Lesotho: Tensions as Basotho Await Report On Probe of Military

Photo by Michael J. Jordan
From left, South African Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa, regional mediator on Lesotho, with Lt. Gen. Tlali Kamoli, who was later appointed the country's military chief, and Brigadier Maaparankoe Mahao, who was fired to make way for Kamoli and was later assassinated.
20 November 2015
allAfrica.com
guest column

Lesotho is on tenterhooks as it awaits the report of a regional commission of inquiry into issues arising from the partisan handling of and behaviour by the country's army - including the killing by soldiers earlier this year of the former defence chief, Lieutenant General Maaparankoe Mahao. Tsoeu Petlane writes from Maseru.

The report of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) commission of inquiry into the political and security crisis in Lesotho is scheduled to be released this weekend in Maputo.

Led by Botswana's Justice Mphaphi Phumaphi, the commission was mandated to investigate and make recommendations on issues including:

  • The legality of the appointment in 2014 by then Prime Minister Thomas Thabane of Maaparankoe Mahao as commander of the Lesotho Defence Force (LDF), and Mahao's subsequent firing in 2015 by current Prime Minister Pakalitha Mosisili;
  • The dismissal by Thabane and reinstatement by Mosisili of Tlali Kamoli as LDF commander;
  • The circumstances surrounding the killing of Mahao in June 2015, including the identity of the killers and their roles in the killing;
  • The effects of the reinstatement of Kamoli on the unity and coherence of the LDF; and
  • The veracity of allegations of a mutiny plot within the LDF in 2014.

The commission started its work in August. It completed its evidence gathering in November, having interviewed various actors from government, police and the army, the opposition and civil society. The evidence was collected in both public sessions and in camera, primarily due to personal and national security concerns.

The commission held sessions both in Lesotho and neighbouring South Africa, where three opposition party leaders, including former PM Thabane, and several military personnel have been in exile since May. This was done in order to allow the widest spectrum of voices to contribute to the investigations of the commission.

In Lesotho, the report is awaited with collective bated breath, primarily because there is widespread hope that it will lay bare the true causes of the perennial instability of the country, identify the killers of Mahao, and begin to identify the way forward for the country to emerge from its current quagmire.

But what will the Phumaphi Report really mean for Lesotho? One is tempted to be sceptical, given the history of commissions of inquiry.

Firstly, the commission remains threatened by a court challenge instituted by one of the witnesses, LDF officer Tefo Hashatsi, who wants virtually to have its work nullified from the beginning. If he succeeds in this suit, Phumaphi's work will have no effect in law, and his findings and recommendations will have to be disregarded. This can only heighten tensions in Lesotho.

Secondly, regardless of its content, the report may suffer the fate of many before it: being ignored by the executive. The Public Commissions Act gives the Prime Minister discretion to accept or reject commission recommendations, or to excise sections of their reports from the published versions.

As South African President Zuma has quipped, "a recommendation is a recommendation". The intransigence of political leaders, who can simply ignore the contents of commission reports (and have in the past) is cause for worry.

Third will be the "processing" of the report before publication, and the effect that this could have on its contents. The report is scheduled to be presented first to the SADC, probably to a special summit. Only up to four days after that will the Parliament of Lesotho receive the report.

This opens the possibility - or at least, and more importantly, the perception - that the report will be "doctored" and watered down to lessen the damage its findings might have on the reputations of some actors. This happened with the report of a commission of inquiry into the disputed election of 1998, leading to public outrage that fuelled the unprecedented disturbances of that year. The Phumaphi Commission faces a real possibility of suffering this fate.

Lastly, on whatever side the commission's report places the weight of blame and condemnation, there is bound to be displeasure within society. Given the current depth of rancour, managing reactions is going to be a nightmare.

Each of these factors makes for a worrying scenario once Justice Phumaphi publishes his report. It would be prudent for the Basotho, their leaders in all spheres of life and their partners, including other governments in SADC, to contemplate carefully the meaning of the Phumaphi "verdict" - for that is what ordinary people see it as - and to prepare for it honestly and with the future of the country in mind.

The events of 1998 should be a lesson to us: the widespread rioting and lawlessness they visited on the country should be an experience to avoid, but the electoral reforms which took place, giving Lesotho its unique electoral model, should be an example to follow.

Which way will Lesotho choose? Finding a happy and constructive medium between these extremes is not going to be easy.

Tsoeu Petlane is director of the Transformation Resource Centre, an NGO based in Maseru. He writes here in his personal capacity.

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