An FPA Analytical Preview of Lone Star's Chance for A 3rd AFCON Bid Amidst Fears of Past Missed Opportunities
MONROVIA - Any Liberian less than 21 years old has never seen his or her National Football Team partake at the bi-annual event of the African Cup of Nations. That's how long the Lone Star has been absent from Africa's most prized continental football showdown. Out of the past 33 editions of the AFCON, Liberia's Lone Star has participated just twice, making its debut at South Africa 1996 & then at Mali 2002. Captained on both occasions by Africa's sole World Best and current President of Liberia, George Manneh Oppong Weah, the Lone Star failed to progress beyond the group stage of both editions. The proceeding qualifiers witnessed either a near- miss or a dismal performance, eluding the Lone Star. Ahead of
With Tuesday's return 'do-or-die' battle with their South African opponents with whom they made a historic comeback of a goal two deficit to level, lots of Liberians are very nervous about their country's qualification to its 3rd ever AFCON appearance. But why are they nervous and to some extent apprehensive when the Lone Star only needs to win the Bafana Bafana to book a spot to neighboring Ivory Coast?
Since it was officially opened on July 26, 1986, the Samuel Kanyon Doe (SKD) Stadium has provided mixed results for the Liberian National Team when qualification to the AFCON and even World Cup Finals mattered.
While it is true that the Lone Star has won more games at the SKD Stadium than it has lost, the concern ahead of the March 28, 2023 vs South Africa match is how much of a fortune has the SKD offered the Lone Star when such a game would determine automatic qualification, whether such was for an AFCON Final or a World Cup Final.
Few years after its dedication, tournament game- deciders at the SKD didn't favor the Lone Star, especially given that those years required two sets of preliminary games. For instance, despite narrowing qualifying for the second round of the 1988 Finals at the expense of its neighbors, the Leone Stars of Sierra Leone, the Lone Star didn't go beyond that stage. In its 1990 AFCON bid that was to be held in Algeria, it took Mali's Eagles to eliminate the Lone Star at the SKD in 1988.
However, the SKD proved a good fortune for the Lone Star when it made history during the 1990 World Cup qualifier campaign slated for Italy by beating the in-form Pharaohs of Egypt, reportedly being the only country to have won the Egyptians. Liberians also record the historic win of the Lone Star's 1st win in a major competition over the Black Stars of Ghana in the late 1980's that spurred the spontaneous street song "Oppong opened it, Debbah closed it", depicting the two goals scored by the country's two most prolific soccer stars in George Weah and James Debbah respectively.
The early years of the 1990's saw the Lone Star struggling to qualify for the finals of the AFCON, missing out on Tunisia 1994 at the hands of Ghana at the SKD two goals to nothing. Hopeful Liberian fans who had anticipated a redux of the "Oppong opened it, Debbah closed it" left the SKD heads down.
However, en route to its first ever AFCON finals, the Lone Star made the SKD Stadium a 'slaughter house' for it visiting opponents, recording historic wins against the likes of Tunisia, Togo and others. In fact, it was a James Debbah brace against Mauritania at the SKD in June of 1995 that secured the country's first AFCON Finals at South Africa 1996. This was the first time a game at the SKD that should have determined the Lone Stars' presence at an AFCON final did come true.
After missing out on France 1998 World Cup and Burkina Faso 1998 AFCON finals with dismal performances in the two qualifiers, a Lone Star squad in its prime pulled the triggers as being the continent's 'Giant Killers'. Dubbed the George Weah IX, the Lone Star proved very fearless during the combined campaign qualifiers of Mali 2002 AFCON Finals and South Korea-Japan World Cup 2002.
Simultaneously battling these two different qualifiers in two different top groups, the fierce-looking Lone Star went to even break the jinx of being poor-travelers, beating away matches. But the amazing admirations of even its opponents were the manner in which Lone Star was even beating their opponents in increasing numerical orders at the SKD: A then seemingly 'indomitable' Super Eagles of Nigeria got the first punch of 2-1, followed by Cape Verde with a 3-0 scoreline; then came victims from the island country of Mauritius 4-0 before going on to record the biggest SKD win of 5-1 of a competitive match against the Red Devils of DR Congo after coming from a goal down.
