"INEC officials were present at polling stations before they opened at 0830 in just 36.7% of cases according to our observers with 32.5% arriving an hour or more after voting was scheduled to have commenced," it stated.
Last Saturday's presidential and legislative elections were defined by four issues: election day operational challenges and the use of technology, violence and voter suppression, voter behaviour and the influence of money, and online falsehoods, the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD) said in a report on Tuesday.
The four issues "shaped the process, and provide some initial reflections on emerging trends from the voting so far", the think thank said while making recommendations for "improving future processes in the short, medium and long time."
It said INEC's new electoral technology appears to have struggled to meet expectations and improve transparency in the results collation process in particular, whilst the digital landscape continues to amplify existing tensions, with narratives that play up identities and party affiliations and question INECs performance and credibility.
CDD added that INEC's election day performance was not seamless, leading to the late start to voting in various polling units across the country.
"INEC officials were present at polling stations before they opened at 0830 in just 36.7% of cases according to our observers with 32.5% arriving an hour or more after voting was scheduled to have commenced," it stated.
It said a low turnout and a tendency to exchange cash for votes remained a feature of Nigerian elections. Violence, predominantly carried out by actors affiliated with political parties, was another enduring feature in some parts of the country during the election.
The first stage of the 2023 elections was held as scheduled on 25 February 2023; a feat not achieved in the past three elections, which were all rescheduled.
INEC had received commendation that it stuck to schedule in spite of prevailing insecurity across the country, perpetual fuel scarcity and the naira redesign policy, which created currency shortages and threatened to derail operational plans.
Although INEC confirmed that it had received the necessary resources shortly before the elections, CDD said deployment plans appear to have been affected by the uncertainty it caused in some instances.
The CDD said it noted the late arrival of INEC staff and election materials, resulting in the late commencement of the polls.
Late commencement of voting was pronounced in the country's south-east, it said.
CDD said this is likely linked to concerns for "personal safety given that two-thirds of the attacks recorded against INEC since the start of 2021 have been in this geopolitical zone."
The centre added that some challenges with the use of the bimodal voter accreditation system (BVAS) were also noted. "Technical issues were also noted by our observers, with 23.1 per cent having witnessed issues of BVAS malfunction. This was particularly acute in the northeast, with 42.7 per cent of observers recording a malfunction, but was also high in the northwest (28.7 per cent)."
On the other hand, CDD said, INEC's contingency planning was broadly effective, with more than two-thirds of the technical hitches resolved within one hour, and where the technology was working accreditation happened at a good pace.
"A further consequence of the late opening of polls was that voting continued into the evening in states such as Plateau, Lagos and Imo, following INECs election day confirmation that those in the queue to vote by the original 14:30 cut-off time would be allowed to cast their ballot," the centre added.
This was not only a result of opening delays and technical challenges but also a consequence of problematic polling station allocations which led to scenarios where some polling units had just a handful of voters whilst others had more than 2,000, it noted.
Another issue raised by the civic group was the INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV), which was designed to provide real-time transmission of election results (Form EC 80A) from polling units to the central collation centre in an attempt to enhance the transparency of the electoral process and reduce the incidence of vote rigging and election manipulation.
Up till midnight on election day, there were no results uploaded to the platform for the presidential results.
INEC stated in a statement on Sunday that the challenges were a result of "technical hitches related to the scaling up of the IReV platform" but the delay in making this statement provided room for unproven rumours to flourish that point to the incomplete polling unit results on the platform as evidence of vote rigging.
By Monday afternoon, 53,154 polling unit results out of a total of 176,734 were publicly available on the platform. INEC is still updating the portal.
Two major opposition political parties, Labour Party and PDP, have called for the cancellation of the 2023 presidential election results, citing the delay to update the IReV portal as a ground to manipulate the process.
Voter behaviour and Low turnout
Despite well-documented instances of insecurity in all six geopolitical zones, and notwithstanding the fuel and currency scarcity that threatened to derail the electoral process, Nigerians, particularly the youth, had shown a strong interest in participating in this election.
Nonetheless, turnout as a percentage of total registered voters looks likely to be lower in 2023 than the 35 per cent figure recorded in 2019 based on the results announced so far, continuing a pattern of declining electoral participation in Nigeria that began in 2003.
This is despite INEC confirming the national average of PVC card collection at 93.3 per cent ahead of the elections.
"The fact that a significant percentage of Nigerians fail to engage in elections is a concern and perhaps points to growing disillusionment with their ability to shape a more democratic society," CDD said.
Although vote buying appears to have reduced as compared with recent off-cycle elections, the centre said 11 per cent of observers reported some form of vote buying taking place in or around their polling units. This was highest in the North-west followed by the South-west and the North-east, CDD added.
