On June 26, a new terrorist attack struck northern Benin. With more than twenty attacks since the end of 2021, the desire for jihadist penetration in the country is becoming clearer. The tense ethnic and social context of the northern regions offers them a potentially fertile breeding ground. In response, the Beninese state is deploying a strategy designed to contain the threat militarily. But without neglecting the ethno-political stakes that characterize its north.
Benin was long protected from the Sahel war. As of 2021, attempts to establish cells have been observed. Temporary, they were already trying to recruit among the local population. Today, the increase in the number of attacks and the methods used leave little doubt as to the objectives of the GAT: control of new trafficking routes, political will to expand their sphere of influence, destabilization of a country whose government is involved in the regional fight against jihadism, etc.
So what are the real risks of the situation worsening? And what is the response of the Beninese government?
Increasing attacks in the north
Incidents increased in the course of 2021. A turning point occurred when soldiers of the Beninese Armed Forces (BAF) were fatally targeted in Atacora. Attacks peak in 2022, with about 20 fatal incidents. This type of targeting is aimed at recovering equipment and attacking symbols and representations of the state. A classic modus operandi to assert itself in an area.
Fertile ground?
There is a concentration of attacks in the border areas of Atacora and Alibori. These regions form a geographic and ethnic continuum with neighboring countries. The same factors that create fear are found there: trafficking, community tensions, etc. In northern Benin, the situation is aggravated by the passage and crossing of several transhumance routes. Inter-community relations have deteriorated in these regions due to the scarcity of resources.
In addition, all of Benin's northern regions are characterized by the emergence of a particularly radical Islam. Since 2010, community tensions have caused dozens of deaths, thousands of displaced persons and various abuses. This is a favorable context for the GATs, who have proven their ability to exploit this type of community confrontation to take root locally.
Rise of the BAF
This violent assertion by the GATs led to a military response from Benin. In December 2021, a substantial increase in the budget of the armed forces was announced: 12% in 2022 and 760 million additional euros invested by 2026. Among the main challenges to be met are the reduction of gaps in levels between units, the adaptation of training to commitments in the north and the integration of feedback from future operations.
The BAFs have a fairly reliable military administration as a result of their participation in UN operations and their training in French military schools.
Force operationalization
The current ramp-up of the BAF is an acceleration of the capability increment that began in 2017. Benin's forces are still organized according to a battalion format oriented towards conventional combat. Although the adoption of a format more adapted to asymmetric challenges (counter-guerrilla warfare) has yet to be achieved, it is clear that since 2016, capacity building, the evolution of the military territorial network and the creation of an intervention corps, the National Guard, are moving in this direction.
Modernization of capabilities
Starting in 2018, the Beninese army is beginning to modernize its capabilities. For example, it is receiving individual equipment as well as Bastion armor. These new acquisitions reflect the conceptual and doctrinal pragmatism of the BAF.
International defense cooperation
On the intelligence side, significant efforts have been made since 2016. The Beninese army must now gain depth in certain capabilities that are still insufficient: light artillery support, air mobility, air combat and air ground support. The budgetary effort made by the government gives reason to be optimistic on this front.
Benin also relies on bilateral partnerships such as the defense partnership signed on July 11, 2022 with Niger. The two countries plan to cooperate in the field of intelligence. For Benin, this is an opportunity to benefit from the Nigerien army's experience in counter-terrorism. Niger has competent forces capable of fighting against GAT. This partnership contributes to strengthening an increasingly integrated approach between the Sahel and the Gulf of Guinea in the fight against jihadism.
Creating an arbitration state
The state's strategy is built on a holistic approach. For several years, the Beninese state has been working to sedentarize the Fulani population. The methodology is criticized because the region has the highest rate of inter-community violence, which is mainly directed at the Fulani (64%).
In the meantime, arbitration measures are planned, such as the renegotiation of access to natural areas and the revaluation of penalties for crop damage. In return, the government wishes to promote the economic advantages of transhumance and livestock farming among the farming population, while integrating the Fulani more fully into public debates.
The state has a certain credibility in undertaking these projects from the point of view of the people. The Peul populations, like other herders, have a good image of the security forces. This is a real asset for the state in the face of jihadists, probably due to the expertise of the BAF and the judicial police in peacekeeping.
Nevertheless, the presence of the state is still fragmented: poor coverage of public administrations, lack of qualified personnel, and unsystematic civil status declarations. The authorities are aware of this problem and are planning actions to reaffirm public services.
A multi-modal, coordinated response
Benin appears to be in a position to mount a multi-modal and coordinated response to GAT. The government's strategy is to deploy actions across the spectrum of the security-development continuum. Far from being isolated, the country is articulating its military effort with its partners in the Accra Initiative as part of a regional approach to risk. Benin also relies on the solid assistance provided by France, Belgium and the United States. At this stage, therefore, the country appears well positioned to contain the threat.
