Washington, DC — It has been dubbed Dakar 2 -- the latest peace mediation effort by President Abdoulaye Wade of Senegal, seeking to bring Madagascar's two rival presidents together and resolve the political stalemate on the island.
Wade's initiative is backed by the Organisation of African Unity (OAU) and supported by at least five African leaders who are also expected in Dakar for the delayed second round of peace talks.
The veteran head-of-state, Didier Ratsiraka, along with former opposition leader Marc Ravalomanana, first met in Senegal in April, brought together by Wade under OAU auspices. There the two agreed on a political deal that the United Nations says was not respected by either side.
Prior to April, Ravalomanana had claimed victory in the December presidential poll, disputing the official results and proclaiming himself head-of-state. In accordance with the Dakar deal, the highest court in Madagascar conducted a recount of the votes and declared him the winner. Ratsiraka refused to accept the court decision. From his stronghold in the eastern town of Tamatave, he established a parallel administration.
Wade and his fellow African leaders are hoping that the repeatedly postponed round two of the talks will reach a more concrete and durable political deal, including an agreement on an economic way forward. Six months of political impasse have had a grave impact on the economy of the troubled Indian Ocean nation. Ratsiraka supporters have imposed a blockade of the capital - where Ravalomanana, who is the city's mayor, enjoys popular backing - to starve the city's residents of food, fuel and other essential commodities.
Bridges were blown up and many lives lost after what began as a mainly peaceful protest by pro-Ravalomanana supporters in January degenerated into ugly confrontation with Ratsiraka's followers, causing further divisions throughout the country.
The role of the army has been pivotal. Initially neutral, various factions began siding with the candidate of their choice. The Rapid Intervention Force, trained by the former colonial power France, remained loyal to Ratsiraka and has been dispatched by him to repel incursions by forces backing Ravalomanana in strategic areas of the island.
On Friday, the national army came under the control of Ravalomanana, when Ratsiraka's appointed chief-of-staff handed over to a pro-Ravalomanana general. The same happened with the gendarmerie. "I now hold the reins of power, there is no turning back," Ravalomanana said in a speech marking the occasion.
The African mediators in Dakar are likely to ask for more flexibility. The April agreement stipulated that there should be a presidential vote recount after which the Constitutional Court would name a winner. Failing that, a popular referendum was to be held, within two months, to determine whether Ratsiraka or Ravalomanana would become Madagascar's new president.
The Ratsiraka camp let it be known that they expected the referendum to be the deciding factor and were unhappy when the court gave victory to Ravalomanana. The former ruler refused to hand over power, even as his authority was being eroded, and the deadlock deepened.
Analysts said the main problem was the wording of the agreement, which was open to vastly contradictory interpretation by the rival Malagasy parties.
Wade, who was praised for stepping in to try to end the bitter crisis, will this time also have the support of the French and the Americans, who are reported to have sent observers to the Dakar talks. France has said it is committed to the economic reconstruction of Madagascar.
The Senegalese leader tried and failed twice in May to have Ratsiraka and Ravalomanana return to Dakar to talk peace. On Tuesday night, speaking in the Gabonese capital, Libreville, Wade and President Omar Bongo appealed to the 'Malagasy brother adversaries' to go to Senegal on Saturday, to try to end their differences and seek a negotiated settlement to their problems.
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Apart from Wade, the five other African leaders expected to participate in the Madagascar peace talks are Bongo, the Ivorian leader Laurent Gbagbo -- who was in Dakar for the first round - as well as Presidents Mamadou Tandja of Niger, Denis Sassou Nguesso of Congo-Brazzaville and Blaise Compaore of Burkina Faso.
Ratsiraka arrived in the Senegalese capital late Saturday afternoon. Ravalomanana flew in two hours later, telling reporters he was in "good spirits".
Separate reconciliation talks between the mediators and the two men were scheduled. If the meetings follow the same pattern as in April, the two rival camps will then be brought together to hammer out a comprehensive deal that both can accept.
