The outcry over lack of religious balance in the winning APC presidential ticket is echoing in the races for leadership positions in the 10th National Assembly
On 9 June 2022, the youngest presidential aspirant at the APC National Convention, Nicholas Felix, climbed the stage at the Eagle Square and endorsed Vice President Yemi Osinbajo. Although the night can be characterised as the "Night of endorsements", Mr Felix's speech that night can, with hindsight, also be characterised as a "prophetic pronouncement " that continues to dog the heels of Bola Tinubu.
"Apart from the North and the South, Nigerians are divided into two religions, we have Muslims and Christians. I grew up with Muslims--wonderful people. Many of them are my friends, but we cannot have a Muslim/Muslim ticket in this election," Mr Felix warned the party delegates.
Earlier, the delegates had been bombarded with SMS from unknown persons that Mr Tinubu would field a Muslim running mate if nominated. The Tinubu camp quickly denounced the text messages. Despite all these, Mr Tinubu won the primary in a landslide.
And as stated by Mr Felix, the candidate went ahead to pick a Muslim running mate to the chagrin of many within and outside his party. Opposition to the selection was vehement and vigorous.
Even though Mr Tinubu has no record of religious fanaticism, it did not stop many from accusing him of having an "Islamization agenda" that must be stopped by any means necessary. His overture to the Christian Association of Nigeria and appointment of Simon Lalong as the Director-General of his campaign did not stop some Christian clerics from openly speaking against his candidacy. Mr Tinubu's argument that he chose Mr Shettima based on the latter's competence and not religious consideration did not also pacify his critics.
Allies turned foes like Babachir Lawal, a former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, and Yakubu Dogara, a former Speaker of the House of Representatives, vehemently campaigned against Mr Tinubu to "serve as a deterrent against anyone contemplating such arrangement in the future."
Mr Tinubu's camp apparently believes that a Muslim from the South aspiring for the presidency must follow the 1993 winning ticket of Moshood Abiola and Babagana Kingibe's Muslim/Muslim.
Despite all the opposition, Mr Tinubu was declared as president-elect by INEC on 1 March, as those opposed to the same faith ticket failed to deliver the fatal blow to stop him from winning the 25 February poll.Although Mr Tinubu won and believes competence should be prioritised over religious and ethnic considerations, many Nigerians including members of his party believe there is a "religion debt" to be repaid by him and the ruling party. The first test ahead of the president-elect is filling the National Assembly leadership positions - Senate President, Deputy Senate President, Speaker and Deputy Speaker.
While the leadership positions in the National Assembly by convention are supposed to be decided by the lawmakers, the party with the majority has a role, as regards zoning and balance.
The APC already has the majority in the Senate with 57 senators from the 102 already declared but it is yet to secure the majority in the House, as its current 162 members are short of the 181 seats required to form the majority.
On the geopolitical zoning arrangement, the president-elect is from the South-west, while the vice-president elect is from the North-east. The remaining regions are North-west, North-central, South-east and South-south. The APC has never been the dominant party at the polls in the last two regions.
The ruling party has the delicate task of spreading the leadership positions among the six geo-political zones, dealing with the personal ambition of members and still factoring religion into the equation. All eyes will be on the ruling party, bearing in mind its inability to ensure geographical spread since 2015 during which the South-east and South-south were not represented among Nigeria's top four citizens: President, Vice President, Senate President and Speaker. The highest position the regions have produced is Deputy Senate President.
Historical trend of the APC
In 2015, despite the president and vice president being from the North-west and South-west, the ruling party anointed Ahmad Lawan and Femi Gbajabiamila as Senate President and Speaker respectively. In terms of spread, the choice had two major issues - lack of geographical and religious spread.
Prior to 2015, the PDP was able to ensure that the Senate President and Speaker were not of the same faith. However, the APC nominated two Muslims. Aside from religion, Mr Gbajabiamila is also from the South-west, the same region as Vice President Yemi Osinbajo.
The composition of the APC ticket was, however, no match for the Bukola Saraki and Yakubu Dogara's tickets. Mr Saraki, a Muslim from the North-central was able to clinch the Senate President seat by working with the opposition in the Senate and bargaining with the Deputy Senate President - a position clinched by Ike Ekweremadu, a PDP senator from Southeast.
Mr Dogara, a Christian from the North-east, also emerged as the Speaker by defeating Mr Gbajabimaila, who had paired with Mohammed Monguno, another Muslim from the North-east.
