The Tinubu presidency has finally kicked off with the expected fanfare and promises.
The swearing-in was a simple and beautiful event while the inaugural speech did not disappoint. We saw elements of the Lagos boy from morning up until evening.
Same was the story across all states where elections held, the national and state assemblies. We are at that point where the real winners and losers are scheming to either establish their relevance or salvage their chances of relevance.
It is a good time to look at the famous PDP governors - G5, who refused to support their party's candidate, Atiku Abubakar, the party chairman who refused to step down for fairness as demanded by the governors, the subsequent loss of their party in the presidential election and who the biggest winners and losers are.
We start with the winners; Nyesom Wike and Seyi Makinde. Obviously, Nyesom Wike was not scheming for more than to see PDP's Atiku lose the presidential election, to have his anointed PDP successor win the Rivers governorship election, to see a southerner emerge as president and to be relevant in the victory of the new president. He got his calculations right with BAT and he has already started visiting Aso Rock, even taking James Ibori with him to see Mr President.
The biggest winner, however, must be Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo state, who was the only one among the G5 seeking reelection and needing to make the smartest decision as he had more to lose than anyone else.
The quartet of Okezie Ikpeazu (Abia), Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi (Enugu), Samuel Ortom (Benue), and Nyesom Wike (Rivers) had all completed their tenures and only wanted their preferred candidates to win, while Ortom, Ugwuanyi and Ikpeazu were aiming for the Senate.
Several people have commended Makinde's bravery for supporting Bola Tinubu but truthfully, the Oyo governor had no option for many reasons. The popularity of the APC candidate in Oyo state had suddenly become too much for the sitting governor to contend with; any campaign against Tinubu was political suicide at the time. Also, neither Atiku nor Peter Obi stood a chance in the hearts of Oyo people. Seyi knew that Oyo people always vote based on strong convictions and the tide was already in favour of Tinubu. He knew that LP's Peter Obi was the least accepted candidate in his state and he could not have supported the one who was destined to get just leftover votes. This would hurt his re-election.
The irony of this is that few years before the election, it would have been tough for any southwest governor to openly pitch their tent with Tinubu because the #endsars crisis had really battered his goodwill and he was the one Nigerians hated most for the huge support he gave Muhammed Buhari to become the president But Yoruba people only needed some of their trusted sons and daughters to take the Jagaban message to them at the grassroots for the narrative to take 180 degrees turn.
By January 2023, it was clear that only a Tinubu alliance could add real numbers to the governorship votes Makinde needed in Oyo state because a lots of work has been by the amalgamation of Tinubu support groups funded by some strong unrepentant disciples .Only Tinubu could stop an Atiku presidency that he needed to prevent.
Going by his internal battles with the PDP leadership and their bold faceoff with Atiku, we all suspected that Makinde would really need the Atiku ambition to fail. This was the only way his second term would not face crisis while other G5 members would be enjoying their retirement at home or in the Senate.
The Omituntun 2.0 strategists did a great job of leveraging the Tinubu momentum for victory. Makinde must be grateful to the drivers of the Tinubu campaigns in Oyo state for creating such a huge turnaround that suited his ambition so well. So kind was their campaign narrative that never did the Tinubu camp speak ill of their PDP governor. It was like a silent "you rub my back I rub yours" agreement. Governor Makinde played the card so well that he got a landslide victory.
The Tinubu campaign team in Oyo had vowed that they were not just aiming for a victory, but they wanted to win with a large margin. The 449,884 votes they got for Tinubu in Oyo state turned out to be the highest he got in southwest Nigeria that gave him victory. Of course, states like Kano and Lagos gave him more votes but not without the baggage of losing the states. Governor Makinde stepped out few weeks after this to reclaim his mandate with out any strong challenge. Everything ended well.
Among the losers are governors Ortom, Ugwuanyi and Ikpeazu who all lost their bid to win senatorial seats. The biggest loser, however, must be the PDP presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar. Looking at how tight the election results turned out, he must be biting himself for not aligning with the demand of the G5 for party chairman Iyorchia Ayu to step down. A PDP victory in Rivers, Benue, Oyo with better numbers in Abia and Enugu could have forced a rerun if unable to earn Atiku outright victory. So, after six attempts, Atiku remains a 'nearly man', practically damaging his own best chance ever.
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Lessons learned must come from both the biggest loser and the biggest winner. This may not be one of the best principles to guide our lives but for politicians joining alliances and inheriting enemies in politics, Makinde and Atiku have taught them to never lose sight of personal interest. While Atiku followed Ayu into defeat, Makinde followed Tinubu into victory. As we say in street parlance, follow who know road.
All said and done, how President Bola Ahmed Tinubu runs his government is what is now the most important for all citizens across the states. We can only hope that lessons have been learned from the past eight years of APC leadership and they would be useful for the sake of Nigeria.
*Olanipekun, a lawyer, writes from Abuja
