Cape Town — Rwanda's growing influence in the Central African Republic (CAR) - involving military, diplomatic and economic interventions - is coming under increased scrutiny as Bangui's reliance on the support of Russian mercenaries leads to a freezing of foreign donor support for President Faustin-Archange Touadéra's administration.
Rwanda's support for Touadéra is examined in a new report from the Brussels-based think-tank, the International Crisis Group (ICG). The publication of the report, published on July 7, highlights the fact that both Rwanda and the Moscow-allied Wagner group are providing troops to Touadéra at the same time as exploiting the country economically.
The report points to a number of dangers that Rwanda's intervention raises for the CAR. Notable among them:
- Rwanda - whose government under President Paul Kagame is already looked upon favourably by Western powers - could be pulled into "the tussle for influence" between the West and Russia;
- There is potential for clashes between Wagner troops and Rwanda's forces. Although some Wagner troops have left the CAR since the group's recent abortive rebellion in Russia, Bangui claims this is simply part of a "rotation" of units, and the ICG reports that there is already tension between Rwanda and Wagner; and
- Rwanda's economic interests in the CAR, backed by the presence of Rwandan troops, could provoke a violent response from the people of the CAR.
The ICG records that Rwanda:
-- Is the biggest contributor of peacekeepers to the United Nations mission in the CAR, which included more than 2,000 Rwandan soldiers and police officers by 2022;
-- Has sent another contingent of nearly 1,000 troops under a bilateral agreement with Bangui;
-- Has signed economic agreements with Bangui, under which more than 100 Rwandan firms are registered in the CAR;
-- Has been closely involved with Angola in attempts to broker peace between Touadéra's administration and CAR rebels opposing him; and
-- Supports security sector reform and is helping to strengthen state institutions in the CAR.
Unlike human rights group reports on the Kagame administration, the Crisis Group report does not condemn Rwanda's activities in the Central African Republic. "For the most part," it says, "Rwandan soldiers in CAR, whether blue helmets [UN peacekeepers] or bilaterally deployed troops, have a good reputation with the Central African authorities and population."
While some serious incidents have tarnished their image, they "are few in number compared to those involving other UN forces operating in CAR and to the grave human rights violations perpetrated by Wagner paramilitaries, both of which have included sexual exploitation and abuse."
As a result, Kigali's interventions - which "tend to perform functions closer to counter-insurgency than traditional peacekeeping" - have boosted the country's reputation "as a credible African alternative to multilateral operations, which have often been ineffective."
This enables Rwanda to "burnish its image as a guarantor of stability, under the banner of 'African solutions to African problems', a vision close to... President... Kagame's heart that Western capitals often also endorse as an alternative to large outside peacekeeping missions..." says the ICG report.
Young political scientist Dr. Anslem Wongibeh Adunimay from Cameroon is a research fellow at both the University of Johannesburg and at Accord, a Durban, South Africa-based civil society organisation working to bring creative African solutions to the challenges posed by conflict. His work on mediation and leadership is widely published in international journals and book chapters, and he helped developed the concept for the First Biennale of Peace and Security in Central Africa in 2022.
Dr. Adunimay's research challenges the view that most African conflicts arise from problematic colonial boundaries. Building sustainable peace, he says, must address local root causes of conflict. In Africa's Great Lakes region, for example, he says that solutions must address the structural problems and " adopt a broad based holistic approach".
The release of the ICG report comes only weeks after the release of a United Nations report on Rwanda's support of the M23 rebel group in the eastern DR Congo. Refuting denials from Kigali, a "Group of Experts" appointed by the UN Security Council said there is evidence of direct interventions by Rwandan troops on Congolese territory, either reinforcing M23 combatants or fighting the DR Congo's army and local armed groups. The UN report generated sharp condemnation of Kigali's role by the United States, the European Union (EU) and individual EU member states such as France.
In the case of continuing conflict in eastern DRC, which has led to the deaths of over five million people, Dr. Adumiday argues that the 1994 Rwandan genocide and the fear that perpetrators who fled across the border into DRC might return must be considered as part of the context. Their periodic incursions into Rwanda reinforce public fears and underpin the justifications of Rwandan authorities. The conflict has become more difficult to resolve, he says: "There are approximately 120 militias or armed groups that actively operate in the eastern provinces, many of whom are systematically involved in committing widespread violations and abuses that amount to atrocity crimes."
The Crisis Group report notes that, just as the relative success of Rwandan troops in combatting the Cabo Delgado insurgency in Mozambique has drawn praise, their efforts in the CAR "have earned [Rwanda] considerable respect". It adds: "These interventions also arm Kigali with arguments to counter growing anger at its backing for the M23 rebellion..."
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Citing tensions over President Touadéra's efforts to run for a third term in office, as well as the freezing of aid to his government over its links to Wagner, the ICG says that "in these circumstances, an expanded partnership with Rwanda looks like a way for CAR authorities to mitigate the risk of a full-blown crisis."
But warning of public discontent over Rwanda's role, it says "the country has a long history of popular revolt against the predatory practices of foreign powers operating together with national authorities."
Summarising the recommendations with which the Crisis Group customarily ends its reports, it says that to reduce the potential for intensified conflict in the Central African Republic:
- Rwandan investors should help build the CAR's formal economy and interact with local authorities and rural communities;
- Bangui and Kigali should end the secrecy around their collaboration and publish the contents of bilateral agreements to the CAR public; and
- Rwanda should link military support for the CAR to security reforms, and join Touadéra in reviving a peace process with CAR rebel groups.
Dr. Adunimay says that conflicts overlap and create regional instability: " Cameroon is already menaced by insurgents from the south as a result of the instability in the Central African Republic, Boko Haram, and a fragile Chad from the north." He calls for African peace keeping bodies, such as those of the African Union and regional United Nations forces, to receive greater international assistance.
