Ovie Omo-Agege was for many years a member of the PDP in Delta State but is now running to break the 24-year hold of the party on the oil-rich state as the governorship candidate of the APC
The Deputy Senate President, Ovie Omo-Agege, is running to become the next governor of Delta State in Nigeria's South-south region in the 11 March governorship election.
But the two-term senator for Delta Central district has a major hurdle standing between him and the actualisation of his ambition: the political status quo in the state. The political status quo in the oil-rich state is that only one political party has produced governors in the state since the country returned to civil administration in 1999. That party is the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
Mr Omo-Agege, a lawyer by training and no doubt a strong political force, is running on the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC), a party that waltzed its way into the political equation of the state only in 2013 when O'tega Emerhor contested on the platform of the party in the 12 October 2013 Delta Central senatorial bye-election which he lost to the candidate of the PDP.
Mr Emerhor is the first person across Nigeria to have contested on the ticket of the APC that was registered on 6 February 2013. In any case, it is safe to say that the APC is gathering momentum in the state given the array of top politicians who have since pitched their tent with the opposition party. Yet, it appears that the buzzing momentum is not formidable enough to dislodge the PDP, which has almost become a political orthodoxy in the state, from power as some local analysts have been saying.
While the APC had a gubernatorial candidate - Mr Emerhor - in 2015 who could not mine much mileage in terms of votes, the party, at least, produced a senator in the 2019 general elections and that senator, representing the biggest senatorial district- Delta Central - is Mr Omo-Agege. As of now, APC has an additional senator: Peter Nwaboshi, representing Delta North, courtesy of defection. Mr Nwaboshi, now in jail after his conviction for fraud recently, is also the candidate of the APC for Delta North. Ned Nwoko of the PDP is his major opponent in the district.
Mr Omo-Agege emerged as the gubernatorial candidate of the APC last year after battling for the party's ticket with aspirants like the current minister of state for labour and productivity, Festus Keyamo, who initially led a faction of the party but has now pledged to work for the party in the elections following post-primary reconciliations with the deputy senate president.
Although there are other candidates for the election, including a perennial contestant, Great Ogboru (APGA), every political metric shows that the battle is between PDP candidate Sheriff Oborevwori, who is the current Speaker of the Delta State House of Assembly, and Mr Omo-Agege.
Sheriff's emergence
Sheriff Oborevwori, who is from Osubi in Okpe Local Government Area of the state in the same Delta Central as Mr Omo-Agege, emerged as the candidate of the PDP last year against James Ibori's choice - David Edevbie - a former finance commissioner and ex-principal private secretary to the late President Umaru Yar'dua.
All attempts by Mr Ibori to install Mr Edevbie as the candidate of the PDP were rebuffed by Governor Ifeanyi Okowa who backed Mr Oborevwori to fly the party's ticket.
The emergence of Mr Oborevwori has created a subterranean estrangement between the governor, who is the vice presidential candidate of the PDP, and Mr Ibori, a former godfather to Mr Okowa. The estrangement is yet to thaw as Mr Ibori has neither openly campaigned nor identified with Mr Oborevwori.
Mr Ibori, it was said, while he was yet to serve out his prison time in the UK upon conviction for corruption, deployed everything in his political armoury to ensure that Mr Okowa was nominated the candidate of the PDP in 2015. The then governor, Emmanuel Uduaghan, had preferred the late Anthony Obuh as his successor.
Omo-Agege's political trajectory
Mr Omo-Agege, 59, is not a newbie on the political firmament of Delta State. At least, he has been an active participant since he was first appointed as an executive assistant in 2003 by then-Governor Ibori.
He was later elevated to the position of commissioner for special duties in 2005, from where he was appointed as the Secretary to the State Government in 2007. Before then, he had contested the PDP governorship primaries but lost to Mr Uduaghan, the anointed candidate of Mr Ibori.
After losing his quest for the ticket of the PDP in 2007 and 2015, Mr Omo-Agege found himself on the fringe of the political turf in the state until 2015 when he was elected senator for Delta Central. The district is considered a stronghold of the PDP but Mr Omo-Agege won the election on the platform of the Labour Party, a hitherto unknown party in the state which he joined in 2015.
He later defected to the APC on 7 March 2017 and became a strong ally of President Muhammadu Buhari, always defending and providing a shield for Mr Buhari in the 8th Senate. His constant altercation with the then leadership of the Senate, especially his criticism of his colleagues over the Senate's handling of the Electoral Act (2010), earned him a suspension for 180 days, which was later reduced to 90 legislative days. The suspension was later quashed by the court.
He stood for reelection to the Senate in 2019 on the ticket of the APC and won. He also emerged as the Deputy Senate President on 11 June 2019, a position some commentators interpreted as his reward for the many 'troubles' he undertook in the 8th Senate to defend Mr Buhari and his policies.
His strengths
In this governorship election, Mr Omo-Agege has a formidable opponent in the candidate of the PDP, who is a political scientist by training. However, political commentators who are conversant with the two candidates say the candidate of the APC has a better understanding of the state's problems than his PDP opponent.
Deltans, whose views were sought on the issue, said the state cannot afford to elect someone who is not academically sound as that will be considered a dent to the collective identity of the people who are known for their passion for education.
Aside from being academically sound, Mr Omo-Agege has also done well for his district as a senator, attracting important developmental projects to the district and even to some other parts of the state beyond his district.