In 2019, the party replicated Messrs Lawan and Gbajabiamila. Mr Lawan paired with Senator Ovie Omo-Agege from the South-south, while Mr Gbajabaila paired with Idris Wase from the North-central. The joint tickets delivered victory for the anointed candidates.
However, the South-east continued to struggle for a place in the party. In 2015, the APC noted that the South-east did not have a ranking member from the party in the Senate. But in the 2023 elections, the South-east and South-south have members on the platform of the APC, and some are ranking members.
The number game
The ruling party lost some seats in the National Assembly during this last election. For instance, the party lost 19 seats in Kano, and significant numbers in Gombe, Kaduna, Katsina, Osun and a few other places in the House of Representatives. To put it in proper context, by March 2019, APC already had 211 seats in the House but currently has 162 seats.
Right now, the combination of the seats of the minority parties is 163 seats against the 162 seats of the ruling party. Thus, the APC may be concerned about its numerical strength, considering the history of rebellion in the National Assembly.
In 2011, the then-ruling party, PDP, endorsed Mulikat Akande as the Speaker, but Aminu Tambuwal connived with the main opposition party in the House to emerge as the speaker.
The 2015 rebellion has been explained earlier. Interestingly, one of the victims of the 2015 rebellion, Mr Gbajabiamila, in 2019, guided against the rebellion by appointing the leader of the 2015 rebellion, Abdulmummin Jibrin, as his campaign director.
A disgruntled member of the Senate or House may collaborate to pull off the 2015 rebellion. The opposition can also join forces to snatch the principal offices from the APC.
On 15 April, the ruling party will hope to take more seats in the supplementary elections in 31 constituencies to gain a majority in the House and expand its majority in the Senate.
Religious and regional alignments
As stated earlier, the ruling party has some sort of religious debt it has to pay. Many are of the opinion that the ruling party should zone the Senate presidency to the South and ensure that it must be a Christian candidate.
"We have the presidential election on the basis of Muslim/Muslim ticket, I am not sure we want to stretch it by having the number three position as a Muslim as well," Akin Alabi, a federal lawmaker from Oyo State recently stated during an interview on Channels TV. "The choice of a Muslim/Muslim ticket might rule out the top guys from the North-west," he added.
In the event that the party prioritises religion for the Senate presidency race, then the race will be between the South-east and the South-south, while the speakership race will be between the North-west and North-central.
South-east
As things stand, the South-east appears to be looking at the Senate presidency as about three candidates have shown interest in the position. The Chief Whip of the Senate and former governor of Abia State, Orji Kalu (APC, Abia), has declared interest and even used the "it is my turn" slogan to drive home his point. However, he has a formidable opponent from the region in Governor David Umahi of Ebonyi, who has also declared interest in the position. And there is also Osita Izunaso, a ranking senator by virtue of previously serving in the House of Representatives. He is from Imo State.
However, there is a major setback for the South-east region, which is the poor performance of the party again in the region. For instance, APC was unable to get 25 per cent of the votes cast in any of the five states in the South-east in the presidential election. The presidential candidate got a total of 127,605 votes from the five states in the region, fewer votes than it got in Akwa Ibom, a state in the South-south.
But there are calls from some quarters for a government of national unity, and this could be a strong case for the South-east.
In the event that the region fails to get the Senate presidency, another option will be Speakership, a position the South-east is yet to occupy since the return of democracy, save for when Emeka Ihedioha served in an acting capacity. Some of the ranking members of the region include the spokesperson of the House, Ben Kalu from Abia State, Miriam Onuoha from Imo State and Chinedu Ogah from Ebonyi State.
South-south
The South-south region will get a boost if the religious factor is a major determinant. Godswill Akpabio and Adams Oshiomhole are the two names that come to mind. In the case of the latter, the issue of ranking will weigh against him. However, it is more of an issue of convention rather than law. Thus, ex-governors can easily make strong arguments against the convention.
Although the two are yet to publicly declare interest in the race, some persons outside the region are already making a case for them. The APC deputy chairman (Northwest), Salihu Lukman, has urged the ruling party to consider the South-south for the position.
"For instance, if the Senate President is to come from the South-East, he would certainly be a Christian. The only problem is the experience of 1999 - 2003, which highlighted problems of instability with the South-East holding the position of Senate President. Also, as at 1999, the South-East strongly voted for the PDP to emerge as the ruling party. The same could not be said today," Mr Lukman said in a recent statement.
Mr Lukman's argument is based on performance at the presidential election.
