The emergence of Alex Otti as the governor-elect of the South-eastern state of Abia did not come as a surprise to many observers.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), after a few days of confusion and tension, declared Alex Otti of the Labour Party (LP) as the winner of the 18 March governorship election in Abia State.
The victory ends the dominant rule of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the state with a new governor from a different party to be inaugurated on 29 May.
Established in 1998, the PDP came into power in 1999 when a former head of state, Olusegun Obasanjo, was elected the first Nigerian civilian president after 13 years of turbulent military rule. Like 20 other states in Nigeria, Abia elected the PDP candidate, Orji Kalu, as its first civilian governor, in the same year.
Little break
The PDP has governed the state for almost 24 years - 1999 to 2023 - although the party lost to the defunct Progressives Peoples Alliance (PPA) in the 2007 governorship election in the state.
However, the loss in 2007 was possible for one reason: the outgoing governor, Mr Kalu, had switched to the PPA, a party he founded in 2006 following his disagreement with the national leadership of the PDP.
Mr Kalu subsequently picked Theodore Orji, his former chief of staff, as his successor, and helped him to emerge governor in 2007 under the PPA's platform.
But Mr Orji returned to the PDP on which platform he was re-elected in 2011, while Mr Kalu, now a senator representing Abia North District, defected to the All Progressives Congress (APC).
Mr Orji later anointed Okezie Ikpeazu as his successor, who went ahead to win the 2015 governorship election in the state to continue PDP's rule in the state.Reelected in 2019, Mr Ikpeazu will complete his second term on 29 May.
Otti's victory, a surprise?
But the emergence of Mr Otti as the governor-elect in the South-eastern state did not come as a surprise to many.
It was something many political analysts had predicted, given the odds which were in favour of the LP candidate.
The odds
Peter Obi's effect
Despite being a stronghold of the PDP, Abia State, like other states in the South-east and South-south regions, fell to the "effect" of Peter Obi, the LP candidate in the presidential election.
Mr Obi, a former governor of Anambra State, enjoyed swelling support mainly in the two regions and parts of the North-central.
Incidentally, Mr Otti's entry into the governorship race under the platform of the LP almost coincided with Mr Obi's emergence as the LP presidential candidate.
Mr Obi's emergence as the LP presidential candidate made many people embrace the party as the platform to rescue the country and their states from the old class of politicians in the PDP and APC - believed to be behind alleged bad governance.Although Mr Obi did not win the presidential election, his candidacy triggered mass revolts against the PDP and APC, the two dominant parties in the country.
As a result, many relatively "unknown" LP candidates for other elective positions in many states surprisingly won in the 2023 general elections, even defeating the incumbents.
Mr Ikpeazu, while appearing as a guest recently on Channels TV's Politics Today, admitted that the "effect" of the former governor of Anambra State was the major reason the PDP lost in the governorship election in the state.
The Abia governor was the PDP senatorial candidate for Abia South District but lost in the election to Enyinnaya Abaribe of the All Progressives Grand Alliance. Interestingly, Mr Abaribe had stormed out of the PDP, where he was the Senate Minority Leader, because he was denied the PDP governorship ticket.
"That Peter Obi effect, I predicted it and told my party. I even volunteered that reasonable politicians should not ignore what Peter Obi was doing," the governor said in the interview.
Like the governor, Charles Esonu, the State Commissioner for Youth Development, who served as the State Collation Agent for the PDP in the election, believes Mr Obi's effect was the major factor in the party's loss.
"The biggest factor that made the contest look as if it was anything to go by between the Labour Party and the PDP was the Peter Obi's wave," Mr Esonu, a lawyer, told PREMIUM TIMES.
"Alex Otti has contested several elections in Abia State (but lost in all). The only thing is that this Obi's syndrome now helped him to muster votes (in the election)," he added.
G-5's squabble with PDP
The PDP's poor outing in Abia, like other states in the two regions, observers believe, was slightly aided by the squabble the G-5 governors of the PDP had with the party's presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, as well as the national leadership of the party.
Mr Ikpeazu was a member of the G-5, which was led by Rivers State Governor, Nyesom Wike.
