At a time of historically high oil prices, a model has emerged in Nigeria's oil-rich Niger Delta that could allow more than a million barrels per day of production to come back on-stream without additional exploration or even new investment in production facilities – if only the Nigerian government would pursue it.
Three months ago the government announced a decision to replace Shell Petroleum Development Company as operator of oil concessions in Ogoniland in the Niger Delta. Shell had been at the center of a firestorm, accused by many Ogoni activists of having been complicit in a system that has provided little benefit in jobs or money from local oil production, and insensitive to the environmental damage caused by numerous oil spills and 24-hour-a-day flaring of gas. Ogoniland is oil rich but dirt poor.
Over the past 15 years, the Ogoni people have engaged in non-violent actions to seek to benefit from the oil under their feet, to repair the extreme environmental damage from past production and to have a say in the management of the region's oilfields. This approach was remarkable, given the brutality of the Nigerian military government in response to their protests, including the execution of author, activist, and environmentalist Ken Saro-Wiwa. An advocate of non-violent resistance, he and eight colleagues were hanged by the dictator, Sani Abacha, in 1995 following a kangaroo court trial where they were convicted of inciting violence in which four Ogoni elders were murdered.
Many other groups in the Niger Delta have responded to their disempowerment and subjugation through a campaign of kidnappings, vandalism and even murder. But the Ogoni stuck to their non-violent ways. Many felt vindicated last June when President Umaru Yar'Adua not only decided to replace Shell but also suggested that the Ogoni would be part of an inclusive process aimed at resuming oil production in the area.
But this historic opportunity for ending one of the longest running conflicts in the Niger Delta is being squandered. The Yar'Adua government now seems ready to go ahead and identify a new operator for the region without consultations with the local population and without addressing issues of environmental clean-up, community engagement in the operations, or distribution of revenues.
The government has already announced unilaterally that the concession will be taken over by the state-owned Nigerian Petroleum Development Company, and there are reports that the giant Russian company Gazprom – not particularly noted for its corporate responsibility or inclusive management – will actually run the operation.
This unilateral approach could have large ramifications. The wave of violence in the Niger Delta is associated with the issues at the very heart of Ogoni discontent, and has resulted in loss of life, in oil fields that cannot be developed, and in lost production to the tune of one million barrels per day or more.
Production potential in Ogoniland is relatively small – until oil production ceased in 1993 because of the current dispute, the output was about 28,000 barrels per day. Nevertheless, resolution of the Ogoni dispute could send a powerful message that non-violence works, change the tactics of violent activists in the region and establish a model for negotiated settlements.
Two practical steps by President Yar'Adua could make all the difference. First, he could initiate an inclusive process involving community leaders and organizations from Ogoniland in the decision as to which oil firm will have the lead operating role in production in their land. Second, he could commit to negotiating a tripartite agreement between the government, Ogoni representatives and an entering oil company to reinvest a portion of oil revenues in Ogoniland, provide jobs to local workers, control pollution and ensure security of oil company staff and installations.
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In May 2006, then-President Olusegun Obasanjo dedicated a memorial at the Peace and Freedom Centre in Bori in Ogoniland to honor all Ogoni leaders killed by mobs or executed by the government, including Ken Saro-Wiwa. While this was a welcome act of reconciliation, a longer-lasting tribute to the sacrifice of these lives would be to give the Ogoni people a strong voice in the issues that affect their lives and to empower them to address the poverty and environmental degradation of their homeland.
Donald Steinberg, deputy president of International Crisis Group, has served as United States ambassador to Angola and special assistant for African Affairs to President Clinton; Nnamdi Obasi is an International Crisis Group senior analyst.
