As African leaders come and go, there is our own Yoweri Kaguta, Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe, Zambia's Frederick Chiluba, Kenya's Daniel arap Moi, South Africa's Nelson Mandela, Libya's Muammar Gadaffi, Namibia Sam Nujoma. The list is long.
In there are men who have ruled for 30 years and never held even a sham election. There are men who have held several elections and stolen them all. There are fellows in there who retired after only one term, baffling everyone by refusing to run for another one which they would easily have won. There are chaps who have amended the constitution to give them a third term, and are set to amend it to get a fourth one. There are some who tried and failed to rig the constitution to allow them rule longer. And there are those whom we are waiting to see whether we shall see their backs when the appointed time for their departure comes.
And there is Mozambique's Joachim Chissano. Chissano's term runs up to 2004, and he is legible to run for another one. He can therefore be in office legally up to 2009. He has, however, said he certainly won't run, but he behaves like he might run, and he carries on as if he is already running. He is a reluctant strongman-democrat, shall we say? He has invented the "Chissano political waltz".
It takes a peculiar type of people, Mozambicans to be specific, to have a Chissano waltz.
A recent encounter with Mozambican insiders left your columnist intrigued.
In the event that Chissano goes, they revealed, the Mozambicans want the widow of former Mozambique president Samora Machel to replace him. Graca is now married to the grand old man, Mandela. Sometimes she and Madiba live in Maputo. Sometimes in South Africa. Graca has said she is not standing. And perhaps even if she wanted to, she can't stand - in part because she is a South African's wife.
What if she stood? Chissano, who is 62, has said that his successor MUST NOT be older than 45, because he thinks it is time for the young generation to take over. Graca is 55, 10 years older than the "ideal successor" should be, so she wouldn't disqualify.
Until now, the heir apparent was thought to be the powerful Armando Geboaza, who leads the ruling Front for the Liberation of Mozambique (FRELIMO) in Parliament. By going for the 45 years cut-off point, Chissano has effectively "Taiwaned" Geboaza, who is about 55.
With world-class subtlety and suaveness, Chissano has waltzed through the succession issue by ruling out powerful and popular figures, by the simple device of saying he wants the younger generation to take over, and proposing an age limit.
So from where shall the next leader come? From the ruling FRELIMO Political Commission, you would imagine. All the members of the commission are veterans of the FRELIMO war of independence. They all have one thing in common - none of them is younger than 45 today, so they won't qualify. Therefore the Political Commission is out.
That means a successor could come from outside the powerful party organs. The only complication is that neither Chissano, nor FRELIMO have groomed such a figure.
But that is not the biggest problem for a post-Chissano FRELIMO. Chissano, like Geboaza, is from the south of the country. The main opposition is the once much-despised Renamo, led by Alphonse Dlakhama. Renamo, backed by Apartheid South Africa, fought a ruthless Lord's Resistance Army-type of war; chopping off limbs, and razing villages.
For Ugandans, what happened next is something they should always remember when they see the grim work of the LRA in the north, or the Allied Democratic Front (ADF) in the west.
Renamo was fighting a "hard-line" Marxist government, which was presiding over a ruined economy, and there was appalling poverty even in areas where there was no war. With Renamo making military gains, FRELIMO cut its losses and entered into peace talks. It began to liberalize the economy, and soon the Mozambique economy began to grow. Mozambique has Africa's fastest growing economy. It started on its privatization and economic liberalization programme after the Museveni government. They have since overtaken us and contracted out customs collection, and even privatized water. In Mozambique, because of this, everyone pays taxes and their water bills. In a bizarre way, many Mozambicans consider Renamo, for all its brutalities a "liberator" because it forced FRELIMO to liberalise the economy and democratize politics.
In the 1994 post-settlement elections, FRELIMO won 129 seats in Parliament. Renamo won 112. A coalition of small parties took nine. FRELIMO was so contemptuous of Renamo, it said the people had voted for it out of the kind of fear people have for Kony in the north. FRELIMO openly said Dlakhama and Renamo will "disappear", and began re-organising itself and building up its strength in peacetime, waiting to bury the opposition at the 1999 elections. They got the shock of their lives. FRELIMO gained four seats, winning 133 slots in the 250-member parliament. Renamo gained five, ending up with 117. Renamo grew marginally stronger relative to FRELIMO. It's the small parties that disappeared.
Sign up for free AllAfrica Newsletters
Get the latest in African news delivered straight to your inbox
Regional and tribal politics have added to Renamo's advantage. Chissano, and most of the top FRELIMO chiefs like Geboaza, are from the south. The general feeling is that it's the turn of the north, or someone from the other regions, to provide a leader. Dhlakama, who is from central, is seen as the representative of the north-central people, who comprise nearly 60 percent of the population.
FRELIMO cannot find a candidate from outside the south, however good they might be, who can defeat Dlakhama in 2004. There is only one person from the south, or anywhere else in Mozambique, who can beat Dlakhama. You guessed right. It is Chissano. By announcing he is stepping down, Chissano has shown that FRELIMO desperately needs him.
He has said if the people reject his decision to quit, he will stay. He has been touring the country explaining his decision not to run in 2004, and "pleading" with the people to let him go. Everywhere he goes the people are saying "No" and crying for him to stay. So will he go or stay?
This and other articles are also published with the author's website at www.africanews.com/obbo. The author can be reached on e-mail address cobbo@monitor.co.ug and cobbo@imul.com, or cell phones 077-200571, 075-757560 and 071-700571.
