Excerpts from "African Markets Revealed", published by the Standard Bank:
While the global environment is extremely supportive for investment-led growth across the African continent, there are a number of countries facing significant political risk in the coming year which will dampen investment enthusiasm.
We identify a few of the most important political risks for the continent from our perspective.
Nigeria: incumbency is key
According to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the presidential poll will be held on 9 April, a week after the parliamentary elections and a week prior to governorship and state assembly elections.
Incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan formally launched his campaign in Oct. Yet perhaps the key election has already taken place at the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) primaries on 13 Jan 11, when the presidential candidate was chosen. Assisted by incumbency Jonathan convincingly beat Atiku Abubakar.
The good money should certainly be on Jonathan winning the April poll. Perhaps the key risk now comes from the ability of the INEC to deliver a free and fair election, recognized by all parties.
Côte d’Ivoire: taking it to breaking point
According the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) and thus most of the local population and the international community, President Laurent Gbagbo was defeated by Alassane Ouattara in the 28 Nov 2010 presidential election run-off.
The Constitutional Court proved sympathetic to Gbagbo’s demands to ignore sections of the vote and declared him President. The impasse threatens to take the country back to civil war. This is not our core scenario.
Ouattara clearly has moral democratic authority and the support of the international and African diplomatic community. EU and UN sanctions look likely which will postpone debt relief completion point under the HIPC initiative due in 2011.
External political pressure is being combined with dissention from high profile figures of Gbagbo’s Ivorian Popular Front (FPI). Clearly the hardcore FPI leadership as well as the presidential guard and some factions of the gendarmerie have plenty to lose if Ouattara were to become president.
Although security forces have predominantly supported Gbagbo in the south, we believe moderate elements within the army (including many senior officers) are unlikely to back an increasingly isolated regime.
Democratic Republic of Congo: spend, spend, spend
There are already signs of excess fiscal spending ahead of DRC’s general elections planned for Nov 11 as President Joseph Kabila prepares to stand again.
The need for the incumbent to spend is increased by the fact that the contest is likely to be a close race as veteran opposition leader Etienne Tshisekedi of the UPDS has announced he will run.
Dissensions have also surfaced in the ruling coalition between Kabila’s PPRD and the pro- Lumumbist PALU. Besides, Vital Kamerhe, who has been a close ally of Kabila until recently and is a former President of the National Assembly, will also challenge the incumbent president.
While Jean-Paul Bemba is tried by the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes, his political organization (MLC) still formally remains the first opposition party in the country.
Zambia: will the coalitions hold?
Zambia will most likely hold presidential and parliamentary elections in Sep 11.
Our core scenario is that the ruling Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) retain power. In particular, we are not convinced that the opposition coalition between the Patriotic Front (PF) and United Party for National Development (UPND) will be able to hold together, once again stumbling on a single presidential candidate.
Our core scenario also requires incumbent President Rupiah Banda to hold his MMD party together, with the litmus test being his nomination as MMD presidential candidate in the party’s primaries to be held earlier in 2011.
Uganda: end of an era?
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President Yoweri Museveni of the National Resistance Movement (NRM) will run in the Feb 2011 presidential contest.
He is probably the favorite to win, but it is far from a done deal. His main challenger is Kizza Besigye of the Forum for Democratic Change, who also stood in 2001 and 2006.
Other candidates such as Norbert Mao of the Democratic Party and Olara Otunnu of the Uganda Peoples Congress are likely to perform well. With the contest likely to be close, the potential for a disputed outcome is not insignificant.
Zimbabwe: early elections loom
The power sharing government between President Robert Mugabe’s Zimbabwean African National Union – Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) and Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) has reached an impasse.
President Mugabe is now calling for early presidential and parliamentary elections in 2011, while Tsvangirai would prefer to only hold a presidential poll at this stage. Tsvangirai argues that the 2008 parliamentary results are not in dispute in contrast with the presidential result where he boycotted the run-off.
