Accra — What exactly is going on in Cote d'Ivoire? Another mutiny over pay? Disgruntled elements in a divided army? Disaffected northerners? The spectre of the ousted head of state, General Robert Guei returning to haunt the people and president of Ivory Coast who drove him out?
These are just some of the questions being asked and motives discussed about the apparent coup attempt overnight on Sunday 7 January.
Residents reported that gunfire, and even artillery and mortars, started late into the night on Sunday, around the national radio station on the Plateau, the commercial heart of the economic capital, Abidjan. There were also reports of fighting at the television station in Cocody, a residential suburb.
Both national radio and television were off air for several hours, with an announcement on the radio that everyone should stay calm and that everything would be sorted out within forty-eight hours. The radio remained in rebel hands all night.
President Laurent Gbagbos Interior Minister, Emile Boga Doudou, has since spoken on national radio, saying that the "coup attempt" had been quashed. Boga Doudou said the situation was under control and that national radio was back in the hands of "loyal troops" by 9am local time. The minister praised the "republican troops of the army and the gendarmerie" (the paramilitary police) for defending the state and restoring stability.
It is not clear whether the attackers were apprehended or were able to get away. Boga Doudou and the Defence Minister Moise Lida Kouassi spoke later on National Television reassuring Ivorians that they were in control. But most people are unlikely to be convinced.
Details of the number of casualties remain unclear, though it has been reported that at least two paramilitary gendarmes were killed. Others fear the number of dead will be much higher, because fighting was not confined to the areas housing the national radio and television stations.
The minister would not speculate about who might be behind the attack, but said this would be revealed in due course.
There are many conflicting scenarios and possibilities that could be cause for Sunday nights attacks.
Some have suggested that the plotters were disgruntled soldiers demanding salary arrears. It has happened before, notably the mutiny in December 1999 by soldiers requesting back pay from the ousted President, Henri Konan Bedie, who ignored their demands. The Christmas Eve mutiny mushroomed into a fully fledged coup detat and Bedie was sent packing. He is still in exile in France.
An alternative scenario has the attack being launched by soldiers who are unhappy with the controversially and newly elected President Gbagbo, soldiers who are perhaps active supporters of General Robert Guei, the military head of state who tried but failed to hold onto power in October by stealing the election.
Guei resurfaced in Cote d'Ivoire in November, after he was pushed out by people power. Guei held a meeting with Gbagbo, and pledged to call on troops loyal to him to return to barracks and serve the new president.
Its been widely reported since then that Guei has been recruiting mercenaries or commandoes and stashing weapons in his village in the west of Ivory Coast, near the border with Liberia.
Many have asked why Guei was not detained by Gbagbo when he came out of hiding. They blame the erstwhile military leader for the loss of lives of the people killed during the peoples uprising that chased him out of office in October.
Another possible explanation for the events of Sunday night in Abidjan is that northern elements in a divided army, viewing the north's virtual exclusion from power, decided to revolt. Two northern generals, Palenfo and Coulibaly, who Guei accused of plotting to kill him late last year, have been in detention since they resurfaced after Guei was overthrown.
Why, some have asked, were Palenfo and Coulibaly jailed while Guei was allowed to go free?
The people of northern Ivory Coast, most of them Muslim from the Dioula tribe, also feel that their political leaders have been sidelined. A former prime minister, Alassane Ouattara, was disqualified from standing in the presidential election in October on the grounds of nationality. The courts said Ouattara had not proved beyond doubt that he was a citizen of Ivory Coast. Ouattaras detractors say he is from neighbouring Burkina Faso.
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After the controversial presidential election Ouattara and Gbagbo appeared to reach a political truce and it appeared that Ouattara would be allowed to stand as a candidate in the parliamentary election. But this was contested and Ouattara did not stand. Supporters of his Rally for the Republicans (RDR) party boycotted the parliamentary poll which was meant to be rerun in the north sometime this month.
So there are plenty of unhappy Ivorians who might feel they have a reason to challenge the authority of President Gbagbo and do it with weapons. The president and his intelligence services may pinpoint which group of dissidents tried- and failed - to topple him on Sunday night, but Gbagbos government an not be sure this will not happen again.
