The commentary below is one of hundreds of contributions to "Nigeria, What Next?", allAfrica.com's debate on the best way forward for Africa's most populous nation after April '03's contested election.
It's undeniably true that the elections of April 19 were marred by electoral irregularities in isolated states of Nigeria. But the irregularities are not sufficient to invalidate the credibility of the elections. "Electrocracy", which most people mistake for democracy, has no in-built institutional mechanisms or safeguards against fraud in elections. Elections even in the United States are often fraught with fraud. It is too much to expect Nigeria to transcend this abiding institutional defect inherent in electocracy. But it must be admitted that elections, in spite of their limitations, are about the only instruments we can deploy to approximate the popular wishes of the people.
The elections of April 2003 may not be immune from irregularities, but their outcome reflects the most accurate approximation of the choice of the Nigerian people.
President Obasanjo's closest contender is General Muhammadu Buhari who excites negative passions in parts of Nigeria other than the far North. Nigerian people may dislike Obasanjo. But they dislike Buhari more. It's simply a gradation of hatred. To expect Buhari to win a national election is akin to cherishing the illusion that the late Bola Ige, or for that matter the late Chief Awolowo, can ever be president of Nigeria. These people - Buhari, Ige, Awolowo and Chief Ojukwu - derive the social basis of their popularity for narrow ethno-religious confines. They have never in their private and public lives made even the vaguest pretences to nationalism and broad-mindedness.
But whatever may be said about Obasanjo, it cannot be denied that he has an irrevocable, infectious faith in the unity of Nigeria. He is admirably nationalistic and broad-minded, and has never been identified with narrow interests. From the beginning of Nigeria's electoral history, the people have always voted against insular and despicably narrow-minded characters like Buhari. There is evidence for this assertion in the consistent rejection of Awolowo at the polls.
It's the height of self-delusion for Buhari to expect to win a national election when he permanently presents himself to the nation as a Hausa-Fulani nationalist. The North made a fatal strategic error to have presented him for a national election. He is simply a hard commodity to advertise, much less sell, in any part of Nigeria other than the Hausa-Fulani North.
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If the elections were to be repeated several times over under the free-est and fairest conditions imaginable, Buhari will still lose with a wide margin. He is unelectable in southern and central Nigeria, and the votes of his people in the far North are not sufficient to get him elected.
Farooq A. Kperogi, Abuja, Nigeria
23 Apr 2003
