Nigeria: Obasanjo and His Party take Strong Lead, Opposition Protests

20 April 2003

Johannesburg — Early results from Saturday’s presidential election in Nigeria gave the incumbent, Olusegun Obasanjo, a commanding lead over his closest challenger, Muhammadu Buhari. But opposition protests grew louder, accusing the authorities of electoral malpractice and irregularities in the presidential and governorship elections.

By 19h00 GMT Sunday evening, Obasanjo, and his governing People’s Democratic Party (PDP), had surged ahead in initial results from both the presidential poll and the parallel powerful governorship elections in Nigeria's 36 states, also held on Saturday.

Reuters reported that Obasanjo and the PDP had taken the lead with 3.3 million votes (71 percent) of the votes already in, according to the Independent National Electoral Commission (Inec). Buhari was trailing Obasanjo with 1.2 million votes (25 percent).

There were 17 other candidates in the presidential contest race, but early results indicated that the election was essentially a two-horse race between Obasanjo and Buhari.

By late Sunday evening, the French News Agency (AFP) reported an even stronger lead by Obasanjo from the latest vote tally. With almost 12 million votes counted, Obasanjo was ahead in the landmark presidential ballot with a share of 73.5 percent, over that of Buhari with 21.5 percent, according to Inec. AFP said Obasanjo had won nearly three-quarters of the votes in from a third of the local government areas reporting results to Inec.

Nigeria has almost 61 million registered voters.

To avoid a second round run-off election on April 26, a presidential contender must gain a simple majority and 25 percent of the votes in at least two-thirds (24) of the 36 states.

Whether Obasanjo has reached the 25/24 threshold should be known sometime on Monday, Inec chairman Abel Guobadia told reporters in the capital, Abuja. "At the rate at which results are coming in, by this time tomorrow we may be through," he said.

The geographical spread of the results declared so far, was not clear, though more were reported in from the south than the north, the stronghold of Buhari.

Full results were not expected until Tuesday.

Early successes by Obasanjo and the PDP prompted an angry response from the opposition Alliance for Democracy (AD), which in 1999's gubernatorial poll swept to victory in Obasanjo’s home southwest region.

The president’s robust 2003 re-election campaign looked set to thwart the AD’s attempts to hold onto power in that area. In early results from the southwest and southeast, the opposition AD party faced the prospect of losing control of up to 5 powerful state governments, to Obasanjo’s PDP.

By early Sunday evening, results showed that Olusegun Osoba, the outgoing AD governor in the president’s home state of Ogun, had lost to his PDP challenger, Gbenga Daniel.

"This result is a fraud of the highest order," said AD spokesman Ibrahim Alfa, adding "We’re going to contest the result legally. We will abide by a court ruling."

Opposition parties, including Buhari’s All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP) had already challenged the authorities over what they called vote rigging in last week’s parliamentary polls on April 12. They threatened "mass action" if there was more election fraud in the presidential and governorship polls.

Obasanjo’s party last week won a crushing majority in the National Assembly, in both the Senate and the House of Representatives.

Despite pockets of simmering tension in some key areas, Saturday’s poll was generally orderly and peaceful in most parts of the country, amid tight security.

But in some parts of the oil-rich and volatile southern Delta region and areas of predominantly Igbo eastern Nigeria there was no voting, either due to a boycott or, say local and international observers, to intimidation, political thuggery and the threat of violence, as well as vote rigging in the southern states of Delta, Rivers and Bayelsa.

The opposition reported that up to six people were killed on Saturday near the town of Yenagoa, in Bayelsa. The opposition blamed the army and the police. The police said three people had been killed.

Reuters reported the mood in Port Harcourt, Nigeria’s leading oil-city, in Rivers State as tense. Inec’s Port Harcourt branch reported a 96 percent turnout in the race for the governor’s post, where 2.2. million voters had registered.

Inec said the PDP’s Peter Odili was returned to the governor’s mansion in Rivers with a massive majority. But Reuters quoted Derrick Marco, of the South African election observer group, Idasa, saying "there was a fairly low level of turnout yesterday (Saturday)." Marco told Reuters that Buhari’s supporters had chosen not to vote "because of high levels of violence last week."

Some opposition supporters and officials denounced the election in Rivers as "a mockery of democracy."

There have been angry protests and inter-tribal clashes in the Delta in the run-up to the polls. Delta residents have accused the authorities and the multinational petroleum industry of excluding them from the riches of their own region since Nigeria's oil boom of the 1970s. Communal violence in March forced the petroleum giants to shut down up to 40 percent of the country's prized crude oil production.

There have also been continuing complaints about environmental degradation and inequitably drawn local boundaries in the Delta.

With the democratic general election of 2003, Nigeria has been hoping to shed definitively the image of military dictatorship which has cast a pall over much of its 43 years since independence from Britain in 1960.

These civilian-organised polls - the first in 20 years - would be Nigeria's first transition from one constitutionally elected government to another duly elected administration and president.

Nigerians know that their democracy is frail and remember that the last elections held by a civilian government, in 1983, led to arguments over a poorly-organised poll which was plagued by voter fraud.

The ensuing chaos led to a coup, launched by the then General Muhammadu Buhari. He is now a converted democratic presidential candidate, much like another one-time military ruler of Nigeria, retired General Obasanjo.

Buhari, a Muslim Fulani from Katsina State on the country's northern border draws much of his support from the north. Obasanjo, a Christian Yoruba, who performed well in northern Nigeria in the 1999 presidential poll, hopes he will succeed in extending his reach nationwide, as well as to his native southwest.

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