As a matter of fact, it was against the very Bafana Bafana of South Africa that the Lone Star secured its second AFCON final ticket at the SKD with a 1-1 draw in June of 2002 despite the Lone Star fielding a relatively weaker team as it then aimed for its possible World Cup ticket.
But keen followers of Liberia's Lone Star's qualification bids in recent years have had bad than better memories in which they are struggling to draw some confidence from.
At the top of that disappointing and miserable memory is the July, 2001 SKD nightmare when the Lone Star was just two games away from making global football history: to qualify for its 1st ever World Cup that was being jointly held by South Korea and Japan the following year. Having won a stronger Black Stars of Ghana on home soil in Accra, the Weah-Debbah led Lone Star only needed to win a relatively weaker, local Black Stars that were already out of contention at the SKD. Thereafter, even a draw in neighboring Sierra Leone would have won the ticket at Nigeria's Super Eagles' expense.
But that was not going to the case. That July of 2001 remained itched in the minds of Liberian fans , most of whom till today's date are bearing the traumatic experience and the brutal treatments of the then feared-government paramilitary group, the Anti-Terrorist Unit (ATU) during the Charles Taylor Administration. At the final whistle, the scoreline was the 'strongest' Lone Star team in decades 1, a 'weaker, local' Black Stars team 2. Though the Lone Star would go on to win its last match in Freetown 1-0, courtesy of a not-too-fit George Weah goal, it was Nigeria's Super Eagles who qualified at Liberia's expense with 16 points against Liberia's 15 points. That single point that caused Liberia's closest and first ever World Cup ticket hasn't been flushed down the commode by many Liberian football fans.
Two other closer steps to the AFCON finals were wasted in 2017 and 2019 respectively. Though the 2017 mishap was not at the SKD Stadium but at the Antoinette Tubman Staduim (ATS), a Debbah coached Lone Star threw away a two-goal lead against an Emmanuel Adebayo led-Hawks of Togo which leveled all two goals, costing the Lone Stars yet again another AFCON finals. Debbah, vividly remembering that game and probably others, over the weekend took to his Facebook page a day after congratulating Coach Ansu Keita and his boys, admonishing them against any form of complacency: "No room for complacency because of home turf, we have to battle to the end".
Twenty-one years later after Lone Star's last appearance at an AFCON Final, another glaring and unique opportunity avails itself again and against a very familiar opponent against whom Liberia secured its Mali ticket. With a better head-to-head advantage over their South African opponents, the Liberians will only need a win to secure all three points in Tuesday's match and boom, and the entire nation will go into frenzy for its 3rd AFCON Finals. The venue of next January's finals even makes it better for Liberians, as they only need to cross the Ivorian border and locate any of the five cities that the Lone Star would be grouped.
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There's actually no reason to emphasize the essence of being in Ivory Coast as every game of the Lone Star would literally translate into a 'home match' due to the proximity of the country as well as the already large presence of Liberians in Ivory Coast, Ghana and other neighboring countries.
But that will only require one thing: Lone Star must clinch all three points against a South African team which too also needs all three points to secure automatic qualification. A win for either side places it at 4 points with each still having a returned leg against an in-form and already qualified Atlas Lions of Morocco side, the African country that made history at last year's World Cup as being the first to reach semi-final.
And to Liberia's advantage is the "Head To Head" rule which currently places the Lone Star in 2nd place behind Morocco after 2 games from each of the three countries. Though both Lone Star and Bafana Bafana have 1 point each, it's the former's 2 away goals in South Africa that have placed them in pool position, requiring just a win on Tuesday to secure a hotel in one of the five Ivorian designated cities hosting the Nation's Cup next January. Even if Lone Star loses its last game against current leaders Morocco and after South Africa would have even beaten the Atlas Lions, both Liberia and South Africa would be on 4 points but the "Head to Head" rule would take the Lone Star to its 3rd ever AFCON Finals!!
