Wagner's African adventurism was neatly summed up when Russian TV, set loose to insult Yevgeny Prigozhin in the wake of the failed putsch, labelled him the 'wannabe Robin Hood west who was robbing the hood'. The leader who stands to gain most if Wagner's African empire is weakened is Rwanda's strongman, President Paul Kagame.

The news from Bangui is that hundreds of Wagners have left during the past couple of weeks, presumably shipped back to Russia. This would indicate that Russia needs every experienced fighter it can deploy to keep the dam from breaking in Ukraine.

It might also explain why Prigozhin is walking around in Moscow, even taking his commanders to meet with Vladimir Putin, after being branded a traitor - and has not fallen out of a window yet.

As the fate of the mercenary entrepreneur continues to baffle Kremlin watchers, the leader who stands to gain most if Wagner's African empire is weakened is Rwanda's strongman, President Paul Kagame.

Wagner's critical selling point in those places where Jihadists have launched brutal insurgencies is that they are prepared to go where others fear to tread - especially since the decline of French military power on the continent.

But Rwanda has shown greater military professionalism and success in some of the worst conflict zones.

Duplicate business models?

And yet the business models of Rwanda and Wagner are not that dissimilar: both are developing commercial empires off their military foothold.

A report last week from the International Crisis Group on the Central African...