatic leaders is still a problem," Karyeija said.
NRM Secretary General Richard Todwong similarly argued that the opposition's difficulties were partly rooted in the failure to develop clear ideological foundations and institutional structures capable of sustaining political parties over time.
"You don't see grounded ideological and philosophical thought in the formation of these opposition parties, just like NRM has. And because of that, they could not stand longevity in opposition against a government that is well-rooted like that of NRM," Todwong said.
However, Alaso and Musisi reject the argument that the opposition's difficulties can be attributed solely to weak party structures. They say the political environment has constrained their ability to organise, mobilise supporters and participate freely in public activities.
Their concerns include reports of restrictions on opposition supporters during public activities, with some alleging that even attending religious services while wearing party attire can attract security scrutiny or intervention.
Sign up for free AllAfrica Newsletters
Get the latest in African news delivered straight to your inbox
For the opposition, the challenge is therefore twofold: addressing restrictions that leaders say impede political participation while building organisations capable of maintaining momentum when prominent figures are unavailable.
Todwong said a stronger opposition would benefit the NRM by forcing the ruling party to defend its policies and respond to alternative proposals on national issues.
"I would be much better as a political party to be checked by my opponent, who is also ideologically thorough. I want to hear opposition members challenging our manifesto. I want to hear them challenging our policy on education, our policies on health, our policies on fighting poverty by giving better alternatives," Todwong said.
He added that opposition parties should engage more substantively with national issues, including public debt and strategies for reducing it.
"I want to hear them speaking on the debt-to-GDP ratio and how we can reduce it. I want to hear tangible criticism from the opposition, speaking to things that matter to the country," he said.
Whether Uganda's opposition can overcome its current challenges may depend not only on the future of Besigye and Kyagulanyi but also on its ability to strengthen party structures, sustain grassroots mobilisation and develop policy alternatives that can endure beyond individual leaders.
