For now, everything hangs in the balance as the behind-the-scene political scheming and intriguing horse trading continue
The race for the position of Senate President appears to be reaching a crescendo. Pockmarked by webs of intrigue, horse trading, claims and counter-claims, it has engagingly gripped the Nigerian political system on the eve of the transition to a new political dispensation.
While the ruling and triumphant All Progressives Congress (APC) has chosen its preferred candidates for both the Senate and House of Representatives leadership, it is not yet Uhuru for the party, amid staunch and swelling opposition from other factions in the fold.
There still seems to be no clear presumptive Senate President, especially as political party caucuses in the National Assembly seek to join the fray and rally their members-elect for a possible repeat of the 2011 and 2015 scenarios.
In this analysis, APC NewsOnline looks at the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and potential threats to the aspirations of the declared candidates for the position of Senate President of the 10th National Assembly.
GOODWILL AKPABIO
Strengths:
The former Governor of Akwa Ibom State is a former Minority Leader in the Senate as a then-member of the People's Democratic Party (PDP) before defecting to the APC in 2018 and subsequently emerging as Minister of Niger Delta Affairs.
One of Akpabio's selling points for the office of Senate President is hinged on the fact that he is a Christian, particularly against the backdrop of lingering reservations over the Tinubu/Shettima Muslim-Muslim ticket.
The Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket fielded by the APC at the 2023 general election had generated, and is still generating, controversy, so as expected in the necessary politics of delicate balancing, a Christian mounting the number three position will, no doubt, douse tension.
What's more, Akpabio is also from the South-South, a region that is seemingly marginalised in the scheme of things, since the ascendancy of the APC to power in 2015.
There is a great and growing clamor for greater participation of the zone and the contiguous Southeast in the next government especially as the APC has retained power with the shifting performance of the party there.
Weaknesses:
Akpabio has no doubt had a remarkable run since joining the APC in 2018, becoming a Minister and even gunning for the office of the country's President at the convention that produced Bola Ahmed Tinubu as the party's flag bearer.
But his running battle with the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), which some people suspected might have prompted him to join the ruling APC, remains a major baggage that has continued to haunt him. He has been on the radar of the EFCC for a long time for allegations dating back to his time as governor.
In 2015, he was arrested and an investigation began into the alleged theft of N108.1 billion of Akwa Ibom funds.
In 2020, Akpabio and top officials of the Interim Management Committee (IMC) of the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC) were invited to appear before the National Assembly for allegedly squandering N40 billion funds of the commission. The NDDC is a key parastatal under the Ministry of Niger Delta Affairs which was headed by Akpabio for three years. The allegation was however debunked by both Akpabio and the NDDC's IMC which claimed that N22 billion was spent on 'salaries, services and debts'.
There were also allegations of more N86 billion shady contract deals involving the senator-elect and a former Acting Managing Director of the NDDC, Mr Kemebradikumo Pondei plus others which they are denying.
Again, in March and April 2023, the EFCC twice asked Akpabio to turn himself in at the Commission's headquarters over corruption investigation against him. Akpabio was initially invited to appear in March but his lawyer, Mr Kalu in a letter to the EFCC dated 27 March, 2023 said his client would not be able to honour the invitation due to a scheduled medical appointment overseas. According to Kalu's letter, the former Minister of Niger Delta Affairs was suffering from pneumonia and cardiac arrhythmia (a disease that causes irregular heartbeat) and was advised to seek medical treatment abroad.
Recently, a civil rights advocacy group, Human Rights Writers Association of Nigeria, (HURIWA), said Akpabio has an oversized alleged corruption baggage and declared him unfit to be the next Senate President.
HURIWA, in a statement by its National Coordinator, Comrade Emmanuel Onwubiko, said APC should not act in any way that would portray it as endorsing graft.
The group added that Akpabio should be immediately probed just like the EFCC is already investigating the outgoing Zamfara State Governor, Mr Muhammed Bello Matawalle, over alleged N70billion fraud.
Akpabio comes from the South-South region, a region where APC tentacles are struggling to take root and consequently has relatively fewer APC lawmakers in both the Senate and House of Representatives.
