Supplementary polls are being held for three senatorial and 11 federal constituency seats in the state on Saturday.
Supplementary elections are taking place in Sokoto State for the three senatorial and 11 federal constituency seats. The state has the highest number of National Assembly seats where rerun elections are being held.
In the the presidential election of 25 February, the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku Abubakar, polled 288,679 votes to defeat the President-elect, Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), who polled 285,444 votes. But the National Assembly elections could not be decided that day.
However, in the governatorial election, the fortunes of the two leading parties were reversed as the APC candidate, Ahmed Aliyu, scored 453,661 to defeat Sa'ad Umar who had 404,632 votes.
Elections in Sokoto State have always been exciting especially since 2007 when then governor Attahiru Bafarawa fell out with his deputy, Aliyu Wamakko. The duo has since been in control of the politics of the state.
In the 2023 general elections, Mr Bafarawa backed PDP candidates, including his son who contested for deputy governor while Mr Wamakko, who is contesting to retain his senate seat, is the defacto leader of the APC.
Pundits believe that the elections were not concluded in the first instance because of the characters involved and their statuses.
Mr Wamakko is slugging it out with the current deputy governor, Manir Dan Iya (PDP) for the Sokoto central senate seat while Governor Aminu Tambuwal (PDP) is hoping to unseat incumbent Ibrahim Danbaba (APC) in the Sokoto south district, just as a former commissioner, Shuaibu Gwanda - Gobir (PDP) is in a tight battle with Ibrahim Lamido (APC) for the Sokoto east senatorial seat.
The elections were declared inconclusive due to Issues including but not limited to over voting and violence leading to disruption of voting at some polling units.
How they stand
Mr Wamakko (APC) is leading Mr Dan Iya (PDP) with 11,732 votes in Sokoto Central, having scored 114,866 votes to the 79,991 votes scored by the PDP candidate.
The zone has eight local government areas and there are 106,207 eligible voters in the 166 affected polling units in 46 registered areas.
In the Sokoto South contest, Mr Tambuwal (PDP) is leading with 7,859 votes, having scored 87,850 to Mr Danbaba's (APC) 79,991 votes. The zone has seven local government areas. There are 73,461 elegible voters in the 133 affected polling units where the rerun is taking place. And there are 44 registered areas.
PDP's Gwanda - Gobir is leading with 2,050 votes in the Sokoto East. He has 99,198 votes to the 97,147 scored by Mr Lamido of the APC. There are 48,075 affected eligible voters in the 90 polling units where the election is taking place. The zone has eight local government areas.
Factors
The outcomes of both the presidential and governorship elections are expected to have an impact on the supplementary elections. APC supporters, their party having won the latter election, will be hoping to repeat the feat by going out en masse to vote for their candidates in the Senate and House of Representatives rerun.
On the other hand, PDP loyalists may not be so excited about the election especially those who believe the incumbent governor, Mr Tambuwal did not help their preferred aspirants in the primaries. The PDP went into the election with a divided house. The fact that they don't have the governor's seat, some party supporters may decide not to vote or fight for the party.
The PDP has the upper hand in the figures so far. Both Messrs Tambuwal and Gwanda - Gobir lead in their zones while the deputy governor is behind APC's Mr Wamakko with about 11,000 votes. If the PDP can put more pressure on Mr Wamakko in the metropolitan local government areas, the margin may reduce, but the APC is strong in the central zone with the governor-elect being from the metropolis local government area.
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Bandits' activities have also resumed in the eastern part of the state and though the PDP has been using it against the APC government, insisting it is the federal government that has not been serious in the fight against terrorists, voters may refuse to come out to vote especially in areas like Goronyo, Rabah, Wurno, Isa and Sabon Birni where there are recent reported cases of such activities.
That may affect the chances of both candidates. The 48,075 eligible voters may not come out to vote in the affected areas.
Another factor that may decide the elections is that civil servants that were hitherto afraid of voting for APC before the governorship election may feel it is now safe to do so since the governor in waiting is of the APC.
Mr Tambuwal, who has lost in his bid to have his secretary government of the state, Sa'ad Umar, become his successor and failed at the national level now that Atiku lost to Mr Tinubu, will give all it takes to get the senate seat because it is now his only ticket to political relevance in the next four years.
