Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation [1] with Guinea. Growth is expected to reach 4.7 percent in 2022 and 5.6 percent in 2023, driven by continued strength in the mining sector, though the non-mining sector is grappling with the impact of international price shocks.
The Executive Board also approved today a disbursement of SDR 53.55 million (US$71 million) under the Food Shock Window of the Rapid Credit Facility to help Guinea address urgent balance of payment needs related to the global food crisis. Food insecurity in Guinea has increased significantly owing to the international food and fertilizer prices shock. The UN 2022 Global Report on Food Crises considers Guinea to have a major food crisis, with a large share of the population affected by acute food insecurity and worsening malnutrition. The population is also affected by a precarious post-pandemic recovery of the non-mining sector.
Following the Executive Board's discussion, Ms. Gita Gopinath, First Deputy Managing Director and acting Chair, issued the following statement:
"Guinea's chronic food insecurity was significantly exacerbated in 2022 as a result of the international food and fertilizer price shock, threatening the fragile post-pandemic recovery of the non-mining sector. Together with the increase in fuel prices, external performance in 2022 is expected to have deteriorated, resulting in weaker-than-desirable foreign reserve coverage. Inflation remains high, partly driven by food prices. Emergency financial assistance under the RCF's new Food Shock Window would help address urgent balance-of-payments needs and mitigate the impact of the food shock. The authorities' plan to use the resources to support the most vulnerable, in coordination with the World Food Program, and to provide fertilizers to improve the next harvest, is welcome. Ensuring the transparent and effective use of the resources will be essential."
"Mobilizing domestic revenue, including from the mining sector, and improving the quality of expenditure, via a reduction in regressive subsidies and better public investment management, will help create additional space to invest in infrastructure, education, and social protection, enhancing Guinea's growth potential while preserving debt sustainability."
"Guinea remains at moderate risk of debt distress, with some space to absorb shocks but limited space for new borrowing. Maximizing the concessionality of new debt, tapping domestic financing sources, strengthening debt management capacity, and enhancing public investment management will be crucial in preserving medium-term debt sustainability. "
"Maintaining a tight monetary policy and ensuring that central bank lending to the government remains within the statutory limit are critical to contain inflation. The development of a new consumer price index covering the entire country is welcome; it will be important for the central bank to introduce it gradually, according to best practice."
"Economic diversification will be essential to sustain growth over time and make it more resilient and inclusive. A sound implementation of the Simandou iron ore project should be a key priority, while addressing weaknesses in governance will also be important. In this regard, moving ahead in the implementation of the 2021 safeguards assessment recommendations and improving governance and the anti-corruption system as well as the AML/CFT regime are welcome steps."
Guinea: Selected Economic Indicators, 2020-23
(Percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
2020
2021
2022
2023
Est.
Projection
Output and Inflation
Real GDP Growth (annual percentage change)
4.9
4.3
4.7
5.6
Mining (annual percentage change)
28.3
6.6
11.8
11.1
Industrial mining (annual percentage change)
1.6
-0.6
10.9
11.9
Non-mining (annual percentage change)
0.3
3.7
2.9
4.1
Inflation Average (annual percentage change)
10.6
12.6
12.2
11.4
Central government finances
Total revenue and grants
13.9
13.6
13.1
13.0
Expenditures and net lending
17.0
15.3
14.4
15.3
Current Expenditures
13.5
13.0
10.6
10.7
Capital Expenditures
3.5
2.3
3.7
4.5
Overall balance including grants
-3.1
-1.7
-1.3
-2.3
Basic fiscal balance
-1.5
-0.7
0.1
-0.1
External sector
Current account balance (including official transfers)
-16.1
-2.1
-7.4
-6.8
Current account balance (excluding official transfers)
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-16.9
-2.1
-7.4
-6.8
Overall balance of payments
-0.9
2.4
-0.3
0.4
Gross available reserves (months of imports)
2.5
2.7
2.5
2.4
Gross public debt
47.1
40.4
34.9
35.3
Nominal GDP (GNF billions)
135,612
157,725
185,329
215,692
Sources: Guinean authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.
[1] Under Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country's economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.