Chukudi Azaka, a political analyst in the state, told this reporter that among the three senators representing the state, Mr Omo-Agege stands out in terms of performance vis-a-vis infrastructure development and human capacity empowerment.
Another advantage that the Deputy Senate President has is the perceived disenchantment of the people with Governor Okowa over his uneven distribution of development projects in the state, failure to pay pension and gratuity to retirees, his penchant for continuous borrowings which have ballooned the debt profile of the state and also for picking Mr Oborevwori whom many believe was chosen by the governor to cover his tracks when he is no longer in charge.
There is also the belief in some quarters that though the state has always been a PDP stronghold since the dawn of the Fourth Republic, things are no longer the way they used to be.
"All the major players in the APC now used to be top members of the PDP, so they know what to do to checkmate the PDP," a civil servant in the employ of the state government told PREMIUM TIMES. As pointed out earlier, Mr Omo-Agege was in and out of the PDP until 2015 when he eventually left for the LP and then APC, his current abode.
His weaknesses
Much as his supporters believe that Mr Omo-Agege will make a good governor if elected, his 'authoritarian' style of leadership of the APC, according to some members of the party who preferred not to be named, could also be his albatross. He joined the APC in 2017 as a defector but now has the entire leadership structure of the party in the state at his beck and call. For this and other reasons, some chieftains of the party have left to find political accommodation in other parties in the state, especially in the ruling PDP. However, some chieftains of the PDP have also defected to the APC. As usual, at this time, it is a cross-diffusion movement across parties by dissatisfied politicians.
The same is said of his running mate, Friday Osanebi, who on joining the party from the PDP allegedly displaced the leaders he met and imposed his associates. The result is the exodus of many members from the APC into the PDP, the most recent being the resignation of almost all the LGA executives of the APC in his home Ndokwa East LGA. This is typical behaviour of a lot of Nigerian politicians. Once they take charge, they dominate and subdue others completely. It is either you are for them or you are choked out.
There is also a complaint among some of Mr Omo-Agege's constituents in Delta Central who accuse him of citing all the major projects he attracted in his Orogun community only. The federal polytechnic, a proposed new campus of the Nigerian Law School and the independent power project, among others, are some of these projects cited.
Running a gubernatorial campaign and election is capital-intensive. Candidates spend several billions of naira on campaigns, mobilisation and logistics, among others. It is not a race for those who do not have deep pockets. Mr Omo-Agege is rich by the Nigerian standard. Mr Azaka, however, told this reporter that "he also doesn't have the financial war chest the PDP boasts of."
Factors that may shape the gubernatorial election:
Aside from the major strengths of the Deputy Senate President, which may swing victory his way in the 11 March election, two major factors are also very critical: the James Ibori factor and the outcome of the presidential election.
The James Ibori Factor
In and out of power, Mr Ibori has been a strong factor in the politics of Delta State since 1999. After governing for eight years, he installed his cousin, Mr Uduaghan, from Delta South as his successor and also facilitated the emergence of Mr Okowa, from Delta North as the successor of Mr Uduaghan. This is aside from contributing to the emergence of senators, House of Representatives members and House of Assembly members.
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While some say he is the major deciding factor in the state, others say his influence is waning, especially with the way his preferred candidate, Mr Edvebie, lost to Mr Okowa's choice in the PDP primaries. However, his associate of many political struggles, Ighoyota Amori, is the PDP senatorial candidate for Delta Central while his daughter - Erhiatake Ibori -Suenu- is the House of Representatives candidate for the Ethiope Federal Constituency.
It has to be stated that Mr Omo-Agege defeated the PDP in Delta Central in 2015 and 2019 respectively despite the district being the stronghold of Mr Ibori, another pointer to the perceived waning influence of the former Delta helmsman.
Because of the way the tussle for the PDP governorship ticket was won and lost between Messrs Okowa and Ibori, no one can say exactly who Mr Ibori is supporting. "I am sure the picture will get clearer after 25 February. But one can assume that he isn't happy with Okowa. His body language clearly reveals that. His dilemma, however, is the fact that his daughter is a PDP House of Representatives candidate," Mr Azaka said about Mr Ibori.
Mr Ibori has not associated with the candidate of the PDP in public, an indication some have interpreted to mean that he is going to support Mr Omo-Agege, his erstwhile political appointee. Some say Mr Omo-Agege has been making deft moves to also get the support of Mr Ibori.
Whoever Mr Ibori supports has a big chance of winning the election which, in the interim, is seen as too close to call between Messrs Omo-Agege and Oborevwori.
The outcome of the presidential election
Though most partisan supporters have made up their minds on whom to vote for no matter what, the outcome of the 25 February presidential election is most likely to have a bandwagon effect on the governorship election.
If the PDP wins the presidential election, it is almost certain that Delta will go the way of the party to maintain the status quo. However, if the candidate of the APC, Bola Tinubu, wins, then the state may fall into the APC fold. In the event that Peter Obi, candidate of the Labour Party, wins, then the state will be up for grabs between the PDP and the APC. The LP candidate in the state, Pela Kennedy, has almost zero chance of winning the election; the same as other governorship candidates in the election.
For now, no one can say if Mr Omo-Agege will win the election. He has a 50 per cent chance of doing that just like his main opponent, Mr Oborevwori.
