Lagos — Sixty million voters head to the polls today to elect the leader who will succeed Olusegun Obasanjo as president of Nigeria.
Twenty-five candidates are vying for the presidency of Africa's most populous country, in a poll surrounded by uncertainty up until hours before the election.
The specter of more violence, similar to that which erupted during last week's gubernatorial and state assembly elections, still looms in many areas, particularly because of mixed signals from within the opposition and also because of the high stakes attached to the outcome.
The continent's largest oil-producing country, Nigeria has a long history of military rule, with various regimes taking turns overthrowing administrations and being overthrown. The cycle of coups came to a halt in 1999 when a caretaker government established after the death of General Sani Abacha organized elections that brought Obasanjo to power. He won another term in 2003 and must now retire, according to term limits imposed by the Nigerian Constitution.
The 2007 elections can be said to mark the country's first truly democratic transition, since for the first time since independence in 1960 an elected civilian government will hand over power to another civilian administration.
The winner of today's election will likely be one of three men, all political heavyweights from the predominantly Muslim north of the country. Umaru Musa Yar'Adua of the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) is seen by many as Obasanjo's chosen successor. Atiku Abubakar, the country's vice president, defected from the PDP to run under the banner of the Action Congress (AC). And Muhammadu Buhari, a retired army general and former military head of state, is the candidate of the All Nigerian Peoples' Party.
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Obasanjo has thrown his weight behind Yar'Adua, whose elder brother, the late Shehu Yar'Adua, was a close ally and brother-in-arms of the current president, alongside whom he served as an army officer during the 1967-70 Biafra war. A major challenge for him will be to cast himself as his own man, not Obasanjo's puppet.
Abubakar's campaign has faced the biggest difficulties over the months leading to the election. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), which oversees the electoral process, barred him from standing after he was indicted on corruption charges. The vice president took Inec to court, arguing that the commission lacked the legal authority to invalidate a candidacy. The Supreme Court agreed with him on Monday, a late ruling that has contributed to Inec's removal of all candidates' pictures from ballot papers. Abubakar is popular in the north and in Lagos state, where an AC candidate was elected governor, and his candidacy poses a major challenge to Yar'Adua.
Buhari has over the years developed a reputation for bringing discipline and rigor to government. But his success will depend on whether he can persuade voters to overlook his past as a military ruler.
Observers from the rest of Africa and the West have been deployed across the country. They include former United States Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and Sir Dawda Kairaba, former head of state of the Gambia.
