No End in Sight for Libya's Political Transition

Two days before Libyans were to go to the ballots for a new interim president on December 24, the country's election officials admitted the first-round vote would not take place citing legal, logistical and security issues.

The December vote would have coincided with country's 1951 independence date. Its aim was to bookend an internationally led peace process by electing a new interim government acceptable to a majority of Libyans.

Whether elections will be able to seal the breach in the Libyan polity remains an open question. Two leading observers of the Libyan crisis argued in early December that the proposed elections would likely perpetuate the conflict by simply shifting the terrain of struggle from military operations to political institutions.

Libya's current civil war emerged in 2014 following divisive elections for a new interim authority. In the wake of the 2011 armed uprising that ousted the longstanding regime of Muammar Gaddafi, the political, economic, and security challenges confronting Libya's transitional leaders proliferated beyond their control.

An equivocal election in 2014 was marred by low turnout and implacable spoilers. This is precisely what triggered Libya's descent in civil war seven years ago.

The predicament now facing the UN peace process in Libya is how to transform the current situation into a peaceful endgame. A resumption of large-scale armed hostilities is a possibility but seems unlikely writes Jacob Mundy for The Conversation Africa.