The ruling party got 799,957 votes from the South-south. And aside from the electoral performance, the region can argue that it is yet to produce a senate president and speaker. Also, Mr Oshiomhole has a close relationship with Mr Tinubu from their Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) days, while Mr Akpabio stepped down for the president-elect at the primaries. The 132,683 votes from his Akwa-Ibom State may be considered by party faithful as strong performance.
The two individuals will face separate challenges within the party. There are those still aggrieved with the alleged high headedness of Mr Oshiomhole during his tenure as National Chairman of the APC, and Mr Akpabio is facing investigation for corruption. He was also until 2019 a PDP member.
In the event the speakership is available as an option, the South-south may struggle with candidates, although, the party has the deputy leader of the House, Peter Akpatason, and Julius Ihonvbere, who are both from Edo State, and also Waive Francis from Delta State. However, these lawmakers may not tick the mark of a potential speaker.
North-central
The region is positioned for the two options -- Speaker and Senate President. Two candidates from Plateau State, Deputy Speaker Idris Wase and Yusuf Gagdi, have already emerged as front runners for the speakership position. Equally, Tunji Raheem, a lawmaker from Kwara State, has also declared interest in the race.
So far, Mr Wase has taken his campaign beyond the National Assembly. He has visited Governors Hope Uzodinma and Nyesom Wike of Imo and Rivers States respectively. He appears to be seeking bipartisan support for his ambition. It is unclear how he will take it if the party decides to zone the position elsewhere.In 2019, the region backed the Gbajabiamila/Wase ticket for the speakership, despite Umar Bago contesting for Speaker on the "North Central Agenda". The region may be looking at payback for loyalty.
The North-central is in a good position in the Speakership race if it is zoned to the region. One, the region has never produced a Speaker since 1999, and secondly, in terms of performance, the ruling party won four out of the six states in the region in the presidential election.
The region is equally positioning itself for the Senate presidency with Musa Sani, a lawmaker from Niger State. Whichever way the party decides to go, the North-central is expected to be in the scheme of things.
But when it comes to the Senate President's seat, the North-central has occupied it more than any other region - David Mark from Benue State served eight years, and Bukola Saraki served four years.
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North-west
The Northwest used to be the heartbeat of the ruling party. However, the party suffered a significant setback in the region in the last presidential and National Assembly elections. In the presidential election, APC could only win Zamfara and Jigawa out of the seven states in the region.
In Kano State, the party lost 19 House seats and two senatorial seats. In Kaduna State, the party lost the three senatorial seats and got only three out of the 16 Reps seats. In Kebbi State, the party lost several seats.
However, despite the losses, the region still delivered the highest votes for the APC at the presidential election. Also, since 1999, the least position the region has taken is Speakership. Therefore, the region is in a front-running position for Senate Presidency and Speakership.
But the religious factor is against the region. If the party insists on ensuring that a Christian emerges as the Senate President, then the North-west may have to fight for the Speakership.
Senators Abdulaziz Yari and Barau Jibrin have both declared their intention to run. Others like Aliyu Mammako and Kabiru Marafa may also join the race if they emerge winners after the supplementary elections in Sokoto and Zamfara respectively.
On the speakership front, there are speculations that Tajudeen Abass (Kaduna) and Sada Soli (Katsina) are favoured by several lawmakers. Abubakar Makki from Jigawa State has also declared interest to join the race.
Another individual that would have been a front-runner is the majority leader of the House, Alhassan Doguwa, from Kano. But he is facing two major challenges. His election has been declared inconclusive and he is facing murder charges over the death of three persons during the elections.
North-east
Ordinarily, the North-east should not be in the conversation because Mr Shettima, who is the vice president-elect, is from Borno State. However, there are enough precedents to bring the Northeast into the leadership race.
In 2011, Aminu Tambuwal and then Vice President Namadi Sambo were from the same zone. However, the election that brought in Mr Tambuwal emerged through a rebellion because the PDP had zoned the position to the South-west.
The current Vice President, Yemi Osinbajo, and Speaker Femi Gbajabiamila are also both from the same region: South-west. Hence, lawmakers from the North-east are also showing interest in the leadership race.
The Chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, Muktar Betara, has been making underground moves.
The decision of Senate President Ahmad Lawan to fight a tough battle to return to the National Assembly is also raising the speculation that he may jump into the race for a second term.
South-west
The future of Speaker Femi Gbajabiamila is the major talking point as far as the South-west is concerned. Mr Gbajabiamila is one of the closest associates of the president-elect. He won his re-election into the House. The question is, what does he want?
With how divisive the 2023 presidential election was, the words of Mr Felix on 8 June 2022 are still ringing in the ears. The question is, will the ruling party pay off its "religious debt"?
