Although not delineated, Nigeria's transport sector, according to the NDC document, accounts for 21 per cent of GHG emissions within Nigeria's energy sector in 2018.
Even though it was excluded in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted by the Nigerian government to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Nigeria's aviation sector is thinking of ways to reduce its contribution to GreenHouse Gas (GHG) emissions.
Although not delineated, Nigeria's transport sector (including the aviation sector), according to the NDC document, accounts for 21 per cent of GHG emissions within Nigeria's energy sector in 2018.
Nigeria said it is committed to becoming a low-carbon economy as a means of promoting sustainable development as well as contributing to global efforts to reduce GHG emissions released into the atmosphere.
The NDCs speak about mitigation in road transport alone excluding air transport which according to the National Bureau of Statistics contributed 20 per cent in the first quarter of 2023 to GDP growth indicating the functionality of the sector.
The Director General of Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA), Musa Nuhu, at the second National Aviation Conference last month (May) said the sector was the second-fastest growing sector in the economy pre-covid.
Globally, the aviation sector, researchers say, contributes around four per cent to human-induced global warming, more than most countries do and an estimated 2.4 per cent of global annual CO2 emissions, most of it from commercial travel.
Aeroplanes emit around 100 times more CO2 per hour than a shared bus or train ride, and the emissions of global aviation are around 1 billion tons of CO2 per year -- more than the emissions of most countries, including Germany, a Mongabay report said.
The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) estimates that the number of air passengers will more than double in two decades, from 3.0 billion in 2012 to 6.4 billion in 2030. This implies that more air pollution will be recorded which accounts for an estimated 16,000 premature deaths per year.
Aside from carbon emissions, planes also contribute to global warming through the creation of water vapour, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, and soot. These non-carbon pollutants contribute twice as much to global warming as the carbon produced by aircraft.
What industry regulators are saying
At the National Aviation Conference, Mr Nuhu in his presentation on aviation sustainability said his agency "seeks solutions to improve the societal and environmental impacts of air transportation, reducing the sector's contribution to climate change through new practices and innovation while increasing the sector's contribution to the national economy."
He said the regulatory body is committed to preserving nature and demonstrating environmental leadership among its peers in the region to ensure that Nigeria achieves the ambitious goal of a 50 per cent reduction in net carbon emissions by 2060 through collaboration with all industry stakeholders.
One of the key ways it plans to do this is through the Fly2green initiative which is in the final stage of launching.
According to Mr Nuhu, the initiative is the first sustainable aviation Eco-Label programme in Africa designed to generate innovative climate finance, climate advocacy and climbing resilience projects to meet the NDCs target.
He added that Nigeria is working towards developing conversations around the use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) which for him is the future of aviation.
The Nigerian Airspace Management Agency (NAMA) Director General, Matthew Pwajok at the same conference noted that given the responsibilities of his agency, "we can play a very significant role in reducing flight time, fuel consumption and carbon emission which is environmental sustainability."
He added that collaboration is needed to achieve sustainability of all kinds within the sector.
What is the world doing?
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has developed Net Zero roadmaps that provide step-by-step detailing of critical actions for aviation to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. These roadmaps address aircraft technology, energy infrastructure, operations, finance, and policy.
"The roadmaps are a call to action for all aviation stakeholders to deliver the tools needed to make this fundamental transformation of aviation a success with policies and products fit for a net-zero world," Willie Walsh, IATA's director general, said.
The sector has made some progress on energy infrastructure with the development of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), a biofuel used to power aircraft with similar properties to conventional jet fuel but with a smaller carbon footprint.
SAF reduces carbon emissions by up to 80 per cent, according to IATA. It can be produced from several sources (feedstock) including waste oil and fats, green and municipal waste and non-food crops. It can also be produced synthetically via a process that captures carbon directly from the air.
"It is 'sustainable' because the raw feedstock does not compete with food crops or water supplies, or is responsible for forest degradation. Whereas fossil fuels add to the overall level of CO2 by emitting carbon that had been previously locked away, SAF recycles the CO2 which has been absorbed by the biomass used in the feedstock during its life," IATA said.
One question asked by members of the industry is, when will sufficient SAF be available to all parts of the world?
As of 2021, SAF use was at less than 0.1per cent. To increase its usage to around 10 per cent by 2030 in line with the Net Zero Scenario, investment in production capacity and new policies such as fuel taxes, low-carbon fuel standards and mandatory blending is required, an International Energy Agency report states.
Producers have keyed into SAF production and some have signed agreements with airlines to begin supply. However, supply remains scarce and highly concentrated among a few producers.
If producers start producing SAF, the output capacity could exceed 2.5 billion gallons by 2026, according to BloombergNEF. Yet, this would only be a fraction of the around 100 billion gallons aircraft around the world use every year, or at least they used to before the pandemic.
What may be an alternative while airlines await large-scale availability of SAF, is what France did in May. It formally banned domestic flights on short routes that can be covered by train in less than two-and-a-half hours in a move aimed at reducing airline emissions.
Can Nigeria adopt the same? The simple answer is no as there are many factors inhibiting such legislation including inadequate transport networks and insecurity.
Experts speak
The Executive Director Centre for Journalism Innovation and Development (CJID) and energy expert, Tobi Oluwatola, noted that there are several challenges confronting the sector that may impede decarbonising the sector.
"It is difficult to replace that," he said, referring to jet fuel which perhaps accounts for the bulk of emissions from the sector.
"It is hard to make aviation electric because batteries are too heavy and the plane will not take off; and hydrogen, which is also being considered, is too light," Mr Oluwatola continued.
He noted that what many in the sector do is to cut down on how often they fly.
Although biofuels like SAF are still quite expensive, Mr Oluwatola believes there is a future, albeit distant, where these fuels will be more available and affordable.
In the case of Nigeria, he noted that the country often follows the lead of other countries that have the technology and know-how.
"The trajectory of decarbonising Nigeria's aviation sector will have to depend on what Boeing and others end up doing with decarbonising their fleets," he said.
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He also noted that Nigeria's Energy Transition Plan (ETP) does not state how the aviation sector will decarbonise like it did with road transport for example.
Peter Dia of the Aviation Fuel Marketers Association of Nigeria (AFMAN) noted that the shift to SAF will be expensive. This he said may lead to an increase in fare tickets thereby reducing patronage, and reducing the amount of carbon emitted by aircraft.
"The current production of SAF is low. Last year, there were only 300 million litres while we are consuming over 300 billion litres of jet fuel," he said, adding that the SAF does not make up for one per cent of what the industry needs.
The use of SAF though at its pilot stage in different parts of the world aims to tip at 30 billion litres by 2030, "with the right supporting policies", IATA said in a report last year. A production capacity of 450 billion litres annually in 2050 is required for the industry to meet its goal.
Speaking about the ideas of the regulatory agencies, Mr Dia agrees about the feasibility of the initiatives. He, however, questioned the political will and sustainability.
"If SAF is available today, the current infrastructure we have on the ground for handling jet fuel will not change. The marketers are ready to handle it if and when available," he added.
Also, Mr Dia fears that moving to SAF may affect food security considering the mode of production. However, the US Department of Energy says "By growing biomass crops for SAF production, American farmers can earn more money during off seasons by providing feedstocks to this new market, while also securing benefits for their farms like reducing nutrient losses and improving soil quality."
This report is produced in fulfilment of the UNESCO & CIJ London Climate Change in News Media project facilitated by the Centre for Journalism Innovation and Development.
