Dakar — On the eve of the elections in Sierra Leone, political rejuvenation and renewal are in the air, Carolyn Norris, West Africa project director of the International Crisis Group, tells allAfrica's François Gouahinga and N'date Gningue. She was interviewed in Dakar, Senegal.
Has everything been done to ensure a free and fair election?
I went to Sierra Leone last month, and from what I saw I can say that the preparations were well ahead. Voter registration was under way, and the candidates were well established. So the basic elements were in place. The real challenge for the poll organizers will be on election day. This is the rainy season and there are enormous logistical problems in a country...without much infrastructure and without support from the United Nations.
Will the makeup of the National Electoral Commission give it the kind of impartiality that is expected?
A lot of hope is being put into that electoral commission and the general understanding is that it is independent of all the parties, particularly the two major parties, which is probably the most important thing. There is a general respect for the chair – Christiana Thorpe. There have been complaints about various stages of the process of registering voters, and then there was a period where you could actually check if your name was on the list, and there were complaints made during that time, but there's a general feeling that those have been dealt with fairly and in a timely fashion.
What are the stakes for the electorate?
As far as the presidential election goes, it is clear that there will be change, because the current president will not be running. But I think even if the ruling party won, people are expecting an improvement of the economic situation. Second, there is a need for the rejuvenation of the political class, and I think this has already started. A lot of the candidates are young and have not run for office before. So this brings a lot of hope for a fairly young population that one day they too will have the opportunity to bring about change.
Do you think ethnicity or regionalism will play a role in this election?
I would put it more in regional terms, in that the North is more traditionally an APC stronghold, and the South and East an SLPP stronghold. But what the arrival of the third party – the PMDC – has done is divided some of those more accepted and traditional loyalties. And so I think that while those ethnic and party affiliations will definitely be an issue, it's a much more open contest than we've seen previously.
And what I've certainly felt was that the last election was one where people had to be quite cautious, because if things didn't go well it would be immediately the path back to conflict. Now people are feeling far enough away from the conflict that it's a time for real change and a real renewal of the political scene.
Can you tell us in what ways the new electoral system will affect the interplay of the various constituencies in who gains the majority?
That's the really big question, and I think it's one reason why people are finding it very difficult to predict what the result will be, because there's been a change of boundaries, as you suggest; but there's also been a change back to the point of actually having you vote for your local member of parliament as opposed to voting on a proportional representation list.
Proportional representation was introduced as an emergency measure around the conflict period because it was felt that the population was so displaced that to have a local candidate didn't make much sense...Now that it's much more localized, there's been much more competition to be the candidate for a particular constituency.
The statistics show that there are actually fewer women involved than there were when they had lists produced by each of the parties. That's believed to be because the battle to get your nomination has been quite robust and also has required quite a bit of money...and that has effectively discriminated against quite a few potential women candidates.
What is the role that the chieftaincy may play in determining the outcome?
The chiefs were traditionally pro-SLPP but there have been one or two notable cases where that has not been the case. I think that role of the chief suggesting, quite directly, how their people should vote, is one of voter - of civic - education that really needs to be done. It should be an individual choice and not a choice organized or suggested by somebody else in a position of authority.
Among the three main presidential candidates, who is most likely to win?
I don't know. There's been much discussion on this issue, and from what I heard there is the possibility that we may have two rounds of voting. But as I say, with the late arrival of a third party it is difficult to predict. As you know, it is easier to win when you are in power than when you are the challenger, but I can't tell you who will win.
What is the security situation like?
In general terms it has very, very much improved. I think these elections will be a test to see just how consolidated that improvement is. In the first week after the electoral period formally opened there were scuffles, and the police actually said themselves that they were ill-equipped to deal with the potential for increased tension between the different parties. So the situation is a bit tense at the moment, but I think that with the police having made that quite clear - that they are anxious about their capacity - there is extra help on hand for them, and so far things have been quite calm.
What is the role that the international community is expected to play?
There has been a lot of attention paid to these elections by the international community, alongside a very large number of [local] NGOs. The international community's support, running parallel to the Sierra Leonean observation of the elections, is very important. Observers have been there right throughout the process; it's not just a question of appearing on election day and seeing what happens with the ballot boxes. There has been some financial support from the international community...which has been very important.
How likely is it that on election night somebody is not happy with the outcome and resorts to violence?
It may not be quite as quick as the night of the election itself, but I think that the days...of results becoming known, is going to be a very tense period. If there is a general feeling that the election has been free and fair, I think there's a maturity to accept that 'OK, my candidate didn't win'. But if there are serious allegations of fraud, that's when people may take to the streets.
Are there any security measures to prevent a potential arms flow from neighboring countries?
I don't know of any particular measures, and to be honest I don't see that as the most important threat. I think it's more likely to be much more low-level – well, heightened tension – but not using heavy weapons, that sort of thing.
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It's more likely to be tension within communities...particularly in a town like Bo, which is the second city of Sierra Leone, where there's this big division between the SLPP and the PMDC, or in Freetown, which, partly because of its geography – it's on a peninsula – is quite a congested city.
That's where you get people from all the parties together in one place, and so they would be the two hot spots, I would imagine, if there is a dispute about the results, where there could be flare-ups of tension.
Ten years after the election, what kind of country do you think Sierra Leoneans will wake up to?
Ten years hence, I would hope that the conflict that we have seen would be part of its rather distant history, because the country has moved on a long way since that period. But if that's going to happen, the country needs to take a far stronger role in determining its own destiny. Since the conflict there's been a lot of international attention to Sierra Leone, and really the country has to move ahead on its own terms and be setting the tone of how it wants to develop itself.
And I think we have to have huge economic reforms so that the wealth of that country can be brought to the benefit of a far wider section of the population. The government has to tackle the issues of corruption if we're going to move ahead. [There also needs to be] a real consolidation of the security sector – when the army and the police can actually feel that they are in a position to control unrest.
The other vital issue is that apart from the Special Court for Sierra Leone, the domestic judicial system [needs to be] strengthened to be able to deal with mistakes that are inevitably made in every country so that there is accountability for wrongdoing, not just in terms of human rights abuse but in terms of political mistakes, political violence, economic mismanagement and ordinary criminal activities.
