Following the lifting of the ban on public campaigns on June 14, 2023, by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in Kogi State, the political atmosphere in the state is now characterised by anxiety, horse-trading and scheming.
Being an off-season election, many Nigerians are watching with enthusiasm the unfolding events in the state as political actors have initiated various strategies to outdo one another.
It is imperative to state that INEC will equally conduct off-season elections in Bayelsa and Imo states, also in November.
In Kogi, politicking is gaining traction as factors such as religion, ethnicity, competence, agitation for power shift to Kogi East, among others, are shaping the race.
Intrigues
Gov Bello whose tenure elapses in January, 2024, anointed a former Auditor General for Local Government, Usman Ododo, as his preferred candidate among the many contenders that sprang up for the All Progressives Congress (APC) ticket.
Eventually, Ododo emerged the APC candidate at the primary election which was conducted via direct mode in the 239 wards of the 21 LGAs of the state.
Ododo polled 78,704 votes to defeat the six other contestants.
Announcing the outcome of the primary at the state secretariat of the APC, the Secretary of the National APC Governorship Primary Committee, Patrick Obahiagbon, announced 93,729 as the total number of registered voters but that 83,419 were accredited.
He said Shaibu Audu scored 763 votes; a former Minister of State, Stephen Ochen, polled 552; a former Executive Director of the Rural Electrification Agency, Sanusi Ohiare, got 424, while Senator Smart Adeyemi got 311.
Before then, Gov Bello on April 28, presented Ododo to then President Muhammadu Buhari at the Aso Rock in Abuja where he sought the president's support.
Before Ododo's emergence, the Deputy Governor, Edward Onoja, and the Chief of Staff to Governor Bello, Mohammed Asuku, withdrew from the race.
One of the aggrieved aspirants, Senator Adeyemi, who was featured on Channels' Politics Today, said, "The guy (Ododo) who was purported to have won this election is a cousin of Governor Yahaya Bello."
Another aggrieved aspirant, Abubakar Achimugu, asked a Federal High Court in Abuja to disqualify Ododo, claiming that Ododo's failure to resign his appointment with the Kogi State Government 30 days before the primary made him ineligible for the November 11, governorship poll.
But Ododo has asked the court to dismiss the suit seeking his disqualification with the case adjourned to July 18.
Agitation for power shift to Eastern zone hots up
Meanwhile, agitation for power shift to Kogi East has intensified, with stakeholders in the zone picking the candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Alhaji Murtala Ajaka, as their candidate.
Ajaka, popularly called Muri, will slug it out with Ododo, who is from Kogi Central, and the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Senator Dino Melaye, from Kogi West, among others.
Kogi East had constituted a committee led by the Chairman of the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), Gabriel Aduku, to X-ray the candidates of the various political parties in the zone and come up with one that would defeat Ododo.
Daily Trust reports that Kogi East has the highest number of LGAs (nine), voting population, as well as the highest number of candidates in the race.
The zone is known for its far-reaching decisions in elections because of its voting strength which it has demonstrated over the years.
Ajaka was unveiled at an event in Abuja, attended by some candidates of various political parties from the Igala-speaking axis (Kogi East) who stepped down for him to slug it out with Ododo who is from the Ebira ethnic extraction.
Unveiling Ajaka, Aduku appealed to the other contestants and their supporters to work for his victory.
Candidates of other parties who then stepped down for Ajaka from Kogi East are Arc Isah Dauda (APM), Onaji Sunday Frank (APP), Dr Elukpo Julius (ADP) and Dr Abdullahi Bayawo (PRP).
But aggrieved candidates of the Labour Party (LP), Okeme Adejo; All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), Idoko Ilonah; and the Young Progressives Party (YPP), Sam Omale, who are also from the zone, were absent.
Daily Trust gathered that talks are ongoing with several strategies being adopted to bring the aggrieved candidates on board to ensure victory for the zone.
Ethnicity, others shaping race
Daily Trust reports that apart from the issue of intense agitation for power shift to Kogi East, or West, religion and ethnic sentiments are equally beclouding the race.
A former Chairman of the Inter-Party Advisory Council (IPAC), Chief Peter Ameh, who is from the state, told Daily Trust in a telephone chat yesterday that apart from the issue of ethnicity or tribe, competence and other factors would play key roles in the election.
