Addis Abeba — Ethiopia could face contrasting climate risks, with parts of the country exposed to worsening drought while southern areas brace for above-normal rainfall and potential flooding, as a potentially record-strength Super El Niño develops in 2026-27, according to an analysis by international water and sanitation organization WaterAid.
The analysis, based on 44 years of rainfall data spanning 1982 to 2025 and previous El Niño events, identifies Ethiopia as an exception to the broader East African rainfall pattern, with stronger El Niño conditions generally associated with drier conditions in parts of the country, including Addis Abeba.
WaterAid said the effects of El Niño are not uniform across Ethiopia, highlighting an east-west divide that could expose different parts of the country to distinct climate-related threats. Addis Abeba, for instance, experienced one of its driest periods on record during the 2015-16 El Niño event.
The analysis warns that worsening dryness in northern and central Ethiopia could place additional pressure on reservoirs, municipal water supplies and agricultural production, potentially compounding existing water-security challenges.
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In contrast, southern Ethiopia is expected to experience above-normal rainfall during the October-December short rainy season. Regional forecasts cited in the analysis indicate an approximately 90% likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions across parts of Kenya, Somalia and southern Ethiopia, raising concerns over flooding and damage to infrastructure.
The opposing rainfall patterns could intensify pressure on water and sanitation systems, with drought threatening water availability in some areas while heavy rainfall risks damaging infrastructure, contaminating water supplies and increasing exposure to waterborne diseases, including cholera.
WaterAid's assessment also identifies Ethiopia's coffee-growing regions as potentially exposed to wider supply-chain disruptions associated with climate extremes.
Across the wider Horn of Africa, the analysis points to a stronger likelihood of wetter conditions in Kenya, particularly Nairobi, Somalia, Tanzania, including Dar es Salaam, and Uganda, including Kampala. These areas could face heightened risks of heavy rainfall, flash floods, infrastructure damage and outbreaks of waterborne diseases.
The projected conditions contrast with the broader drought signal across southern Africa, where parts of South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe and southern Mozambique are particularly exposed to below-normal rainfall. In West Africa, the drying signal is concentrated mainly along the coastal belt rather than the Sahel.
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WaterAid said its assessment draws on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), using Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), correlated with the strength of the Niño 3.4 climate indicator. The analysis examines rainfall patterns across 20 cities in three African regions.
While historical El Niño events provide an indication of where climate impacts are likely to occur, WaterAid cautioned that previous patterns may underestimate the potential severity of the current event given its projected intensity.
It also warned that stronger El Niño conditions could amplify existing regional climate patterns, increasing the likelihood of droughts and floods, disrupting agriculture and livelihoods, and placing additional pressure on already vulnerable communities.
These impacts need not translate into humanitarian emergencies if governments and development partners take anticipatory measures, strengthen climate-resilient water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) systems, and invest in water security before extreme conditions materialize.
The organization also called for water security to receive greater priority at the COP31 climate summit, arguing that resilient water and sanitation infrastructure is essential to protecting communities from increasingly severe climate extremes.
"The findings point to mounting pressure on water security, urban resilience and economic stability, as millions of people face the threat of increasingly unpredictable and extreme weather as the current 2026-27 Super El Niño event heads towards record strength." AS