The group had insisted on not supporting Atiku in the election because he failed to facilitate the resignation of the then party's National Chairman, Iyorchia Ayu, to pave the way for a southerner to lead the party in order to achieve a "regional balance".
The governor's argument was that both Mr Ayu and Atiku hail from northern Nigeria.
However, Mr Ayu, after the elections, stepped aside in response to a court judgement which barred him from parading himself as the party's national chairman.
The G-5's ditching of Atiku, observers said, appeared to have worked against the PDP in the 18 March governorship election in Abia, just like in other states. The party's supporters had no clear direction during a period the Peter Obi effect was attracting people.
The drama provided an advantage for Mr Otti to emerge as governor-elect in Abia State.
Inadequate time to market Ahiwe
The PDP in Abia State faced the tough challenge of adequately marketing its governorship candidate who emerged a few weeks before the elections.
Uche Ikonne was elected as the PDP governorship candidate in the state but he died on 25 January. The party nominated Okey Ahiwe to replace the deceased candidate on 4 February, exactly five weeks before the original date for the election.
The election, earlier billed to hold on 11 March, was later postponed by a week (18 March), but some PDP members in the state believed that the party did not have enough time to "market" its candidate to the people.
Peter Aguwamba, a member of the PDP in the state, said though the inadequate time for Mr Ahiwe's campaign contributed to the loss in the governorship election, it was "minor."
"It could be seen as one, but a minor part of them," Mr Aguwamba said about the inadequate time the PDP had to campaign for its candidate in the election.
"But given that this man (Ikonne) had gotten the (PDP governorship) ticket in May last year and had campaigned and reached out to people, he had actually gotten into the minds of the people. He (Ikonne) did all those in six months. What you can do in six months, certainly, you cannot do in two months," he said in reference to the time between Mr Ahiwe's emergence and the governorship election.
In all, the inadequate time for Mr Ahiwe's campaign may have worked in favour of the LP candidate who won the election by a margin of over 84, 000 votes.
Perceived bad governance of PDP governors
For years, residents of Abia State complained of not enjoying the dividends of democracy.
The PDP, the party which had governed the state for over 20 years, has been blamed for the alleged under-development of the state.
Many residents and visitors to Abia usually refer to it as a state with a long history of poor infrastructural development, especially road projects.
That is not far from reality.
A PREMIUM TIMES investigation in 2020, for instance, revealed the terrible condition of road networks as well as poorly executed road projects in the state.
There have been widespread indications of neglect and rot in the state's system. The people had grown increasingly frustrated with successive PDP administrations in the state.
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Mr Otti's entry into the race, his third attempt in a row, therefore, gave Abia people an escape route to perceived bad governance under PDP's watch in the state.
So, when the news of Mr Otti's victory went public, there were widespread jubilations across the state.
In several video clips circulating on social media after the declaration of the LP candidate as the winner of the exercise, some residents were seen claiming that the end of "bad governance" in the state had come.
Analysts said the jubilation shows that the residents were fed up with the perceived poor performances of the PDP-led governments in the state and, therefore, desired a change of government led by another political party.
"Abians have been highly disappointed in the way that the PDP administrations have piloted the affairs of Abia State since the dawn of democracy in 1999," said Chidiebere Nwachukwu, from Isiala-Ngwa North Council Area of the state.
Mr Nwachukwu, a lecturer at the University of Nigeria, Nsukka, said the residents of the state had attempted to unseat the PDP government in 2015 and 2019 but were unsuccessful due to alleged electoral malpractices.
"Fortunately, in 2023, the story was different. So, the spontaneous celebration that you observed among Abia people, soon after the election results were announced, was an indication that Abia people were happy that this time around their votes were allowed to count," he said.
The academic argued that the incumbent governor, Mr Ikpeazu, failed "woefully" in governing Abia, like other PDP governors who had served in the state.
The perceived bad governance of successive PDP governments in the state apparently worked against the party's chances at the poll with Mr Otti seen as a credible route to good governance in the state.
With less than two months to the inauguration of Mr Otti, the former banker will be looking to justify the trust and confidence reposed in him by Abia residents during the election.
