Accra — University of Ghana, 2019 Aggrey-Fraser-Guggisberg Memorial Lecture, March 21, 2019
Vice Chancellor Ebenezer Oduro Owusu, Professor Kwame Offei, Mrs. Mercy, friends, and colleagues of the University of Ghana, thank you for this honor of a lifetime – to give a lecture in the Great Hall, on this historic campus, where so much wisdom has been shared over the decades, including by one of my personal heroes, Kofi Annan.
I had the privilege to attend Kofi Annan's memorial service in September of last year and recall the words spoken by the current Secretary-General of the United Nations Antonio Guterres in his eulogy. He said:
"Kofi was someone who virtually anyone in the world could see themselves in, from those on the far reaches of poverty to the junior UN officer." "In Kofi," he said, "the world lost a standard-bearer of global cooperation, and the UN, an embodiment of its mission."
Thank you for allowing me to leave my mark on this hallowed spot.
I have another Ghanaian hero, who with God's grace, is here today, that is Professor E. Gyimah-Boadi. Affectionately known as The Prof. With the permission of the Vice-Chancellor, I would like to dedicate this lecture to him.
Born in 1953, the Prof has been a man on a mission—to strengthen Africa's nascent democratic institutions, and he is a product of this institution, first as an undergraduate student, then returning in 1986, after acquiring his Ph.D. in America, to teach. He retired 2014 as a distinguished professor.
Nearly every article I write or speech I deliver references his work as the co-founder for both the Center for Democratic Development in Ghana and the Afrobarometer. This lecture included.
Ghana is considered the cradle of democracy on the continent, its Gold Standard. The Prof, I believe, is democracy's Godfather.
I ask everyone to kindly take a moment and honor my dearest friend, and mentor, Prof. E. Gyimah-Boadi.
Riva in Africa:
Before I proceed, a bit about me, outside of my CV.
I made my first trip to Africa in July of 1987. I landed in Johannesburg, South Africa, and flew a single engine King Air across Namibia, into Southern Angola. The continent was a very different place in those days. Nelson Mandela was in prison on Robben Island. Apartheid was the governing policy of South Africa. Namibia was not an independent country and Cuban troops were in Angola propping up a Marxist government, with weapons supplied by the Soviet Union, including MIG Fighter Jets and Hind Helicopters.
I was 26 years old, and uncertain who held the moral authority in the global conflict being played out on African soil. At the same time, I was captured by the people, the expanse of the land, the diversity of the cultures, the new relationships I was forging, and most of all, the vast potential of the continent. And I have been coming back for the past 32 years. Through it all, I have come to realize that I am my best self when I here, in Africa.
I returned to Angola in 1992, after the détente between the US and the Soviet Union facilitated the country's first multi-party elections, where we learned the hard way, that a winner-take-all contest, free and fair, or not, cannot put to rest 19 years of civil war.
I came back to South Africa in 1994, as a UN observer for the country's first all-race election which saw prisoner Mandela, become President Mandela.
In the late 1990s, I met an exiled Liberian politician who captivated me. Her name was Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, and from that day, I began a 20-year odyssey of work with her, through a flawed election where she lost her bid for the presidency, to the regional war that unfolded, a tentative peace, and Liberia's first post-conflict election which saw the rise of the first woman democratically elected to lead an African nation.
I continued to work with President Sirleaf through her two terms as president, and was in the country, in January 2018, when she handed over the presidency to George Weah in the first democratic and peaceful transition of presidential power in Liberia in 75 years.
I am a student of Africa, but not a professor, nor an academic.
The knowledge I share does not come from libraries, classrooms or seminars, but from being on the front-lines of the continent's historical events. Witnessing the transition from dictatorship to democracy, from dependency on donor assistance, to the emergence of nations like Ghana, graduating from an IMF program this week, and looking at a future beyond aid.
As such, my methodology is anecdotal through observation, validated by statistical analysis from NGO's, think-tanks or other scholars, to whom I am indebted.
Nonetheless, I hope that my thoughts will inform debate and advance scholarly understanding.
Lecture Outline:
My lecture today is about the importance of Africa's activist generation to the future of democracy and shared prosperity.
I will outline moments in the development of democracy across Sub-Saharan Africa and provide examples where the activist generation, and its accompanying civil society movements, have succeeded in encouraging change.
I will share data which quantifies their importance, but likewise, reveals that their numbers are statistically low.
I will argue that our collective challenge is how to supercharge the power and influence of this group of citizens so that their moral authority translates into political authority, capable of driving institutional change.
I close with a warning. African governance is lagging well behind a population explosion that demands transformational change. If we do not act now, the consequences will be grave for Africa and global stability.
Historical Context:
Periodic elections have become the norm in many African countries since the 1990s, marking a major advance from dictatorships to democracy.
19 African incumbent leaders from 11 countries have been voted out of office since the end of colonialism , and s ince 2015, half of the Sub-Saharan African nations have had leadership transitions .
