Washington, DC — What does it look like when 100 people from 40 nations are invited to discuss the future of the African continent? United Nations-Lite? Staged interactions? VIP Green Rooms where mingling is a tiered affair, regulated by the color of your badge, and the predictable headliners, the Honorables, Excellencies, and the notables—all detached from the toils of the everyday while they deliberate on the future of millions.
Well, think again.
For five days in May, the pan Africa non-partisan research institution Afrobarometer held a planning meeting in preparation for the tenth iteration of its surveys in up to 40 countries to measure the opinions of the African people on the state of their lives, the performance of their governments, and their hopes for the future.
As a member of the volunteer international advisory Board, I was one of the 100 participants at the gathering in Big Ada, 100 kilometers east of the capital Accra on the banks of the Volta River, a waterway which flows from the highlands of Burkina Faso emptying into the Gulf of Guinea.
The organization was founded 25 years ago, at a time when dictators and warlords reigned across Africa. Afrobarometer was built on the premise that the voices of Africans should be included in the emerging democratic dispensation at the time - the same historical awakening that fueled the collapse of communism in Eastern Europe and the fall of the Soviet Union.
Today, Afrobarometer has emerged as the gold standard for independent opinion polls in Africa having conducted over 350,000 interviews in 41 countries.
Tracking the pulse of African nations is serious business on a continent of 1.3 billion, where by 2050, one in four persons will be from Africa, with 70 percent being youth, and where a majority feel that the quality of governance is declining.
These trends run parallel with the potential of youthful, plugged-in, and entrepreneurial population which if unleashed, could drive global growth. They are hedged, by a continental free trade agreement, that if implemented as intended, could lift 50 million out of extreme poverty, and further, by the potential of a critical mineral surplus that could hold the key to Africa's industrialization, to the planet's green energy transition, and to U.S. access to a supply chain now almost entirely owned by China.
Here's what went on in Big Ada and what policy makers in Washington, D.C. can take away as they seek to deliver on the many U.S. commitments made at President Biden's historic Africa Leaders' Summit in December 2022, and in advance of an anticipated visit of the U.S. president to Africa later this year.
Sharing walkways with elegant peacocks, territorial ducks, donkeys, and the occasional stallion, I watched as Afrobarometer staff members fiercely debated the questions that would go into the field for Round 10, arguing over the inclusion (or omission) of single word which could weight towards a preferred answer, distorting the quality of the data.
Topics covered included women's reproductive health, Africa's free trade agenda, the quality of public education, and the citizens' belief in democracy weighed against their faith in the democratic institutions.
There was no hierarchy and protocols were set aside. Former presidents and prime ministers from the International Advisory Board dispersed into survey modules alongside Afrobarometer's' network partners, many of whom had been with the organizations since its first survey went into the field.
These included the Center for Democratic Development in Ghana, the Institute for Democracy at the University of Cape Town, and the Institute for Development Studies at the University of Kenya. The conversations were simultaneously translated in English, French and Portuguese.
Afrobarometer's data is regularly cited by media and academic institutions and supported by a growing list of donors including the U.S. Agency for International Development, the European Union, and the Japan International Cooperation Agency. According to the United Nations it is an indispensable force for effective African research.
But while elevation of scholarship is laudatory, the power to improve lives comes when the data goes pedestrian, when it is cited, amplified, personalized, dramatized, and commercialized by those capable of driving change—those within the system; and those on the outside.
And that's where Afrobarometer is going, under the leadership of Joseph Asunka who took over its leadership from Prof. E. Gyimah Boadi, one of three founders of the organization. Gyimah-Boadi is credited with helping to make African voices heard. Now Asunka is on a mission to make sure that people listen.
For Afrobarometer that means looking at creative partnerships, whether that's with media houses like The Continent, designed to be read and shared on WhatsApp, the most prevalent form of social media in Africa; or exploring alliances with businesses and their representative organizations and continental institutions like the African Union.
Afrobarometer's transformation is evident in its most recent (2022) annual review which underscores the connectivity between the data and incremental behavioral change. Examples include a political cartoonist satirically illustrating the quantitative distrust in the police force, which then goes viral and forces a nation-wide reckoning, and a Corruption Commissioner heralding improvements in perceptions of control of corruption to justify continued vigilance.
From the banks of the Volta River to the shores of the Potomac in Washington,DC, where in early June, three senior officials from the Biden Administration - Molly Phee, Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Judd Devermont, Senior Director for Africa, the National Security Council, and Ambassador Johnnie Carson, Special Presidential Representative for the U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit Implementation - reported on progress since the U.S. Africa Leaders Summit.
The press briefing tallied up the Biden Cabinet members who have since visited the continent, scored the $16.2 billion in private sector-led transactions closed, and highlighted new initiatives including on digital transformation, and women empowerment - all adding up to a focus on Africa not seen in decades by a U.S. administration. According to Phee, the Biden Administration has made good on its promise "to elevate African voices" in the global conversation citing support for an African permanent seat at the U.N. Security Council, and for the African Union to be part of the G20.
While celebrating this commitment, it would behoove Phee and her colleagues to dig deeper into the Afrobarometer data and ask which African voices are being elevated? Do they have the legitimacy to speak on behalf of their people?
According to Afrobarometer, many Africans believe that democracy is on the decline and that elections no longer deliver the leaders their country deserves. Nigeria's March 2023 elections, for example, had the lowest vote turn out since its return to civilian rule - 23 percent. What does society do when voting no longer provides a legitimate outlet for grievance and change?
And further, as the administration puts in place a policy on critical mineral supply, it is important to digest African opinions on the complexity of perceptions of China in Africa, where Chinese investment is welcome given the insatiable need for infrastructure but runs second to the United States as a preferred development model. Positive views about China do not seem to dim support for democracy. For Africans it is not a binary choice.
In the end, Afrobarometer's data is key to unlocking the sustainability, or the futility, of U.S. engagement on the continent. And as we have learned from their 25-year journey, it's not only about ensuring that Africa's voices are heard, but also about being prepared to listen.
K. Riva Levinson is president and CEO of KRL International LLC, a D.C.-based consultancy that works in the world's emerging markets, award-winning author of "Choosing the Hero: My Improbable Journey and the Rise of Africa's First Woman President. You can follow her on Twitter @rivalevinson
