What Happens After Robert Mugabe
By Geoff Hill
Reviewed by N. Mguni, who is based in Cape Town, South Africa
This book is an examination of the basis and nature of the deteriorating economic, socio-political and public service environment in Zimbabwe, suggesting possible remedies and solutions in the present and in the immediate aftermath of the end of Mugabe's rule. The book draws on research, interviews as well as the author's understanding of Zimbabwean history. According to the author the book is an 'extended version' of a newspaper article.
The early part of the book juxtaposes Zimbabwe's deteriorating economic environment, marked by hyper inflation, high unemployment and a shrinking economy against the country's historical evolution. Hill traces the migration of the ancestors of the indigenous Shona people from central Africa, their colonization, first by the amaNdebele, from present day South Africa, and then by the European colonists. African resistance to colonial rule would lead to a nationalist liberation struggle and the victory of Zanu PF, headed by Mugabe, at British-sponsored polls in 1980. Zanu PF would inherit the colonist legacy whereby Zimbabwe's whites constituting less than 1% of the population owned over 70% of the arable land. As such land redistribution was high priority for the new government. British sponsored pre-independence negotiations had reached agreement that, in the first decade post-independence, land acquisition and redistribution from white farmers would happen only on a willing-buyer-willing-seller basis with funds provided by the British government.
To cast some light on the present socio-political fortunes of the country, Hill uses an anecdote from an interview with an activist who fled torture and victimization to South Africa, "It's all about power and abuse of office". The interviewee also states, "Mugabe had risen to power in the nationalist movement by collaborating in the murder and intimidation of anyone who stood in his way..." once in power Mugabe and Zanu PF would extend these tactics to eliminate any political competition and entrench almost total political power.
The author highlights the Zanu PF government's policy successes during its first decade in power, particularly in education which after a decade produced Africa's best-educated population. However, Zanu PF's political hegemony, government excesses, corruption and abuse of power would result in among other things, faltering policy formulation. The critical policy failure, according to the author, was the government's inability to plan and prepare for the employment of the emerging highly educated population as well as for the urbanization resulting from the massive rural-urban migration. According to the author this phenomenon would, in time, lead to the substitution of land restitution by jobs as the critical policy issue in Zimbabwe. The attendant rising unemployment, ever increasing civil corruption and abuse of power would in time spill over into civil unrest, as well as the emergence of an opposition party, the Movement for Democratic change (MDC) from the ranks of the trade union movement. The author however does not adequately emphasize, the effects of the ideological thrust of the government in the 80's that led to deficits, and the economic- trauma that came about as a result of government adoption of IMF/World Bank economic structural adjustment programs '90s as well as the crippling effect of recurring droughts.
In 2000 Zanu PF proposed a new constitution which would, among other things, authorize the seizure of white farms for resettlement of landless blacks. Voters would reject this constitution in a referendum in part because of the cronyism and corruption that had become associated with land redistribution up to that point. In Hill's view, this would prove to be the watershed as it exposed Zanu PF's electoral vulnerability, particularly as the MDC was emerging as a viable political alternative propelled by discontent arising from uneployment.
According to Hill, Mugabe and Zanu PF's response would begin the process that would lead to spiraling economic freefall (with attendant high levels of unemployment), politicization of state institutions, and widespread human rights abuses. Mugabe and Zanu PF, faced with the real possibility of electoral loss in forthcoming general elections would thereafter take drastic measures to ensure retaining power at any cost.
War Veterans (the author calls them 'former guerrillas') would be reactivated to bring rural Zimbabwe in line with Zanu PF. The government would pass legislation allowing forced seizure of white farms. This is enforced by the war veterans. The process is chaotic; most white farmers are ejected, but without competent replacement by black farmers leading, in time, to critical food shortages.
The country's intelligence, safety and security apparatus would be used against political opponents. Riot police fire live rounds into protestors to disperse public demonstrations. An extra legal pro-Zanu PF youth militia would be set up and unleashed against any opponents and the general population. Opponents would suffer beatings, jailing, torture, sodomy and murder.
Apparatus of the state were turned into instruments of Zanu PF's. Any Independent members of the judiciary intimidated and forced to resign. Restrictive laws would be passed to limit public meetings, and the media shutting down any independent press.
While the author limits Mugabe's present 'use' of the 'land issue' to political desperation. It may be that the issue is not that simple. It may be more accurate that land restitution is a real and critical matter that it requires resolution, in a fair, democratic and transparent manner. It is true that the cultural and social alienation between blacks and whites does not do anything to help. While limiting Zimbabwe's current deteriorating situation to Zanu PF and Mugabe fits nicely into the argument that 'Mugabe must go'. It speaks little to the fundamental fact that most post-colonial African countries are political and economic failures. This would suggest that there are innate structural misalignments (economic and cultural) between the viewpoint of the 'African liberation struggle' and that of the greater global economic and geopolitical forces.
The author suggests remedies and solutions for post-Mugabe Zimbabwe. At the heart of his message is an appeal for the urgent need for the commencement of planning on the part of the international community for intervention once Mugabe leaves.
The author documents the misery and despair that has driven mass emigration of Zimbabweans primarily to South Africa and Britain. He reduces South African government's position on Zimbabwe to the 'non-interference' culture among African leaders.
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Here too, it may be that the point is more subtle: It could be that while the South Africa is anxious for a turnaround towards democratic and prosperous Zimbabwe, it rightly, wants that impulse to emanate organically from within Zimbabwe as opposed to being initiated and driven by external intervention. Any assistance should not overshadow the internal dynamics that would give rise to a new democratic and prosperous order. And so the point may not be about a confounding political expediency on the part of South Africa, as it is ideological one. The question critical question is how much leverage the South African government has as catalytic influence to this change.
The later part of the book suggests that the success of the interventions of the international community in Zimbabwe depend upon the contribution, collaboration, and or return of Zimbabweans in the Diaspora. He suggests a 'reparations and reconciliation forum' that would address the issue of retribution and forgiveness to secure the new order.
The epilogue of the book is an ominous warning that South Africa may head down the same road as Zimbabwe. On this issue, and on balance, the author does not adequately address the differences in history, style and outlook between ANC and Zanu PF.
On the whole this is an excellent book. While readers will come to their own conclusions on the prognosis and remedies for Zimbabwe's, the book provides a valuable insight into the state of affairs in present day Zimbabwe, and Southern Africa.
