Nigeria: 2023 Election - How Some Exciting Senatorial Contests in the North-West Will Play Out

15 February 2023

From incumbent senators seeking a return to the National Assembly, to governors who want to become senators, the senatorial contests in some states promise to be as exciting as the presidential election.

As Nigerians look forward to an exciting presidential contest, which analysts said is the closest and perhaps the most unpredictable since the country's return to democratic rule 24 years ago, on 25 February, not much is being said about the election to choose members into the bi-cameral parliament of Africa's biggest democracy.

Though the election to elect the 469 members of both houses of the National Assembly - the Senate and House of Representatives, as the country's parliament is known, will be held simultaneously with the presidential election, understandably it is the election to choose the country's leader that is attracting all the attention.

But in some instances, the often overlooked election to elect members of the National Assembly can be as exciting and packed with intrigues as the presidential poll. What is more, in many instances, the success of a party's candidate in the National Assembly election is often of pointer to the party's performance in the presidential election.

PREMIUM TIMES takes a look at some of the senatorial contests in the North-west region that promises as much excitement as the presidential election. These contests are between old political foes, former allies, governors versus entrenched godfathers, and godfathers against their former proteges.

Aleiro Vs Bagudu

This promises to be the most exciting senatorial contest in the region. Former governor Adamu Aliero was first elected into the Senate in 2007 to represent Kebbi Central district after he completed his two-term tenure as governor of the state. But he resigned his appointment for a ministerial position in the Umoru Yar'Adua cabinet. He, however, was re-elected to the Senate in 2015.

When Mr Aliero was leaving the Senate in 2008, he supported his friend, Abubakar Bagudu to replace him. Mr Bagudu later became governor in 2015. In 2015 he was steadfastly behind Mr Aliero's bid to return to the Senate.

When it became obvious that Mr Bagudu was eyeing the senate position at the end of his tenure as governor, Mr Aliero, the incumbent senator of the district, decamped to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). As expected, Mr Bagudu contested in the primary and won while Mr Aliero emerged as the candidate of the PDP, pitching both men - a former governor and the incumbent governor- against each other.

Tambuwal Vs Danbaba

In Sokoto State, the fight for Sokoto South Senatorial district promises to be an intense battle between the incumbent governor, Aminu Tambuwal, who seeks to wrest the position from Ibrahim Danbaba.

Mr Danbaba was an ally of Mr Tambuwal in 2015 when both men were the All Progressives Congress (APC). So much was Mr Tambuwal's influence on Mr Danbaba that when the governor defected to the PDP just before the 2019 election, Mr Danbaba moved with him to the chagrin of their political godfather, Aliyu Wamakko.

But their friendship soon turned sour. When Mr Tambuwal contested for the presidential ticket of the PDP, he appointed Aminu Bodinga, said to be his most trusted ally as a placeholder for the senatorial position, that was when Mr Danbaba realised his former friend was gunning for his senatorial seat.

He immediately returned to the APC to the waiting hands of Mr Wamakko and was elected the APC senatorial candidate for the district, creating the ground for another exciting contest on 25 February.

Wamakko Vs Dan Iya

Aliyu Wamakko is perhaps the most influential politician in Sokoto State. the other politician that is closely as influential as him is another former governor Attahiru Bafarawa. Mr Wamakko has been in the Senate since 2015. His main challenger, Nasiru Dan Iya, is the incumbent deputy governor of the state. While Mr Wamakko represents APC, Mr Dan Iya represents PDP. The contest for the Sokoto Central seat will an interesting one to behold as Mr Iya, just as his principal, Mr Tambuwal, was a protege of Mr Wamakko.

While Mr Wamakko will be fighting to retain his political cred, he will be up against an incumbent who is also banking on his ascendancy - he is a descendant of the greatest Islamic scholar of Northern Nigeria, Usman Dan Fodio - to displace his former idol.

Babba-Kaita Vs Zango

In Katsina, the contest in President Muhammadu Buhari's senatorial district promises all the fireworks of the keenly contested political tussle. The contest is made even made more balance by Mr Buhari's aloofness towards the election. If Buhari, who enjoyed a cult following across northern Nigeria, was openly campaigning for his party candidates in his home constituency, the contest would have been over before it even began.

But following the acrimonious primary election in the region where many allies of the president were edged out and his refusal to intervene, several of the party's foot soldiers and influencers defected to the main opposition party, the PDP there throwing the contests for positions in the state open.

In the senatorial election in the Katsina North district (commonly referred to as Daura zone, after the president's home town), Ahmed Babba - Kaita the incumbent senator will be fighting to retain his seat against Nasir Zango of the APC.

Mr Zango is the current House of Representatives member representing Zango and Baure. He has been in the House of Representatives since 2011.

Mr Babba-Kaita left the APC, alleging persecution by Aminu Masari, the governor of the state. Since then, he has become of the most vocal critics of President Buhari and Mr Masari.

This contest promises to be exciting as APC will try to reclaim the zone since it's the president's zone. The state government will also play a role as the governor will be bent on humiliating Mr Babba-Kaita, following his open antagonism towards him.

Gaya Vs Sumaila

Kano South Senatorial district is the traditional battleground in the commercial hub of northern Nigeria. The district traditionally sides with the opposition. But since 2007, one man, Kabiru Gaya, a former governor of the state, has been elected into the Senate. but that may change this year with the emergence of Kawu Sumaila, another veteran National Assembly member . He was a member of the House of Representatives member from 2003 to 2015- as the candidate of the New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP).

The contest between both veterans is one to look forward to. Mr Sumaila is a famed grassroots mobiliser and will definitely bring his goodwill among rural dwellers to play in the contest. What is more, within a year, the NNPP has risen from complete obscurity to upstaging the PDP as the main opposition party in the state. All thanks to its presidential candidate and a former governor of the state, Rabiu Kwankwaso.

But Mr Gaya is not a pushover. It takes a lot of gravitas to remain the sole senatorial representative of a battleground district for 16 years. And he will pull all the stops to triumph over his latest challenger.

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