Again, Ghana leads the way, with the country completing its fourth consecutive peaceful transfer of presidential power in 2016 since returning to civilian rule in 1993.
The US-based Brookings Institution describes the march of democracy across the continent as often irregular. But, despite the challenges, notes the increasing number of positive outcomes, pushed by civic, electoral and youth-led movements who have turned their focus to the quality of the electoral process, hoping to avoid empty balloting that seeks to add legitimacy to entrenched officeholders and authoritarian leaders.
The BBC's Africa editor, Fergal Keane reporting from the DRC during its recent presidential elections, concludes that there is nothing more important in African politics during the last two decades than the rise of the activist generation, creating a growing sense of democracy as something more expansive and inclusive than a ballot box that can be stuffed with fake votes or stolen by a power elite.
Keane, like others, cites several demographic, technological and educational developments empowering this group of citizens who are unsettling politics across the continent.
Whatever the factors, this youth-driven activist generation has found their voice.
They wish to be defined by future possibilities, and not by past constraints. They are empowered, (as their parents never were) through education and technologies, with social media platforms connecting them with like-minded people across the globe.
They are unaccepting of a governing status quo that squanders their national resources and corrupts politics. They are nationalistic and proudly African.
They are the future. They are all of you here in this Great Hall.
The Dissatisfied Democrats:
The activist generation is succeeding in getting citizens to the streets to demand political and economic reforms. The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) recorded 3,791 protests in 2018, compared to 653 demonstrations in 2008.
These protests are not single events, they endure. Recent protests in Cameroon, Ethiopia, and Togo persisted for more than two years. As of this month, Sudanese protesters had turned out in more than two-dozen cities for two months to press President Omar al-Bashir to leave power.
Many variables impact the power-play dynamics, international support, (or isolation), the willingness of governments to deploy security forces against its citizens to suppress dissent, the strength of the economy (or its collapse), and other regional and external factors. But notwithstanding, in many instances, these activists have contributed to dramatic governance change.
Senegal:
In Senegal, in 2011, the nation's young people were simply fed up. Unreliable electricity, corruption, and a president, Abdoulaye Wade who, at the age of 85, was attempting to run for a third term. They put their demands to music with Senegalese rappers and formed Y'en a Marre (Fed Up).
Using the country's hip-hop scene, they recorded songs that became rallying cries, focusing on the rural areas in distant communities where nearly 70% of Senegalese lives.
Despite Wade's attempts to shut down dissent, he was defeated at the polls by Macky Sall in 2012, thanks in no small part, to Y'en a Marre's mobilization of the youth.
Burkina Faso:
In 2015, in Burkina Faso, President Blaise Compaoré , who had ruled the country since 1987, announced his plans to revise the constitution to run for another term, and Balai Citoyen , or the "Citizen's Broom" was born. Like in Senegal, the youth embraced the country's musicians and local artists.
The musical lyrics told Burkina Faso's citizens to "sweep away" corruption, political patronage, and poverty. Citizen Broom's music was diffused on social media and radio. Clubs were created to organize the "Citizen Sweepers" across the country and abroad.
In 2015, Blaise Compaoré was forced to resign from office and fled to Côte d ' Ivoire . The nation held democratic elections later that year.
The DRC:
In 2012, students from the city of Goma, in the Eastern Congo of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, founded LUCHA, shorthand for "struggle for change." The group brought together 3,000 activists to demand improved human rights and respect for the rule of law. Another group, Filimbi, or "Whistle" in Swahili, mobilized for better governance.
In "2016 Citizen's Front " was formed, which included Filimbi, LUCHA, and other groups, insisting that the sitting president, Joseph Kabila, in power for 18 years, respect the constitution, and hold much delayed presidential elections.
Their struggle was particularly difficult. Congolese security forces violently suppressed protesters, leading to arrests, injuries, and deaths.
In December 2018, elections, although flawed, were held, and Kabila stepped down , in no small part, because of the pressure of these young activists supported by a unified international community.
While from different countries with varied political contexts, these examples follow a pattern. Political elites take advantage of weakened institutions and opaque electoral processes for their personal benefit. In response, the youth mobilize to demand change.
And change comes, at times dramatically, at times incrementally, but it is inevitable, because history is on their side.
What the data shows:
The anecdotes I have shared, while not demonstrating a causal relationship between the activist generation's actions and a regime change, do reveal some correlation. And as always, Afrobarometer has come to the rescue to add a statistical lens to my remarks.
From 2016 to 2018, Afro barometer conducted 45,000 face-to-face interviews in 34 countries, asking about democracy, political freedoms and elections.
The data concludes that Africans believe in democracy, and that it is preferable to all other forms of government, but that demand far outstrips supply. Further, it shows that the strongest support comes from urban-dwellers, with access to education, who consume news media and regularly access the internet.
The report highlights the importance of citizens who are not only deeply committed to democracy, but who adopt a critical perspective toward their country's current leaders and institutions — in other words, those citizens who demand democracy but do not think they are getting it. Afrobarometer describes this sub-category as "dissatisfied democrats."