"Vote buying is used more by political parties in their strongholds, where they want to ensure that those inclined to vote for them are encouraged to do so. For the most part, vote buying appears to be the preserve of the two major parties in the last two elections - the All Progressive Congress and People's Democratic Party - with the Labour Party's limited structures and resources meaning that it was less able to compete on this front."
"This election also saw an increased use of basic foodstuffs, household goods and materials being exchanged for votes, with observers in states such as Kwara, Imo and Bayelsa all reporting numerous incidents. In Lagos, there was even evidence of politicians willing to provide bank transfers to voters under the guise of "business assistance schemes", ostensibly a creative way to buy voters given the limitations on the availability of cash."
Intimidation, in many cases linked to identity or political party affiliation, was recorded across the country and was reported by 3.4 per cent of CDD observers.
"It was most commonplace in the northwest, south-south and southeast. One instance of voter intimidation reported by an observer in Anambra state detailed how party agents were standing aside (outside) the voting cubicle directing voters as to how they should cast their ballot in full view of INEC ad-hoc staff."
Largely conducted by political parties thugs or loosely affiliated individuals, some of the intimidation were designed to suppress votes centred around ethnic identity, CDD said, citing examples of Lagos where threats were made against "Igbos by prominent political thugs like MC Oluomo."
Overall, observers reported low incidents of violence, vandalism and destruction, which were observed in a small percentage of polling units, the centre said.
Online falsehoods
The organisation also observed the rise of synthetic and manipulated media images, doctored to push certain narratives against candidates. Videos were also presented out of context to misinform the voting public.
Efforts to undermine INEC's credibility were recorded throughout the campaign and even as polls were set to open, CDD said.
For instance, an audio file that started as a WhatsApp voice note and evolved into a video that was shared across platforms claimed the PDP candidate was working with the INEC to rig elections. Disinformation peddlers stitched the voices of Atiku and two other political actors together to form a conversation about rigging the election.
Then, shortly after the elections, political actors and influencers started sharing unverified election results immediately after polls closed in some areas and took advantage of the small trickle of election results.
"There were also many reports around electoral malpractice and the lack of crisis communications from INEC allowed such accusations to go unchecked. Rumours of rigging are being enhanced in some instances by pre-election polling that presents a different picture to the reality now emerging," CDD said.
"Despite fact-checks of these proving the falsehoods many persons will still choose to believe the disinformation, as long as it favours their political leaning. The politicisation of fact-checking is furthering this challenge. Furthermore, distributing fact-checks via media houses is a challenge as several expressed concern that they cannot publish or share some of them because it would seem like they are working for certain candidates.
"Social media companies were largely non-responsive to election day mal-information. Meta took down one post about misleading images about INEC offices in northern Nigeria, and Twitter suspended an imitation account claiming to be the wife of President Muhammadu Buhari on the eve of the election for sharing misinformation about naira redesign policy, but no activity was taken in response to more than 20 pieces of false content flagged by CDD fact-checkers," it added.
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CDD concluded that Nigeria is likely to see another wave of electoral litigation in its courts that will likely reverse some electoral outcomes and perhaps even impact governance in the short term.
Recommendations
INEC continues to face a perception versus reality challenge, the think tank said, adding, to ensure voters better understand the reasons behind delays or technical hitches, for example, more proactive communication is needed.
"This can allow INEC to set the agenda and explain the reasoning for operational issues, rather than allowing others to set a more politicised narrative which becomes difficult to counter. INEC should revise its communication policy and train staff to support proactive communication with voters. Doing so will help improve transparency and accountability to citizens and reduce the risk of social media rumours setting the narrative."
CDD recommended that investigations into voting day violence, and those involved in voter suppression and vote buying should be thorough and result in convictions where proven.
A more robust stress testing of IReV is needed to avoid its malfunction undermining the forthcoming governorship process, more than it strengthens transparency around it.
It advised effective collaboration between INEC and the judiciary in properly adjudicating complaints concerning the election process; saying this will be crucial to avoid significant instances of candidates being 'elected' by the courts, rather than by the electorate.
"Political parties must take more seriously their commitments to peace laid out in the National Peace Accord by reigning in thugs acting at their direction.
"Social media companies need to expand their ability to respond promptly to falsehoods circulating on their platform, particularly on and immediately after election day. There should be improved collaboration with recognised fact-checking platforms to allow for quick response and action," the centre said.
In the future, CDD recommends an independent post-election review by a group of civil society organisations that observed the election, alongside representatives from legal bodies. This should be constituted to provide a report and recommendations on a way forward for continued improvement in the management of elections.
