President Buhari attended a rally of the APC in Nasarawa State on Saturday amidst a crisis in the party over allegations of a conspiracy by elements around the president against the party's presidential candidate, Bola Tinubu.
Bola Tinubu and the All Progressives Congress (APC) had some tumultuous days last week that led to a prediction of the implosion of the ruling party before or after the general elections.
The campaign spent the entire week fighting "enemies" in the Presidential Villa, whom it said were working to sabotage the chances of the ruling party at the polls by "pushing the poor implementation of the Naira redesigning" and also hoarding petrol.
The implementation of the mopping of the old naira notes created a scarcity of money in circulation, which was naturally blamed on the APC-led federal government.
There were pockets of protests in Oyo and Edo states. Amidst the Naira scarcity, Mr Tinubu at a campaign stop in Abeokuta, the Ogun State capital, floated the idea of a conspiracy targeted at him.
"Let fuel be expensive; only they know where they kept it. Keep petrol, keep the naira, we will vote and be elected. You may change the ink of naira notes. What you expect will not happen. We will win," he said in the Yoruba language.
The choice of Abeokuta is striking, as it was the same place he made the famous "Emi Lokan" comment.
In Ekiti State, Mr Tinubu also claimed that some persons were trying to use the scarcity of the naira to create a crisis that would scuttle the elections and pave the way for an interim government.
"They are hoarding naira so that you can be angry and fight. They want confusion so that the election can be postponed. What they want is an interim government. But we are wiser than them. We will not fight. Any rat that eats the rat poison will end up killing itself," he said again in Yoruba at the Ekitiparapo Pavilion in Ado-Ekiti.
While Mr Tinubu was using the rally to air his views, other political associates used television stations to amplify his conspiracy theory. Within 72 hours of Mr Tinubu speaking in the Ekiti State capital, Kaduna State Governor Nasir Elrufai was on four different television stations where he alleged that elements within the presidency were working against the government.
Governor Umar Ganduje Kano alleged that the policy of Central Bank Governor, Godwin Emefiele is more of vengeance against the ruling party for stopping his presidential ambition. Ajuri Ngelale, a senior special assistant to President Buhari, also accused Mr Emefiele of giving the president false information to justify the policy.
To further highlight the alleged political dimension of the CBN policy, Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi of the Peoples Democratic Party and Labour Party respectively, both expressed support for the policy although they highlighted how it can be more efficient.Meanwhile, for a president whose major source of speaking has been 'body language', many interpreted the crisis within the party as confirmation of Mr Buhari's "tactical opposition" to the candidacy of the former governor of Lagos State.
Mr Buhari may not boast an organised political structure like many other politicians. However, he remains a cult hero in the core north, particularly in the North-west and North-east. His performance on security and the economy may have reduced the adulation that many of his voters had for him.
Even though his endorsement or aloofness carries significant weight, Mr Buhari is notorious for his reluctance to wield his enormous political influence. For example, Halilu Ahmed, the younger brother of his wife, Aisha Buhari, could not get the party's nomination. The expression of outrage by Aisha Buhari did not sway her husband to intervene.
Also, Fatahu Muhammadu, the president's cousin, lost the primaries to recontest the Daura Federal Constituency seat.
Also, his loyal deputy, Yemi Osinbajo, did not get any support from the president as he suffered an embarrassing defeat in the APC presidential primaries.
Tinubu will win - Buhari
It was thus a surprise on Saturday when in the middle of all the conspiracy theories and reading of his body language, Mr Buhari attended the Tinubu rally in Lafia, Nasarawa State, and reaffirmed his commitment to the success of the APC presidential campaign.
"I congratulate and assure you that God willing, we will win through and through," he said.
He equally spoke in the Hausa language, where he reiterated his commitment to Mr Tinubu and the party.
The endorsement drew instant reactions from the opposition. A former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara, who only recently ended his second stint in the APC, via his Twitter handle flayed the president for the encomium on Mr Tinubu.
"I know that PMB loves to crack jokes but I didn't know he will escalate it to the level of satire. Asiwaju will give his best to Nigeria, really? Fake certificates, fake parentage, golden triangle escapades, racketeering. No PMB, Nigeria does not deserve his best but we get the satire," he tweeted.Also, Abdul Mahmoud, a prominent Peter Obi supporter on Twitter, tweeted that the pronouncement by the president has changed the dynamics of the election.
"Two things have now changed the complexion of the 25 February 2023 presidential election. Firstly, the public declaration by Buhari that Tinubu is his successor. Secondly, the gung-ho attacks launched by BAT'S media hirelings targeting Obi since departing Lafia... .
"Buhari has never been known for successor-coronation. His tweet, which shows his sinister agenda, signposts grave portents. Citizens must resist Buhari's attempt to use his presidential powers to fix the poll," he tweeted.
How well can the Lafia Declaration affect APC?
As it stands, the president is yet to give a new direction on the naira notes. Even the APC governors who visited him could not extract a promise from him of immediate action. Instead, the president asked them to give him seven days. Therefore, the policy stays.
The endorsement of the new notes policy by Atiku and Mr Obi has also given the ruling party the opportunity to project their support for the policy as a validation of its theory of fifth columnists in government.
"So, you have the tale of two presidential candidates: one who stands with the people and says this currency swap must stop; the second one says,' no, it cannot stop, it's a good policy. CBN, don't listen to him. Let the people continue to suffer.' I leave the rest to you to determine who is with you and who is against you," the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Femi Gbajabiamila, said at a campaign gathering in Lagos.
Atiku's push into Northwest
While the ruling party was bickering, Mr Atiku held rallies in Kebbi, Sokoto and Zamfara with large turnouts. Also, he got three aggrieved APC members of the House of Representatives from Katsina - Hamza Dalhatu (Rimi/Charanci/Batagarawa constituency), Salisu Iro (Katsina constituency) and Ahmad Dayyabu (Danmusa/Batsari/Safana constituency) to defect to the PDP.
Sign up for free AllAfrica Newsletters
Get the latest in African news delivered straight to your inbox
Last year, Ibrahim Babangida (Malumfashi/Kafur constituency), Armaya'u Kado (Dutsin Ma/Kurfi constituency) and Aminu Ashiru (Mani/Bindawa constituency) decamped to the New Nigeria People's Party.
A source within the APC campaign council told PREMIUM TIMES that Katsina State remains a big challenge for the ruling party.
According to the official, who did not want to be named, the problem in Katsina State started with the nomination of Dikko Radda as the APC governorship candidate in the state. Mr Radda is said not to be the preferred candidate of Governor Bello Masari.
"I must admit, we have problems in Katsina, which unfortunately happens to be the president's home state. I learnt the governorship candidate is not the one Governor Masari wanted as the governorship candidate. I think the problem started from there," he said.
However, he dismissed the defected lawmakers as "aggrieved lawmakers who failed to get the ticket of the APC."
Party members believe Mr Buhari has a job of providing leadership and sending a strong signal to his base that he wholeheartedly wants Mr Tinubu as his successor. But he will have to do that amidst the challenges within and outside his party.
Doing that could be another case of last-minute intervention. Mr Buhari has earned a reputation for late interventions. During the Mai Mala Buni and the APC caretaker committee debacle, the last-minute intervention of the president saved the party from an existential threat.
He equally used the same last-minute intervention in endorsing Abdullahi Adamu for the national chairmanship position.
It is unclear if the Lafia declaration will address these challenges. However, the president will be hosting the presidential rally in Katsina State. Perhaps, another strong statement there may convince his North-west voters to reject the other candidates and back his "crown prince" as his successor.