Opportunities:
The APC also made a comparable significant showing in the South South, particularly in the presidential election, in which analysts had predicted a landslide for the Peter Obi-led resurgent Labour Party (L.P).
Not only did the APC win a Senatorial seat in Akwa Ibom, but it also won in Cross Rivers and Edo states and Akpabio, who was a Senate Minority Leader before crossing over to the APC, has political relationships and a network that transcends party lines.
And in the APC, he has continued to solidify his position, even winning the approval of the President-elect, culminating in his endorsement for the highly coveted office of Senate President.
Threats:
Akpabio faces challenges for this position from other juggernauts in the party. The likes of Orji Uzor Kalu, Abdulazeez Yari, Senator Mohammed Musa Sani, and Senator Osita Izunaso are also in the race.
These senators also have the networks, alliances and clout to tilt the applecart and sway the votes away from him.
While Kalu is the current Senate Chief Whip, Izunaso has been a powerful political actor in the nation's legislative space since the advent of the Fourth Republic, and Yari, referred to by admirers as the strong man of Zamfara politics, also has the network and war chest to prosecute his ambition.
ORJI UZOR KALU
Strengths:
The former Abia State Governor is also a force to reckon with in the APC. Since joining the party in 2016, he has been a visible face in the party from a region initially antagonistic to the APC. He went on to build strong relationships in the party, becoming a close ally of the outgoing Senate President, Ahmed Lawan.
Before the party's zoning formula was unveiled, Kalu's name was largely associated with the clamor for greater inclusion and representation of the Southeast in the business of governance.
Weaknesses:
While Orji Kalu has strong influence in the party, particularly in the legislature being the Chief Whip, like Akpabio he is bogged down by the weight of corruption cases and allegations.
Kalu was released from jail in 2020 by a Federal High Court in Lagos, months after a Federal High Court on 5 December, 2019, jailed him for 12 years.
He was convicted of N7.1billion fraud alongside a former Director of Finance in Abia State Government House, Jones Udeogu, in charge No: FHC/ABJ/CR/56/2007 between the Federal Republic of Nigeria v. Orji Uzor Kalu & 2 Ors on 5 December, 2020.
However, following the defendants' appeals against the judgment in which they argued that since the trial Judge, Justice Idris was already elevated to the Court of Appeal, he could not be granted a fiat to conclude the case as it was done in the case, the Supreme Court nullified their trial and conviction.
In nullifying their trial and conviction, the Supreme Court held that Justice Idris no longer had jurisdiction to try the case after being elevated to the Court of Appeal. Consequently, the court ordered that the case be re-assigned to another Judge for trial de novo.
The defendants (Kalu and his company, Slok Limited), filed applications before the Federal High Court, Lagos relying on the judgment of the Supreme Court for them to be released from the sentence and the conviction since the Supreme Court had held that the trial was a nullity. The applications were granted and Kalu was released from Kuje Correctional Centre, Abuja.
In line with the judgment, the case was later re-assigned to Justice I. E. Ekwo of the Federal High Court, Abuja. But the case was re-assigned to be tried in Abuja despite the Court of Appeal's earlier judgment that held that Lagos and not Abuja has jurisdiction to hear the case.
However, at the re-trial, Kalu, who is the 1st respondent in Suit No: FHC/ABJ/CS/73/2021 Federal Republic of Nigeria v. Orji Uzor Kalu & 2 Ors, filed an application before Justice I. E. Ekwo in which he sought, among others, an order of the court prohibiting the Federal Republic of Nigeria through the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission from prosecuting him again on the allegations in Charge No: FHC/ABJ/CR/56/2007 between the Federal Republic of Nigeria v. Orji Uzor Kalu & 2 Ors on the ground that he had earlier been tried, convicted and sentenced on the charge.
EFCC also filed a counter-affidavit and written address opposing the application. However, ruling on the suit, the court held that the applicant (EFCC) cannot re-try the respondents.
The court also held that the plea of autrefois acquit and autrefois convict and the principle of double jeopardy availed the 1st respondent (Orji Uzor Kalu) and that the re-trial of the 1st respondent would amount to the violation of the provisions of Section 36 (9) and (10) of Constitution of Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999, as amended, and Section 238 of the Administration of Criminal Justice Act, 2015.
