Renewed Conflict in Sudan
- Author:
- Katherine Almquist
- Publisher:
- Center for Preventive Action
- Publication Date:
- 23 March 2010
- Tags:
- Sudan
This memo discusses the danger of renewed violence between north and south over the next twelve to eighteen months, stating that the south will either secede peacefully through a credible referendum process as agreed to in the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) or pursue this by force if the CPA should collapse. It presents the likely triggers of renewed civil war in Sudan, and discusses the U.S. policy options for preventing the CPA from collapsing, and if necessary, how to mitigate the consequences in the event that it does. Almquist concludes that U.S.-led international support for self-determination should be unambiguously affirmed without prejudice toward unity, and that it must be backed by preparations to recognize and assist an independent southern Sudan. The memo is also available online at http://www.cfr.org/sudan_cpm/.
"Renewed Conflict in Sudan" stems from recommendations that came out of the seventh meeting of the CPA's Contingency Planning Roundtable series, held in January. The series, made possible by the generous support of the Rockefeller Brothers Fund, seeks to organize focused discussions on plausible short to medium term contingencies that could seriously threaten U.S. interests.
