Voters in the West African nation of Mali head to the polls on Sunday to elect their president for the next five years in an election that may signal the end of consensus politics.
Incumbent Amadou Toumani Touré is expected to defeat his seven challengers, including the first woman ever cleared to run, Aminata Sidibé, a university professor campaigning on a pro-environment platform. Close to a thousand election observers have been accredited to monitor the polls, according to L'Éssor, a government-run daily.
Not so long ago "ATT" – as the 59-year old Touré is called – was a hero for millions both within and outside Mali. An army colonel, he led a successful coup in 1991, ousting then-president Moussa Traoré, whose autocratic style had alienated much of the country.
He launched broad political consultations with all Malian stakeholders. A new constitution was drafted, which restricted the president's mandate to a maximum of two consecutive terms. In 1992 Touré organized elections but did not run, and graciously stepped down when Alpha Oumar Konaré, a civilian, was elected president.
In 2002 Touré ran for president and was elected. Branding himself as the non-partisan president of all Malians, he formed an inclusive government in which all the major parties were represented. He then took on development initiatives, such as housing, and also encouraged oil exploration and gold mining.
But Mali remains a very poor country, ranking 175 out of 177 in the United Nations Development Programme's 2006 human development report. Only Sierra Leone and Niger are poorer.
The last week of campaigning has focused on education, health, access to water, migration to Europe, and the future of the cotton industry. Stalled debate over a new world trade deal, including free access to developed countries' markets, and uncertainty over European-sponsored Economic Partnership Accords threatens Mali's cotton producers.
Today Touré is still popular, but the consensus that once made the Malian exception has shown signs of erosion. Dissent has emerged from within the ranks of the Alliance for Democracy and Progress (ADP), a coalition that unites over a dozen parties behind Touré's candidacy, including the Alliance for Democracy in Mali (Adema), the former ruling party.
Touré's toughest challenger is Ibrahima Boubacar Kéïta ("IBK"), a former Adema official and the current speaker of the National Assembly. Kéïta, 62, was prime minister under Konaré. He came third in the 2002 presidential election and is running again under the banner of the Rallye for Mali (RPM), which he formed in 2001. Like Touré, he too is supported by a coalition, the Front for Democracy and the Republic (FDR).
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Another serious challenger is Soumeylou Boubeye Maïga, a former Adema vice-president, who had served under both Konaré and ATT in various capacities, including as intelligence chief and defence minister. He was expelled from Adema last November for opposing the party's endorsement of ATT's re-election bid. He is running as the Convergence 2007 candidate.
But Touré's camp remains confident despite these two potentially strong adversaries. Pointing to their candidate's achievements, they have adopted takokélen ('single take' in Bambara) as their campaign slogan, to signal their assurance of a first-round victory.
The opposition rejects that scenario as wishful thinking at best, and intent to cheat at worst. "Takokélen is impossible," Oumar Mariko, this year's youngest candidate and former student leader told Les Échos, a Malian daily paper critical of ATT. "If they try to force it on us, we will respond accordingly," he reportedly said.
As a response, opposition activists have coined their own counter-slogan: takaprin (fall), which predicts the unlikely scenario of a first-round defeat for Touré.
Beyond the slogan war, the question is whether Touré's nonpartisan stand will survive his re-election.