Opportunities:
Kalu has been a prominent name in the nation's political firmament even before the return of democracy in 1999, being an influential actor in the aborted Third Republic and during the Obasanjo presidency when he served as Abia State Governor between 1999 and 2007. Before then he had served as a member of the House of Representatives from 1992 to 1993.
The insistence on a Christian from the South, and especially from the perceived marginalised Southeast, may play into his hands given his clout and sympathies in the National Assembly.
Threats:
While being a Christian from Southeast should ordinarily be a good sell in the light of a Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket amid the protest of marginalisation from some sections of the country, Kalu is contending against others with similar claim, the likes of Godswill Akpabio and Osita Izunaso, both of whom are Christians from the South-South and Southeast respectively with requisite political clouts and networks.
The endorsement of Akpabio by the party's hierarchy is also no surprise, as Kalu is considered not to have participated vigorously in the party's presidential election campaign against the threatening tides of the Labour Party in his native geopolitical zone.
ABDULAZEEZ YARI
Strengths:
Senator Yari is a former Governor of Zamfara State and is among those who were instrumental to the formation of the APC.
In 2015, he became the Chairman of Nigerian Governors' Forum. Yari has been a big player in APC even gunning for the party's Chairmanship position during the last special convention.
Weaknesses:
Yari is largely considered a controversial fellow within the APC, particularly with the disqualification of the party from governance in the Zamfara State in 2019 largely blamed on the crisis between him and Senator Kabiru Marafa, another strongman of the state politics.
Yari, like Akpabio and Kalu, is also not free from the radar of EFCC. In May last year, he was arrested at his Abuja residence in connection with the commission's investigation of the Accountant-General of the Federation, Ahmed Idris, for alleged N80 billion fraud.
He is also one of the key actors in the persistent crises rocking the APC in Zamfara State that even cost the party the governorship in 2019 and 2023.
Speaking recently, an APC chieftain, Dr Garus Gololo, warned the party against giving Yari the Senate presidency.
Gololo said: "l pray that this time, the party is quick, up and doing to prevent this type of person from infiltrating our ranks. He has shown what he is capable of doing, and we must not allow him to succeed at it."
Gololo further alleged that Yari's inordinate ambition is capable of causing a rift within the party, especially seeing that the party has chosen where to move as far as the senate presidency matter is concerned.
Opportunities:
Yari is from Zamfara State in the Northwest, a region that has been the traditional base of APC and has maintained significant electoral showings for the party.
Yari, who also was once the Chairman of Nigerian Governors' Forum, has a strong political network across board and with ploys and plots by the opposition to subvert the endorsement by the ruling party, Yari's connections and war chest may come in handy.
Speaking in that regard recently, Yari said: "The election has come, gone and the same zone (North-west) demonstrated what they are doing and took the lead in terms of producing votes for our President-elect and the party.
"Even though some people were thinking about how to subvert it, we have done our best despite the challenges.
"Now, we have a President-elect (Tinubu) from the South-West, we have the Vice-president-elect from the Northeast and the Northwest is waiting."
Threats:
Yari has found himself contending against an array of powerful contenders, such as a one-time Minority Leader, a one-time Chief whip, a long-time National Assembly power broker, and an influential senator from Niger State.
Yari still has forces in the party who are blaming him for his role in the 2019 fiasco and may see all these forces join the coalition against him.
Yari is from the North-west, a region considered to possess too much influence in APC, especially with the purported zoning of the Deputy Senate Presidency and Speakership by the party to the geo-political zone.
OSITA IZUNASO
Strengths:
Senator Osita Izunaso, like Akpabio and Kalu, is also a Christian. He is from the Southeast, a region fiercely agitating for inclusion in the government after a perceived long stretch of marginalisation.
Senator Izunaso also has the requisite experience and political dexterity to steer the affairs of the Senate. And unlike Akpabio, Kalu and Yari, he comes with a clean record, without any fraud or criminal case attached to his name. Beside he is an urbane and gentlemanly political chess player who diligently does quietly more without making noise. He may turn out to be the ultimate trump card of APC and the President-elect for the crucial post.This Imo West Senator-elect has paid his dues in APC as a core party man. He was strong and active in the merger committee that midwived the APC in 2013 and became the founding National Organising Secretary of the new party, a position he held for about five years during which he built a formidable political network.