Afrobarometer argues that that citizens' commitment to democracy matters for its survival and quality and suggests that it is these dissatisfied democrats who matter most people like Y'en a Marre in Senegal, Balai Citoyen , in Burkina Faso, and LUCHA, Filimbi in the DRC.
The data also shows that where democracy thrives, there are fewer dissatisfied democrats, Ghana, for example has the fewest at 3 percent, while the countries of Gabon, Togo and Zimbabwe have the most.
What I hope you will take away from what I have just shared, is that the activist generation plays a catalytic role in encouraging democratic transitions, particularly in Africa countries where leaders have tried to prolong their power through undemocratic means.
But like democracy itself, their track record is uneven, and despite their growing numbers, entrenched leaders, and corrupt political systems are resilient, they don't fold willingly.
Finally, if you believe, (like I do and as Afrobarometer validates) that dissatisfied democrats are the key, and that civil society is the platform from where they mobilize, we need to focus interventions in their direction, domestically, regionally and internationally.
Policy Recommendations:
In this vein, here are my policy recommendations for consideration.
- One. Foreign donors need to get behind the activist generation and civil society, and not in front of them. That means investing in these organizations, empowering them with management skills, mobilization tools and new technologies, and then, when the going gets tough, make their own goals subservient to theirs. In the DRC, the observer community, including the Africans, Americans and Europeans, walked away from LUCHA, Filimbi and its allies, opting for a negotiated presidential selection process, rather than permit a true democratic choice. As the Prof said to me at the time, "Riva, history has shown that when injustice is swept under the rug, it can return with great ferocity."
- Two. Data is power. It does not pick sides. And it does not lie. As such, we must help civil society own the data, at all parts of the democratic process, polling of opinions on leadership, on trust in institutions, attitudes towards the future. Early collection of data can serve as a check against fake news the day of the vote. And no competitive election should take place in Africa again, without a Parallel Vote Tabulation (PVT) giving a non-captive validation of election results. Though as we saw in Nigeria's presidential elections in February, rigging tactics can adapt, and wide-spread voter suppression, including the deployment of security forces, can render a PVT moot.
- Three. The activist generation must look for ways to close the urban/rural divide to increase their diversity and their numbers. At a national level, this means advocating for youth-empowerment policies that improve access to quality education and connective technologies for their rural counterparts. On a mobilization basis, this means aggressive efforts to recruit across peri-urban and rural areas,
- Finally, we need to remind ourselves of the big picture, of an African population which is expected to double by 2050, and of the failure of African governments over the past decade to deliver wide-spread economic opportunity. We must accept the fact that effecting more representative and accountable governance, must happen with the same urgency that many of us feel with combatting climate change, in that if we do not act now, we could lose the window to define the future we want.
Closing Remarks:
I finished writing this lecture this past Sunday, 17 March, in the late afternoon, in Monrovia, Liberia, at an outdoor bar at the Old Royal Hotel drinking ginger and lime juice.
As I was rereading my draft, I was convinced that I had delivered on my thesis, the role of the activist generation as democracy's protectors. That I had left nothing out. And then I ran into Bill Rogers.
As I have written a book about Liberia, my memoir, Choosing the Hero, Liberians know me, and at times introduce themselves, and tell me their own stories.
This was the case of 32-year-old Bill.
When Bill was seven, 1992, he was kidnapped in Bong County at the height of the country's civil war. The rebel soldiers, realizing they could get no bounty from the young boy's family, chopped off the toes on his right foot, and left him to bleed out, and die.
A few hours later, Bill was found by a group of village women. He was barely alive. They placed him in a wheelbarrow, (the tire punctured and flat), and dragged him through the bush to a clinic that had no supplies or medicines.
The women wrapped up his foot from the clothes on their bodies, and sat with him for days, then weeks. All they could do was pray.
Bill eventually recovered, was reunited with his family, and at nine years of age, moved to Monrovia with his family and decided, he was going to become a runner, as he could not kick a soccer ball with his maimed right foot.
This stick-figure of a child became a fixture on the city streets, running from Sinkor, to Congo Town, to Red Light district, then around to the port, through Mamba Point and back.
His passion won him a scholarship to Kenya to train, a place on the 2004 Liberia Olympic team, and full scholarships to universities in the United States.
Today, Bill splits his time between Houston, Texas and Liberia, where his Bill Rogers Youth Foundation supports youth sport and education.
Bill doesn't talk about politics, though he agrees that political inclusion is important, too many children need his help, now.
With my speech already submitted, I realized that I had not included people like Bill in my remarks, the non-governmental, non-political party actors, who help one person at a time, with one need at a time. I left out the transformative power of communities.
So, I tacked on his story to the end of this lecture and promised Bill I would do so the next time. Bill was supposed to be here today, but the ASKY flight was overbooked, but he will join me tomorrow.
Ladies and gentlemen, faculty and students, thank you for welcoming me into your university family!