Chief Ameh, a former National Chairman of the de-registered Progressive Peoples Alliance (PPA), said, "The issue is not just about tribe, but it's unfortunate that this is happening. Democracy in essence is the process by which people elect those who govern them transparently and in fairness without any kind of impediment either by thuggery, ballot box snatching, ballot box stuffing or others.
"Unfortunately, this is what Kogi State has been known for over a period of time, especially the current dispensation. The basic truth about democracy is that the majority rule and the minority have their public opinion; but it's about the majority.
"Fortunately or unfortunately, the Igala dominate Kogi East, which has nine LGAs, and its voting population also is the majority. But none of the three regions can make itself governor without the cooperation of one of the other two, either Kogi Central or Kogi West.
"You can see those who are contesting from the Igala side have chosen their running mates from the other zones. The man contesting on the platform of the APC from Kogi Central has chosen his running mate from the Igala side. So, you can see it's all about bargaining power.
"The governor has been in power close to eight years now and he wants to produce a successor from his zone. He will put his scorecard on the table; what he has done for Kogi in the last seven and half years. The scorecard will determine the fate of his candidate.
"The factors that are militating against his choice of candidate are deliberate marginalisation and deliberate attempt to forcefully impose, because without negotiation, democracy cannot work. So, there are agitations and stiffness in accepting those track ups.
"The election has gone beyond parties, it is about the capacity of the person and acceptability of the person. There are a lot of interwoven factors that would determine the outcome of this election.
"It is not going to be like in the past. It is going to be a very serious campaign driven by a lot of other factors like tribe and ethnicity. There must be competence. The scorecard of those who are in government already also matters. At the end of the day, negotiations, give and take, will be the major standing point in this process."
Bello, Ododo intensify strategies
Meanwhile, sources close to Gov Bello have confirmed that the governor is leaving no stone unturned to ensure his anointed candidate succeeds him.
It was gathered that the governor and Ododo are meeting with key stakeholders across the three senatorial zones to make them see reasons to retain the APC amid stiff contest.
Daily Trust learnt that though campaigns have not reached their peak, various actors are also positioning themselves to pick from what the governor brings to the table, especially because of his incumbency factor with enormous resources to command things.
It was further learnt that some APC key players are galvanising support for Ododo to deliver him in the election so that the governor will not be put to shame.
The Commissioner for Information and Communication, Hon Kingsley Fanwo, expressed optimism that the APC would win the November poll despite the antics of the opposition.
Speaking with newsmen a few days ago, Fanwo said, "Our candidate, Alhaji Usman Ahmed Ododo, has met virtually all key stakeholders in Kogi State. He is still meeting more people to consult with them on the way to consolidate on the legacies of Alhaji Yahaya Bello."
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Fear of violence spreads
Meanwhile, there are fears that the election will be marred by violence and other irregularities.
A politician in the state who spoke with Daily Trust yesterday said, "Kogi elections have been driven by violence, even in LG elections. In the last LG polls, there were gunshots. Kogi cannot do without violence. Even the House of Representatives elections that just passed, there was violence.
"So, Kogi's electoral process has to be reformed. The Civil Society Organisations and security agencies must come in. We must call a spade a spade.
"As we speak, some hotels are being burnt down in the state, people are scared of their lives because violence will be an issue. I urged security agencies to stem the tide so that Kogi people can exercise their franchise on election day.
Recall that the Kogi State Government recently claimed that the convoy of Gov Bello was attacked by the supporters of Ajaka.
In a statement, Fanwo said Bello escaped unscathed, but claimed that some of the aides suffered injuries.
But Ajaja who briefed newsmen dispelled the claim, arguing that the attack was allegedly masterminded and supervised by a top politician who allegedly opened fire on him and his convoy to kill them.
He said the incident took place in Koton Karfe on his way back from the palace of one of the traditional rulers where he went to intimate him of his ambition to be the next governor of the state.
Daily Trust reports that Ajaka was a member of the APC but dumped it for the SDP when it was clear that he won't get the party's ticket to run.
Sources in the state say the electorate, both in the towns and the rural areas, are worried that the election will be characterised by violence as 18 political parties would slug it out.