Izunaso perhaps, has the best and most robust understanding of the National Assembly having served as an aide to both the presiding officers of the assembly before being elected into both the green and red chambers.
Again, the fact that his home State, Imo is one of the two APC-controlled states in the Southeast zone is a major advantage for him and the APC. This is an evident edge over Akpabio, Yari and Kalu whose states are under the grips of the opposition PDP and the Labour Party respectively.
Weaknesses:
He has not been in the federal legislature since 2011 when he was replaced as the Senator for Imo-West by Hope Uzodinma. he notably defeated the late juggernaut, Arthur Nzeribe in the 2007 senatorial contest for Imo-West (Orlu) District. He had previously served as a member of the House of Representatives. Unlike others, Senator Izunaso is not a money bag.
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Opportunities:
While on paper, the leading contenders for the Senate Presidency are no doubt Godswill Akpabio and Orji Uzor Kalu from the South-South and Southeast respectively, it will be costly gambit to dismiss Osita Izunaso with a wave of the hand. It is an irrefutable fact that both Akpabio and Kalu cannot be certain to scale the integrity test of the ruling party and all the other distinguished senators as well as the menacing court of public opinion. This is because antecedents are necessary and inevitable factors for consideration especially for an incoming administration pledging a new chapter anchored on the renewed hope mantra and trust.
Izunaso is also an ardent party man with a strong network and philosophy of people-oriented politics, a fresh face that the APC can comfortably fall back on for a breath of fresh air, purposefulness and integrity.
Threats:
Izunaso is contesting against big but controversial names that have been dominant in the nation's political and legislative landscape in the past four years. These include Akpabio and Kalu, with one being a one-time Minority Leader before becoming Minister of Niger Delta Affairs and the other being a one-time Chief Whip of the Senate, who are believed to have amassed so much along the way.
Yari is another powerful figure that has the strings and power tentacles to checkmate any contender's influence and ambition.
SENATOR SANI MUSA
Strengths:
He is a two-term Senator from the North- Central, a zone that is also accusing the APC of marginalising it in the purported zoning formula.
Weaknesses:
Like the President-elect and the Vice President-elect, Senator Musa is also a Muslim. His North Central zone has been subsumed by its recently too close alliance with the far North.
Opportunities:
The North-central seems to have been forgotten in the scheme of things and Sani Musa, who has enjoyed a good stay in the National Assembly as the current Chairman of the Senate Services Committee, has built a sizable influence. Last year, he vied for the position of party chairman before stepping down for the incumbent National Chairman of the party, Senator Abdullahi Adamu, in compliance with the party's directive.
Threats:
He seems the man with the slimmest chance in this clash of the titans, particularly with the Muslim-Muslim controversy and the clamour by the Southeast and even the South-South for greater representation in central government and party administration.
From the foregoing analysis, it is hard to place a bet on this or that contender. The situation is no doubt dicey. With the return of the President-elect to the country amid intense politicking, both overtly and covertly and the APC National Chairman, Senator Adamu hinting of a revisit of the party's declared zoning formula for the National Assembly leadership, anything can happen.
As the clock ticks towards the inauguration of the 10th Senate, Akpabio and Kalu's positions in the Senate Presidency race are increasingly becoming precarious as a result of the growing support for Senator Izunaso and even former Governor Yari. The Imo-West senator may just hold the ace being a Christian from the Southeast, the candidate without baggage and an unwavering loyal party man.
For now, everything hangs in the balance as the behind-the-scenes political scheming and intriguing horse trading continue a few days to the May 29 Inauguration Day and the take off of the 10th National Assembly that would follow.
The APC and the incoming administration are in the global eye, coming in on the plank of anti-corruption, accountability, and transparency, which will inevitably affect the ultimate choice of the new leadership of the National Assembly. This will inevitably affect the ultimate direction of the incoming President Bola Ahmed Tinubu government.
*Dr Tom Ohikere is CEO of APC NewsOnline.
