The configuration of the National Assembly, resulting from the elections, is unprecedented in Senegal. The country is going to be governed with a relative majority of 82 representatives for Benno Bokk Yaakaar (Bby), 56 representatives for the Yewwi askan Wi (Yaw) coalition, 24 representatives for the Wallu-Senegal coalition and a representative for each of three other small electoral lists. This situation will induce game of alliances and counter-alliances depending on specific matters, but nothing says that discussions and negotiations will not allow President Macky Sall to succeed in consolidating his majority through rallying of other representatives. We are already seeing the same phenomenon that led in January 2022, new opposition mayors to start rallying the majority camp. The fact remains that this new legislature will undoubtedly mark the end of previous parliamentary hegemonies which consisted in handing the powers to a mechanical majority making it possible to pass, without major fuss, any text of law even major constitutional reforms. Parliamentary oversight and control of government action willsurely be improved in this specific configuration. Senegal will also make a big leap forward in the continuous process of strengthening our institutions and balancing powers in our system.
How did the opposition achieve this feat?
Senegalese electors voted with stunning mathematical logic between the two elections of January 2022 (municipal and departmental elections) and July 2022 (legislative elections). The opposition obtained practically the same scores in the same districts while retaining its posture of questioning the regime with the same rhetoric and the same methods. The dynamics that had emerged in the local elections remained constant, especially since President Macky Sall had refrained from seeking to change the situation taking into account the warning shots of the local elections (see our column of the August 01, 2022). In the legislative elections, we noted an amplification of certain opposition victories, not because the voters mobilized more against the outgoing majority, but the opposition was able to find political agreements to unite forces between the two major coalitions Yaw and Wallu-Senegal. The electoral system, with a preponderant majority vote in a single round, also helped for such end. The government, due to a certain political naivety or a reluctance to engage in another confrontation with the opposition, allowed this allianceto happen, even though it's flawed considering the electoral law. Inter-coalition between these two opposition entities is not authorized by law and moreover, the formula was put in place after the legal deadlines for filing the lists of candidates. The lack of vigilance or of foresight also allowed the opposition to win 10 free representatives on the quota of representatives elected by the diaspora. One would have to live on a planet other than Earth to not know that the vote of the Senegalese in the diaspora would inexorably benefit the opposition. Did President Macky Sall allow himself to be deceived by the masses of crowds of compatriots gathered at his hotel during his trips abroad? In any case, he had all the latitude, thanks to the new distribution of the seats of representatives to take into account certain disparities between the electoral constituencies, to reduce the quota of representatives from the diaspora to assign them to other departments where perhaps he would have more luck to grab them. The diaspora vote with less than 55 thousand casted votes made it possible to elect 15 representatives while the national rate to elect a representative on the proportional list is around 56 thousand votes. In these columns, we warned of such anachronism in a column dated February 22, 2022 entitled: "Reducing the number of representatives from the diaspora". Officials of the Alliance pour la République(Apr) who already thought of themselves as representatives from the diaspora did not fail to vehemently attack our analysis.
Bbyonce again lost through its divisions if you look closely in the legislative elections as in last January.We can already ask ourselves if in reality Mrs. Aminata Touré who led the list benefited from massive and sincere support from her coalition comrades? The demons of rivalries and intern wars disastrously acted in the majority. The same battles of ego and leadership that had led to parallel lists in the municipal elections turned into sanction votes in localities such asDakar, Louga, Rufisque, Saint-Louis, Mbour, Ziguinchor, Kolda, Tivaouane, Kébémer and Thiès. Bby also lost in some constituencies due to the arrogance of its local leaders.This is for example the case in Sédhiou where Minister Abdoulaye Diop had the audacity to say that he will have the vote of his city in his pocket,as long as he has money.That declarationshocked the populations of Balantacounda, in particular Simbandi Balante by arrogantly snubbing too the local religious leaders. We warned in vain, on February 3, 2020, in a text titled "Honking straight into the wall" that: "humility is lacking in the men and women of government. The intoxication of power was making its bed with a certain arrogance spreading under our eyes and that the minimum expected of the elites in power is a mark of attention".
