Most importantly, the proper use of the data for policy and decision-making must be the priority.
The past censuses have directly or indirectly contributed to Nigeria's underdevelopment. It is nearly impossible to plan adequately for a population you are not peoperly aware of in its various details, and while using estimates and projections may be a stopgap measure, this is not sustainable. When it holds, the result of the census must justify the means, and stakeholders must draw the line by understanding that development and nation-building supersede other interests.
Perhaps, the saying that when the purpose of a thing is not known, abuse is inevitable should be framed and hung on the walls of every institution, especially in government. Understanding the reason for undertaking the census exercise by the Nigeria Population Commission (NPC) is crucial because there is the potential risk of embarking on a wasteful venture without it. Will the now postponed population census build the level of trust that has been eroded between the government and citizens? The trust deficit is not farfetched. The release of different data points, implementation of policies and, indeed, government activities should, in the end, impact the well-being of citizens considerably, and two examples can be cited.
The INEC and NSIP Case Study
A school of thought may argue that the recently concluded general elections, with N305 billion budgeted for its execution whilst recording the lowest voter turnout since 1999, as well as the failure of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to fulfil its promise of leveraging technology for transparency, made the entire process a colossal waste. So, while winning the popular vote returned the incumbent party, its inability to garner the combined majority of all votes cast and the irregularities recorded have arguably formed a shadow of sorts on the legitimacy of the win. What use is an electoral process that leaves more room for numerous litigations questioning its conduct?
A few months ago, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released figures stating that 63% of persons in Nigeria (133 million people) are multidimensionally poor. The concept of the Multidimensional Index (MPI) is such that it interrogates the multiple deprivations causing poverty. Therefore, while 133 million Nigerians may not be extremely poor (persons living on less than $1.90 per day), the result shows the number of people who experience deprivations in more than one dimension under health, education, living standards, as well as work and shocks. One will imagine that the MPI will be a crucial input into the Federal Government's National Social Investment Programme (NSIP) if the aspiration to lift 100 million people out of poverty by 2030 is anything to go by. By reaching 15 million people, with nearly N1.5 trillion spent between 2016 and 2022, one wonders about the feasibility of the programme and basis on which its decisions were made. It also explains why data, especially demography data, is the bedrock of development planning.
Questions have been raised about the timing and conduct of the census, which have contributed to its second postponement. The initial assumption by some stakeholders no longer holds, that having it after the elections and before the inauguration of the new administration will insulate it from political interference. From all the contentions recorded in the previous exercises, how the NPC will navigate the murky waters remains to be seen.
Historical Contentious Population Census In Nigeria
Nigeria last had a national census 17 years ago, in 2006. There is no other way to say that the country is long overdue for a census exercise. The issue has always been the political will and, just like the 2023 general elections, if the process will be transparent and credible enough to be generally accepted. There is a decennial or ten-year cycle practice of conducting population counts globally. According to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), it should be at least once every ten years. After witnessing the first census of any part of Nigeria in 1866, the Lagos colony under the British colonial government also had counts in 1871, 1881 and 1901. The 1911 census involved a wider area (Southern Nigeria) due to the merger of the Lagos colony with the Southern Protectorate. Following the 1914 amalgamation, a Census Ordinance was enacted in 1914, and the 1921 census was held. The 1931 census was not comprehensive, and no census took place in 1941 due to the second world war, so the last pre-independence census was staggered and it held between 1951 and 1953.
The first post-independent Nigeria census was in 1962. The results were cancelled after controversy emerged about the inflation of figures in some regions. Potentially, this is where the trust deficit in Nigeria began to surface. A recount exercise was held in 1963. The governors of Eastern and Midwestern Nigeria rejected the results, went to the Supreme Court to contest it but lost, and the Federal Government accepted the results. The results of the 1973 census were not published, and the entire exercise was cancelled, even after announcing a figure of 79.76 million. The 1991 Census was executed after the NPC was formed in 1988, with Nigeria's population put at 88.5 million. The 2006 count gave a figure of 140 million and did not go without objections. Interestingly, President-elect Bola Tinubu, then the Lagos State governor, challenged the figure announced for the state. He based his rejection of the 9 million announced by relying on a parallel counting undertaken by the state government, which reported 17.5 million.
A Count For National Development
Questions have been raised about the timing and conduct of the census, which have contributed to its second postponement. The initial assumption by some stakeholders no longer holds, that having it after the elections and before the inauguration of the new administration will insulate it from political interference. From all the contentions recorded in the previous exercises, how the NPC will navigate the murky waters remains to be seen. Clem Agba, the minister of state for Budget and National Planning, in March, announced that N869 billion will be required for the census, including post-census activities up until 2025, and already N291.5 billion has been committed to the exercise by the Federal Government. Pre-census activities commenced since 2021, with the Enumeration Area Demarcation (EAD) and several pre-test fieldworks. Obviously, much resources have been sunk into the process, but how well has the NPC communicated the exercise widely? Like the fuel subsidy removal debacle, all eyes will be on the incoming administration, but is this best practice? As governance is a continuum and public institutions have their mandates defined, are we not seeing political interference already?
Most importantly, the proper use of the data for policy and decision-making must be the priority. How many schools, teachers, primary health centres, health care workers, etc., are needed in each local government? What should be done in adequately responding to climate events and disasters, such as flooding, that have displaced more people than conflicts in the last 13 years? How are Persons with Disabilities (PWDs) adequately accounted and catered for?
Demographic data is very important for national planning, and it is possible to conclude that previous controversial censuses have affected the proper implementation of government policies in Nigeria. Census data cannot be seen only as a parameter for 'resource-sharing', the usual narrative provided. Population data is critical for decision-making to drive sustainable and long-term development. It is the backbone of good governance. Therefore, if all goes right, this census may give some direction for crisis prevention - whether security, environmental or humanitarian - for the incoming governments at the national and sub-national levels. Nigeria is on track on only one out of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) - Goal 17, which is Partnerships for the Goals. Apart from the MPI referenced above, the 20 million out-of-school children data released by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO) and the 37% unemployment rate projected by the end of 2023 by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) is cause for concern.
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More importantly, the credibility of the census is as important as its conduct itself. While the use of technology, including geo-fencing, has been put forward as reasons to ensure the integrity of the process, from data collection to collation, to storage and then to usage, this perhaps sounds like a broken record already. A census process that is not only seen to be credible but without political interference and manipulations may be the first step to building back trust between government and citizens. Most importantly, the proper use of the data for policy and decision-making must be the priority. How many schools, teachers, primary health centres, health care workers, etc., are needed in each local government? What should be done in adequately responding to climate events and disasters, such as flooding, that have displaced more people than conflicts in the last 13 years? How are Persons with Disabilities (PWDs) adequately accounted and catered for?
The past censuses have directly or indirectly contributed to Nigeria's underdevelopment. It is nearly impossible to plan adequately for a population you are not peoperly aware of in its various details, and while using estimates and projections may be a stopgap measure, this is not sustainable. When it holds, the result of the census must justify the means, and stakeholders must draw the line by understanding that development and nation-building supersede other interests.
Adeolu Adekola, a Policy and Development Analyst working on accountability in governance, civic engagement and investigative journalism, is the Project Manager, Open Climate Reporting Initiative (OCRI) of the Centre for Investigative Journalism, London.
