Voter defiance and the emergence of a strong challenger are increasing the pressure on Angolan President Joao Lourenco, writes Marcio Pessoa.
The outcome of Angola's general election has sent a clear message to the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA). If the party that has been in power for nearly five decades fails to democratize governance and deliver real social and economic reforms, the dissatisfaction among voters with President Joao Lourenco will increase further.
The ruling party's leaders are not keen on any changes, but there is an urgent need for internal reforms within the MPLA. The voices of the people on the streets are a clear indication of that.
The number of government deputies in the National Assembly has fallen from 150 to 124. Lourenco will rule comfortably in Parliament, but without the guarantee of forming a majority for possible constitutional changes. On the other hand, the opposition National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA) went from 51 to 90 seats in the National Assembly.
The ruling party's losses are historic. UNITA won over 60% of the vote in the country's largest constituency. The MPLA lost support in its strongholds where UNITA grew significantly such as in the provinces of Cuanza Norte and Malanje. The ruling party also suffered symbolic defeats in Cabinda and Zaire provinces.
Dissatisfaction on the streets
So why is there so much voter dissatisfaction? The Angolan political and economic elite has exploited the state-run authorities for their own benefit. Families of politicians and Army generals and businessmen grew rich after the promise of independence based on a Socialist model. Instead, the country has embraced a form of capitalism that has increased inequality.
Over the years, the MPLA has spawned a regime very similar to what has been described as a "competitive authoritarianism." That is, parties in power for decades set up a skewed political playing field in favor of the incumbents. From state institutions to media and businesses, everything is controlled in a context where nothing is public, not even the state.
The election commission, CNE, is seen as a cog in that machinery. Even more so when the governing party gets involved in appointing those who run the commission.
In a scenario like that, despite a largely peaceful election day, all elections will now be contested, because the institutions have lost their credibility. This was the case in 1992, 2008, 2012, and 2017, and it is expected to be so in 2022.
If the MPLA does not deliver something new and effective by the next elections, it may not remain in power.
Will the country change?
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While opposition leader Adalberto Costa Junior failed to win, the election has shown that UNITA has a charismatic and assertive leader capable of attracting votes and challenging Lourenco. Costa Junior addressed the issues that matter and he has the support of young workers and heavy-weight intellectuals. While he's short on creative solutions, he's willing to acknowledge and address the country's pressing problems such as high unemployment rates; galloping inflation; acute poverty, and the humanitarian crisis.
Finally, it's impossible to talk about the election without mentioning of the issue of the "participation" of 2 million deceased citizens. UNITA counted that, among the 14 million Angolans on the electoral roll, there were more than 2 million names of dead people that were not erased from the lists.
The "dead voters," the restrictions on the access to domestic electoral observers and voters being forced to cast their ballots at locations far from their homes have made the people more defiant -- now and in the future.