Another notorious factor that favored the good votes of the opposition in certain so-called religious towns would be largely due to internal quarrels within the ruling religious families. It appears that in a context where all prominent members of a religious family want to become "Caliph in place of the Caliph", any empathy shown by the Caliph towards the Head of State provokes a contrary effect or even defiance from others. In the end, the support displayed or assumed by a religious guide turns out to be counterproductive!
The failed objectives of the opposition
The opposition had announced two objectives: imposing cohabitation to President Macky Sall andmaking the legislative elections a kind of referendum on a possible bid of President Macky Sall in the 2024 presidential run.They obviously lost the gamble. President Macky Sall has the free reins to form a government. But, opposition leaders, still want to believe that the July 31, 2022 vote would undoubtedly translate into blockinga possible new presidential candidacy of Macky Sall. In a democracy everyone is free of their opinions but frankly it is lying to oneself to try to interpret the electors' vote in such a way. Moreover, on the scores achieved by the opposition,54% of voters did not feel concerned by the ballot, having abstained. We can foresee that if the abstained voters subscribed to the idea of barring a possible candidacy, they would not need to be asked to mobilize and go to the polls. Macky Sall was elected in 2019 in the first round of voting with 58.26% of the vote with a turnout participation of 66.27%.Idrissa Seck, who was second in that election and joined President Sall's camp, obtained 20.52% of the vote. This means that the question of Macky Sall's candidacy in 2024 remains open, especially since its legality no longer seems to be the subject of serious debate.
Hypothesis number 1: Macky Sall runs in 2024
We can only guess. President Macky Sall has not yet indicated that he is considering declaring himself a candidate for the 2024 election. Also, we cannot prejudge the decision that the Constitutional Council, the only body authorized to declare the admissibility of candidacies, would give if the matter arises.The fact remains that a candidacy of Macky Sall could have a good chance of success. We can consider that the current opposition has finished filling up its votes, which remain constant between January 2022 and July 2022 in the range of 1.5 million voters. What political upheavals or serious failures of Macky Sall could boost such an electorate? Since 2007, to win a presidential election it would take at least more than 2 million voters. President Macky Sall had piled up some 2,555,426 votes in 2019.
We cannot read in a crystal ball. Once again, we can note that the vast majority of voters who had abstained, in the same proportions in January 2022 and July 2022, could not be voices fiercely hostile to Macky Sall. Without a doubt that among these abstained voters, there are many who would not like to give him a blank cheque because of a negative perception of government action. There are other voters too who would not find themselves reassured by the leaders from the opposition who present themselves as alternatives.What political offer and what new approach will President Sall be able to implement to seduce or influence a good part of this important stock of electoral votes to continue to trust him as in 2019?It would be up to him to determine his leeway, taking into account dissatisfaction with his government casting and his governance's perception. President Sall has a record of achievements that speaks for him.His opposition, presents no programmatic or governance offer other than to advocate blind "clearance" and to shout, without ever bringing any proof of the eternal conspiracy theories they present to the public. It will always remain a challenge for President Sall to boost his image on the principles of good governance, equality of citizens before the law and authority vis-à-vis his collaborators who are not always the best models of probity, competence and humility. There is also a great desire for authority to enforce law and order among citizens. Anybody can threaten, terrorize their fellow citizens, defy the law and insult, heckle public institutions, religious and moral authorities. You can defy your world with impunity and ransack public property with impunity. We are surprised being nostalgic of Léopold Sédar Senghor who was said "to have an iron hand in a velvet glove". May he inspire us in these days ! It is time for Macky Sall to lay down his cards if he would like to be a candidate. This would enable him to know with whom he could try the challenge and who he would have facing him.
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Hypothesis 2: Macky Sall would not turn up in 2024
On the other hand, if President Sall started declaring loud and clear that he will not be a candidate in 2024, he would scuttle the rest of his mandate by turning into a real "lame duck".He would no longer be able to exercise any authority over his collaborators and supporters who would then begin to prepare their future without him. In addition, his non-candidacy will inevitably cause an abundance of bids from the same camp of Bby, with nominations by each of the components of the coalition. Even within Apr, most political leaders think of being a candidate each time they perform their ablutions for each of the five Muslim ritual prayers. A multitude of candidates within the same political side will have the consequence of dividing their electorate at the risk of not finding a flagbearer in a possible second round of a presidential election.
