Washington, DC — The people of Madagascar must be nervously wondering about the prospects for peace on their island, now that their two rival leaders - both of whom lay claim to the presidency - have failed to reach agreement in Dakar, Senegal.
Five African heads of state, including the Senegalese president Abdoulaye Wade, were on standby to mediate between veteran Malagasy leader, Didier Ratsiraka and Marc Ravalomanana, the former opposition leader who declared himself president earlier this year and was again formally sworn in last month.
But even the high-level presidential mediating team - assisted by the secretary-general of the Organisation of African Unity, Amara Essy and the UN secretary-general's special envoy to West Africa, Ibrahima Fall - did not succeed in resolving the fundamental differences between the two men or persuading them to budge from their fixed positions.
The 'Dakar II' talks, the second round in as many months, ended without a deal.
Instead the African leaders presented a peace and power-sharing plan, for the consideration of both Ravalomanana and Ratsiraka. The priority is to end the violence in the island-nation that has been divided by six months of political deadlock and resulted in dozens being killed. The two men were asked to add their suggestions to the outline plan.
Wade has described the latest developments as 'progress', saying there is still room for dialogue and that it will take time to find a solution, warning that 'instant solutions to such complex problems' are simply not possible.
Analysts are more pessimistic. They predict that it will be difficult for Ratsiraka and Ravalomanana to find common ground.
The Madagascar negotiations started late on Saturday night, after the two rivals separately flew into the Senegalese capital. The talks were adjourned in the early hours of Sunday, to be continued later in the day until they ended inconclusively on Sunday night.
Wade and his presidential colleagues are proposing that legislative elections be held in Madagascar, ideally before the end of the year or by March 2003 latest. In accordance with the agreement reached at 'Dakar I' in April, a representative transitional, power-sharing government was supposed to be set up. Ravalomanana would appoint the prime minister. Ratsiraka would name three key ministers.
But the first Dakar peace plan stumbled because the two key players interpreted the terms differently.
Ratsiraka told Presidents Omar Bongo of Gabon, Cote d'Ivoire's Laurent Gbagbo, Denis Sassou Nguesso of Congo and Burkina Faso's Blaise Compaore, as well as Wade, that he had understood the agreement to mean that there would be a national referendum which would determine whether he or Ravalomanana should be the new president.
The Ratsiraka camp had conceded that Ravalomanana, the former mayor of the capital Antananarivo, was leading the vote after the disputed first round of the December presidential election. But the official results denied Ravalomanana, a self-made yogurt millionaire, outright victory, saying that he had not won enough votes to avoid a run-off.
But Ravalomanana insisted that he had won fairly and squarely in the first round and had himself sworn in as president.
Ravalomanana told the African leaders that he understood the Dakar accord to say that the High Constitutional Court should recount the results of the poll and declare a winner. If this failed to achieve a definitive outcome, a popular referendum would be held within six months to decide who should become Madagascar's new leader.
A recount of the results by the Court was held after 'Dakar I'. Ravalomanana was handed victory and was again sworn in as president last month, for the second time since Christmas, this time with legal backing.
Wade, quoted in the Senegalese newspaper Le Soleil, is reported to have told national radio and television that the Constitutional High Court in Madagascar based its fresh results only on information provided by civil society, the church and supporters of Ravalomanana. Wade added that the conclusions reached by the court could therefore not be "reliable," because they did not include documentation compiled by Ratsiraka's supporters and originally contested by Ravalomanana.
After the inconclusive 'Dakar II' talks, this messy dispute now reverts to the executive body of the OAU, the organ made up of ten heads-of-state, which deals with issues arising between scheduled annual summits of the organization.
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The current chairman of the OAU, Zambia's president Levy Mwanawasa, has indicated that he will call a special meeting to discuss the Madagascar crisis, before the next OAU summit due in Durban, South Africa, in July.
Ravalomanana has over recent months increasingly eroded the authority of Ratsiraka and has argued the situation has changed on the ground in Madagascar, a fact not denied by his rival.
Official control of the army and the gendarmerie has passed from Ratsiraka's appointees to those loyal to Ravalomanana. But Ratsiraka has warned Ravalomanana that having the military chiefs on his side does not necessarily mean he has the full support of the army. Ratsiraka still retains the services of the elite rapid intervention force, trained by the former colonial power, France.
Observers conclude that the continuing role of the armed forces in Madagascar, and the internal politics of the island, are likely to decide how, when and if the bitter stalemate - and the violence - will end.
