Conakry — In Conakry, the Guinean capital lying on the Atlantic shoreline, it is the season of the Harmattan, when the rains have given way to the dry dust-laden wind of that name, which brings hazy days and nights.
Early Wednesday evening, a lazy half moon was trying to break through the thin clouds of the "Harmattan Haze" when the news started spreading: President Lansana Conte had backed down in the face of a general strike and accepted the principle of appointing a prime minister with extensive executive powers.
For 15 days now, Conte, who seized power in a 1984 coup but has since won three elections, has been refusing to transfer his executive powers to a "consensus prime minister," as demanded by trade unions which argue that he is too sick to govern. At 72, Conte is known to be suffering from severe diabetes.
On January 10, the unions launched the indefinite, nation-wide strike to protest against the high cost of living, the mismanagement of the economy and the president's interference with the justice system. (In late December, Conte personally went to the central jail in Conakry to release Mamadou Sylla and Fode Souma, two men accused of corruption.)
The strike and ensuing clashes between security forces and demonstrators have officially claimed 45 lives so far. Some reports indicate a death toll double or triple the official figures. Monday was the bloodiest day, when as many as 17 people were killed in the capital.
In his 23-year long reign, Conte has never seen such a popular mobilization against his regime, one which has been kept in power by armed forces which have been enjoying all kinds of economic and financial privileges in return for their loyalty to the president. Guinea, rich in natural and mineral resources, has about two-thirds of the world's bauxite reserves, but the mines are currently closed, costing the country millions of dollars each day.
Last Saturday, measuring the gravity of the situation, Conte made one of his extremely rare speeches on radio and television, in which he appealed for the support of the people and the army.
What does it mean now for Guinea that he has finally accepted the appointment of a prime minister? Who will be the winners and the losers in this new montage? Two scenarios come to mind:
- Conte has realized he can no longer hold hostage a country of some 10 million inhabitants and really has decided to relinquish power to a prime minister who will "play the game" and grant him and his family immunity for past wrongdoings. If this happens, not only the current civilian leadership but the members of the army will lose their privileges and expose themselves to arrest and prosecution for activities ranging from financial misdemeanours to human rights abuses and crimes against humanity. Will the army sit and watch while all its privileges are revoked? Not likely.
- Conte is just buying time and will tackle head-on any prime minister who would strip him of his executive powers. In this scenario, the country will sink into institutional deadlock and Guineans will be the losers. New general strikes, new demonstrations and new killings will follow, paving the way to an inevitable military takeover. Whether in a matter of hours, days, weeks, or months, it appears probable that the military will try to safeguard its position by making threats or, even worse by stepping into the political arena.
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There has never been a more appropriate time than now to send a clear signal to the armed forces that the Guinean people, the West African community, the African Union and the international community at large will tolerate neither a military coup nor a continuation of the corrupt and autocratic rule that has crippled the nation and deprived the populace of democratic rights and economic prospects.
This reflection was written from Conakry by a special correspondent.
