Washington, DC — The self-immolation of Tunisia's Muhammad Bouazizi last month inspired the street protests that led to the downfall of longtime ruler Zine el Abidine ben Ali. The unemployed graduate's personal desperation in the face of his country's socio-economic deterioration also embodied the widespread frustrations in his home country and abroad. This deep-seated anger - aimed at government corruption, oppressive autocratic rule and high unemployment - spans a wide-ranging demographic, including youth, women, trade unionists and human rights activists. With domino-like effect, social media outlets are being used to plan or conduct street protests across the region, including Africa's largest country, Sudan.
A nation at the precipice of its own separation, following an overwhelming vote for independence in last month's referendum on southern Sudan, the country's internal governance challenges cannot be isolated from the anti-government protests elsewhere. Youth groups in and around Sudan's capitol, Khartoum, have employed Twitter and Facebook groups, numbering in the thousands, to call for and organize street protests. On 30 January, police disrupted half a dozen separate demonstrations, arresting and injuring an unknown number of people. Two universities were closed and one student was killed.
The protests in Sudan place additional pressure on Sudan's ruling National Congress Party, as it manages conflict in Darfur and negotiates the final elements of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement with southern Sudan. The first day of widespread street demonstrations coincided with the Southern Sudan Referendum Bureau's announcement of preliminary results for the south's independence referendum. Ninety-nine per cent of southerners voted for secession.
With pressures mounting, Sudanese authorities jailed long-time opposition leader, Dr. Hassan Al-Turabi in mid-January. While the arrest followed his call for 'Tunisian-style' uprisings in Khartoum to protest rising commodity and food prices, Turabi also has been accused of supporting various armed rebel groups in Darfur.
Sudan's long history of internal conflict and tensions between central authorities and powerful peripheral constituencies has produced a highly fractured state. Politico-military organizations among the marginalized peoples of Sudan include the Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army in the south, the Beja Congress in the east and multiple rebel groups from the Darfur region to the west, which have registered their grievances through decades of political organization and armed resistance.
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By contrast, the latest spate of street demonstrations in Sudan was largely confined to the north. Despite this fact, the significance of Sudan's street demonstrations should not be overlooked, as they add an additional element to the numerous internal challenges facing President Omar al-Bashir. The National Congress Party could find itself enclosed from all directions.
Besides popular dissatisfaction over the economic crisis, Sudan's government is beset with internal divisions over its handling of the agreement for southern succession. If the peace accord that led to the referendum is implemented to its full extent, the ruling party will have presided over the loss of one-third of Sudan's population and landmass, as well as 70-80% of its current oil revenue.
The northern political atmosphere is further complicated by the prospect of dissatisfaction arising from the accord's provision for popular consultations in Southern Kordofan and Southern Blue Nile states, as well as by Bashir's indictment by the International Criminal Court at the Hague for crimes against humanity, stemming from the Darfur conflict.
As the south approaches independence within six months, these internal dramas will continue. Even if the current wave of largely student protests fails to gather enough momentum to topple the government, their impact, alongside other elements within Sudan, could be significant.
Travis L. Adkins is an International Affairs Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
