In early September, we participated in a meeting at a prestigious think tank in Washington, DC, where the discussion focused on Nigeria and more effective ways to address the almost intractable problem in the Niger Delta. The Delta has been a conflict 20 years in the making, where mismanagement of the oil revenues and extreme poverty have left a population disenfranchised. The feelings of hopelessness have provided fertile ground for militants to take matters into their own hands.
The six panel participants spoke about a new and bold framework for stakeholder engagement, and significant financial commitments were announced to support the initiative. These commitments would soon be unveiled at the Clinton Global Initiative in New York City the following week.
The closing speaker, Dr. Obiageli "Oby" Ezekwesili, the World Bank's top African expert, turned the discussion on its head. Ezekwesili, formerly a senior Nigerian official, commended the efforts and applauded the new resources made available, but that's where the celebratory talk ended.
"The problem of the Niger Delta is the problem of the Nigerian government and ultimately, this is where it needs to be solved," Ezekwesili said. "The benefits of governance must be translated to the people of Nigeria, that's when the problems will move towards resolution."
She told the audience that Nigeria's stakeholders must help educate the Nigerian people about what to insist on from their leaders. She called it "demand driven" accountability and governance.
Politics of the Past
If you comb through the international debate on the forthcoming Nigerian elections, a vote that will produce a president, 36 governors and 469 members of the House and Senate, you don't see Ezekwesili's question asked very often - if at all.
Instead, it is argued in most Western circles that the power sharing agreement between the north and the south, known as "zoning," is the glue that holds the country together – the accepted formula for stability. Zoning implies that the Nigerian presidency rotates from the Muslim north to the Christian south, usually defined as a cycle of two presidential terms or eight years.
President Olusegun Obasanjo held the presidency from 1999 to 2007. He was a southern Christian. In an election that was marred by fraud, his hand-picked successor, Umaru Yar'Adua, a Muslim from Kaduna in the north, claimed the office.
But this power-sharing arrangement did not account for an act of God. So when Yar'Adua died of a kidney ailment earlier this year, his southern Christian vice president, Goodluck Jonathan, assumed the office. This development was "out of turn," according to the established order.
Now President Jonathan has announced his intention to run for president and some argue that the delicate balance is unwinding to the peril of American national security interests.
John Campbell, former U.S. ambassador to Nigeria, speaks for many when he stated in a recent article in Foreign Policy that "the end of a power-sharing arrangement between the Muslim north and the Christian south, as now seems likely, could lead to post-election sectarian violence, paralysis of the executive branch, and even a coup."
Campbell is not alone. Africa Confidential, a source for business intelligence on the continent, also tells its readers that politics in Nigeria is a game of the elite.
Nigerian Voices for Change
Many prominent Nigerians, however, think zoning should be relegated to the dustbin of history, particularly as Nigeria celebrates 50 years of independence.
Former minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Nasir el Rufai – now a leading voice in civil society through the Save Nigeria Group (SNG) – argues this point in an article published on allAfrica.com earlier this year.
"Simplistic analysis of the reasons for Nigeria's problems of governance – that Christians are at odds with Muslims, the north with the south – has distracted the world's attention from what many Nigerians believe is the principal threat facing our country: the disenfranchised youth, a government that lacks competency and credibility and a sense of hopelessness and despair about the future," he explained.
"Nigeria needs a government accountable to its people that would invest billions of dollars of oil monies in power generation, roads, healthcare and the like; a government that would give Nigerian youth a channel for their genius – high-caliber universities and meaningful jobs."
Another dissenter is Nuhu Ribadu, the renowned anti-corruption crusader and former head of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission of Nigeria (EFCC). Ribadu returned to Nigeria from self-imposed exile in August of this year following two assassination attempts. On 20 September, he announced his intention to run for the presidency of Nigeria on the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) ticket. He is running on a platform to return the government of Nigeria to its rightful owners – the people. He hopes to model his campaign on an appeal like that of U.S. President Barack Obama, by addressing the youth of Nigeria that comprise more than 65 percent of the population.
Ribadu, like El Rufai, believes that the political future of 130 million people can no longer be settled in the backroom by the ruling elites based upon a formula that was designed to perpetuate the rule of the few over the many.
Campbell mentions El Rufai and Ribadu, crediting them as agents of reform with the ability to restore public faith in political systems. But at the same time, he seems to dismiss their relevancy and the forces within the country that are advocating for change, citing the power vice of the ruling elite.
We must reject the notion that the status quo in Nigeria is synonymous with stability when all evidence points to the contrary.
We must ask the question – stability on whose terms and at what costs?
We must answer the challenge that Dr. Ezekwesili posed to the DC gathering: how do you empower a community with a will and a voice?
It's the Election
So what's the prescription for change in Nigeria, and what can the United States do?
First, it can throw its support behind the people of Nigeria and help empower them through the holding of a free and fair election now scheduled for early next year.
The United States can make it clear that it will not recognize a government that emerges from a corrupted process like that of Nigeria in 2007, or Kenya in 2008 or Zimbabwe in 2008. The U.S. government can use its diplomatic clout with the African Union and the European Union to enforce that stance.
Second, the voter roll must be made correct. An open election starts with the preparation of a representative voter roll, and the plan of the election commission to deploy 120,000 voting capture machines and train 360,000 personnel is unworkable and should be revisited. While Attahiru Jega, chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission, appears to be independent and truly committed to the holding of a free and fair election, he is challenged by weak staff capacity. This is why he is correctly calling for a postponement of the scheduled January elections to as far back as April.
Third, all technology must be examined for its application to the conduct of an acceptable election, especially in light of the millions of cell phone users and those with access to the Internet. The National Democratic Institute (NDI), for example, helped to mobilize a Preliminary Vote Tabulation (PVT) in Ghana through SMS technology with 4,000 civil society operatives that played an essential role in validating Ghana's historic election in 2009, won by only 50,000 votes. The Ushahidi Platform developed in Kenya allows anyone to gather distributed data via SMS, email or web and visualize it on a map or timeline in order to create the simplest way of aggregating information from the public for use in crisis response. A new Nigerian initiative called Pay4me – a payment transaction via the Internet for Nigerian citizens – would permit a Nigerian to contribute to a political party of his or her choice through any Internet café of donations of as little as 100 naira.
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Fourth, let's conduct polling – early and often – to bring to Nigeria this powerful validator for the voice of the Nigerian people. The U.S. Agency for International Development and the Department for International Development of the United Kingdom should pay for credible polling to be conducted in regular intervals up to the election date. Polling not only allows the public to learn what their neighbors think about the candidates, the parties and their platforms, but also helps parties to better gauge their strong and weak areas and minimizes suspicions that lead to the explosion of challenges that put elections into the questionable category unnecessarily.
Finally, let's support civil society in a way that lasts beyond the vote. Traditional programs should be employed, targeting the vulnerable populations, particularly women and girls. Voters must understand what government should do for them and what they have a right to demand. The linkage between the citizen and his or her representative at the local, state and national level has not been fully explained to a sufficient number of Nigerians. It is past time that the Nigerian voters understand the power they have to affect the course and composition of their government.
Time will tell what the growing pressure for reform will accomplish in a country that has experienced severely constricted potential. Our bet should be with the people of Nigeria.
K. Riva Levinson is managing director of KRL International, a consultancy dedicated to emerging markets. She has worked on Africa issues for more than 20 years. Gregory Simpkins, an international development specialist, is founder of the Africa Democracy Network and currently advises the Leon H. Sullivan Foundation.
