Long-serving Basotho Prime Minister Pakalitha Mosisili returns to power on Tuesday, faced with an array of challenges including holding together a coalition government, handling the fallout from corruption charges against some of its key members, and dealing with politically polarised security forces.
The government-aligned Lesotho News Agency reports that large screens are being erected at overflow venues in the capital, Maseru, to accommodate the crowds wanting to attend Mosisili's inauguration, which will take place at the 20,000-seat Setsoto Stadium two days after his 70th birthday.
The South African government has announced that President Jacob Zuma will attend, together with his deputy, Cyril Ramaphosa, who nursed the drawn-out process in which new elections were arranged last month following an army rebellion and the breakup of the last coalition government.
Mosisili ruled as Prime Minister from 1998 to 2012 before being replaced by a coalition headed by Tom Thabane of the All Basotho Convention (ABC). However, Thabane's government became mired in political deadlock last year when, faced with coalition infighting and a no-confidence motion, he suspended parliament.
The deadlock escalated into a security crisis when Thabane fired the army chief, Lieutenant General Tlali Kamoli, and troops responded by leaving their barracks, taking to the streets of Maseru and seizing police stations. Thabane fled the country, triggering regional diplomatic intervention by the Southern African Development Community (SADC).
Thabane's ABC went into last month's elections with 30 seats in the National Assembly, far fewer than Mosisili's Democratic Congress (DC), which had 48. Boosted by strong support in Maseru and the more urbanised eastern lowlands, Thabane dramatically increased his representation to 46 seats, while Mosisili – whose main strength lies in the mountainous areas of the west – lost one seat.
The change in government was brought about by the election's biggest loser, the Lesotho Congress for Democracy (LCD), a junior partner in the Thabane coalition. Although its representation plunged from 26 seats to 12, its decision to transfer its allegiance to a Mosisili-led government guaranteed its return to office.
The fractious nature of Basotho politics – ironic in a nation comprising a single ethnic group and sharing the same language – gives Mosisili perhaps his biggest challenge: merely keeping the coalition in one piece.
Just one example illustrates his difficulty: under the terms of the coalition, LCD leader Mothetjoa Metsing becomes deputy prime minister, a post that the deputy leader of Mosisili's DC, Monyane Moleleki, might have expected to hold after more than two decades of service in ministerial posts.
As the director of Transformation Resource Center in Maseru, Tšoeu Petlane, said to AllAfrica: "Will Moleleki knuckle down and accept being passed over once more?" Other parties are already making suggestions – hotly denied by Moleleki - that he is thinking of jumping ship.
The same two figures are at the centre of another challenge: both Metsing and Moleleki face corruption charges, and Metsing has recently lost a court bid to have anti-corruption legislation declared unconstitutional.
Mosisili has told the Lesotho Times that the country's anti-corruption agency, the Directorate on Corruption and Economic Offences, "will continue with its mandate to eliminate corruption in our society" but it is unclear how Metsing going on trial will affect daily governance.
Assuming the coalition survives, depoliticising the security forces has been identified by SADC as key to long-term stability in Lesotho.
The army's intervention last year was only the latest in a history – dating back almost to independence – of political interference by military leaders, and Ramaphosa brokered the temporary exile of key army and police chiefs – including General Kamoli – in the run-up to last month's elections.
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Mosisili has said security reform will be a major priority for his government. "Stability within the security institutions should be treated as an urgent matter immediately after our coalition... takes over government," he told the Times. "Under my watch, all the coalition partners will work together towards ensuring the public service remains apolitical."
But during the news conference announcing the coalition, he also said Kamoli would return to office, leading Tšoeu Petlane to identify the question of how to guarantee the security of former PM Thabane as one of the "make-or-break issues" facing the new coalition government.
If, in the face of the multiple threats to a stable, clean and secure administration, Mosisili stumbles, Thabane will surely be standing in the wings to watch him fall, and then try to cobble together another coalition to take his place on the merry-go-round that is politics in Lesotho.
