Lagos, Nigeria — "Celebration is thanksgiving, and I feel there is something to be thankful about."
President Olusegun Obasanjo was speaking Sunday on a live television and radio media show called 'Democracy Dividends, sponsored by the government to showcase its achievements in the two years it has been power since May 29, 1999.
In a country that military dictatorship had brought to its knees, the return of democracy two years ago held out a glowing prospect. Nigerians had suffered a huge range of problems, from human rights abuses, including the lack of freedom of expression, to dilapidated social infrastructure.
Two years on, few doubt that there is something to celebrate in Nigeria. Even the broadcast of the television show, Obasanjo noted, was one of the dividends. Three years ago, he said, such an event would have been unthinkable.
Since coming to power, the president has regularly appeared on the show, allowing a panel of journalists to interview him on national and international issues and taking calls from members of the public.
Sunday's programme was unusual because, instead of journalists asking the questions, Obasanjo had a new set of interviewers - all politicians. The panel was intended to present a regional balance: Chekwas Okorie from the southeast, Ayo Adebanjo from the southwest, and Paul Unongo from the Middle Belt. Two others scheduled to be part of the team did not make it - G. G. Darah, from the oil-rich Niger Delta, and a representative of the Arewa Consultative Forum, from the north.
Paul Unongo is a former Minister of Power and Steel, in the elected government of Shehu Shagari, which took over in 1979 from Obasanjo (then a military ruler leaving office to make way for the second republic). Ayo Adebanjo represents Afenifere, the pan-Yoruba Cultural Organisation, while Okorie represents Ohaneze, which groups the Ibos of the southeast.
Obasanjo used the show to list the benefits that Nigerians have reaped in the past two years, in particular, the improvement in power output. Currently, power generation in Nigeria is around 2,400 megawatts (MW). Considering where the country was two years ago, the president said, Nigerians must appreciate this improvement. Power generation was as low as 1,500 MW, in a nation with installed capacity to generate 6000 MW, and an estimated average demand of 4,000 MW.
This was so because most of the generating facilities (which were built by Obasanjos military government in the late 'seventies) had been run into the ground by successive governments. At the Egbim Thermal Plant, (built by the government of General Ibrahim Babangida), only two out of its six units were working when Obasanjo came into office.
Obasanjo says, however, that Nigerians anguish over the 'epileptic' power supply will be over by the end of the year. He has set December 2001, as the target date for the National Electric Power Authority (Nepa), Nigerias power utility, to generate 4,000 MW of power.
If it happens, it will be good news for Nigerians. For now, both individuals and businesses continue to groan under the burden of expensive individual solutions to the constant power cuts. Power from Nepa is for now regarded as an alternative power source. Most businesses now now rely on generating sets. Those that run on diesel are expensive both to acquire and run. As Paul Unongo put it, if an industrialist builds a five million Naira factory, they currently have to invest another 15 million Naira to install the generators to power the plant.
For President Obasanjo, the encounter proved a little rattling. At one point, during the discussion on why power generation still remained so low, the president found himself answering in a fury: " I cannot produce power overnight!"
Citing another 'democracy dividend', Obasanjo pointed out that industrial capacity utilisation has increased from around 25 percent two years ago, to about 45 percent now. He noted that this varied according to the industry. However, Chekwas Okorie sought to differ with the president, pointing out that some factories had actually shut down in the last two years. Pressed to give reasons for such closures, he cited difficulties with electricity supply, among others.
While Nigerians wait for the arrival of regular power supply, they also have to grapple with the rising cost of basic food items. The price of garri, one of Nigerias staples made from cassava, has suddenly risen beyond the reach of ordinary people. "Garri was the common mans food, [but] no longer," observed Paul Unongo. The price of garri has risen by 154 percent, to N2,800, ($1=113 naira) for a measure that cost about 1,100 naira at the beginning of the year.
Obasanjo blamed the sudden hike in the price of garri and other basic food items on crop failure last season in some northern states of Nigeria, and in neighbouring Niger Republic. The government had responded by sending grain to the affected areas, including across the border to Niger Republic. The gesture to Niger was aimed at preventing the arrival of its citizens into Nigeria, which could aggravate the situation in the north. The result of these measures, said the president, was that "we were short of grains."
While Nigerians worry about this problem, their leader says it will not last for long. "I see this as a temporary bitter pill that we have to swallow," said the president. The governments attempts last month to import beans from Burkina Faso provoked a public outcry, which nipped that effort in the bud.
Obasanjo said the current high price of food in Nigeria should however augur well for both the farmer and the agricultural sector as a whole. The high prices, he said, should attract farmers to cultivate more land, "so that agriculture will be taken seriously." After his retirement from the army in 1979, Obasanjo went into farming, establishing Obasanjo Farms Nigeria, in southwest Ogun state, his home state.
But the current price spiral is bound to reduce further the economic well-being of the average Nigerian. With more than 60 percent of its nationals now living below the poverty line (defined as those living on less than a dollar a day), Nigeria is now listed as one of the least developed countries.
That status is at variance with Nigeria's position as an oil-producing and exporting nation. In the past two years, oil prices on the international market have exceeded the governments own benchmark prices used for budgeting. But as Adebanjo noted, this unexpected revenue has not significantly benefited Nigerians.
Obasanjo blamed this partly on the mono-product nature of the Nigerian economy. Oil revenue accounts for as much as 90 percent of the foreign exchange earnings for the country, and about 85 percent of governments revenue. "Very few of Nigerians are involved in the real sector of the economy," Obasanjo noted.
The currency, the Naira, has been under pressure in the past two months, with the exchange rate on the official market reaching 115 naira to a dollar. But on the parallel market, the exchange rate rose to over 140 to a dollar. Obasanjo blamed this on frivolous importation. He said unrestricted importing of goods into the country (by his count, there were now 72 brands of toothpaste being imported into Nigeria) had led to excessive demand for foreign exchange.
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He said a new measure introduced by the Nigeria Customs Service to undertake 100 percent inspection of containers arriving at Nigerias seaports is yielding results. Through this measure, its possible for government to uncover frivolous items imported in the guise of essential material. But the measure has also led to congestion at the ports, as some of the importers have abandoned their goods, afraid of being caught by the government.
So who was to blame for the disappointments of the past two years? Okorie offered an Igbo proverb: If someone goes to a barber for a hair cut but comes home with his head mutilated, the question is, what went wrong? Was the barber not good or was the blade blunt? The message was clear, and Obasanjo thanked Okorie for the proverb, stressing that he took full responsibility for the actions of this government, including those of his advisers.
He clearly felt dogged by the past, however. Pressed by Paul Unongo for a deeper explanation for the continuing slide of the naira, Obasanjo said that if Unongo persisted, "You would be making me account for the sins of my grandfathers."
The challenge is to take the 'democracy dividend' beyond token gains. While the government brandishes what it says has been achieved in two years, and asks for time to do more, Nigerians are in a hurry; and Obasanjo and his government know, with an election due in 2003, that they don't have much time.
