On Tuesday, October 10, Liberians will go to the polls to elect their next president, the fourth since the end of the civil war. The 2023 presidential and legislative elections are among the most crowded, anxiety-producing, and consequential in Liberia's 176-year history.
This article culminates six weeks of reading and conversations with journalists, political strategists, pundits, and average voters about the candidates and the presidential election process. However, I am not making a prediction or forecast but offering analyses based on the facts that came from the activities mentioned.
Therefore, I will limit my analyses to four out of the 20 presidential candidates:
· Former vice president Joseph Boakai
· Businessman Alexander Cummings
· Human rights lawyer Tiawon Gongloe
· President George Weah
A candidate must win at least 50 percent plus one of the votes cast to win. If no party reaches that threshold, the two parties with the most votes in the first round proceed to a run-off election won by a simple majority.
The incumbent, President George Weah, looks to be punished at the polls for rampant corruption, gross incompetence, extra-judicial killings, and a lousy economy. His Coalition for Democratic Change (CDC) party will face formidable hurdles in extending its hold on power beyond one term.
The CDC is enjoying the apparent advantages of being a governing party. Reinforced by state resources, and tribal loyalties, Weah will face a tough fight despite vociferous pushback from a disjointed opposition. The CDC has been boosted by the changing composition of the electorate over the last decade, most notably the increase in the youth population explosion. Though, they are spread throughout the political landscape.
The main opposition Unity Party (UP) seems the clear favorite of the over-65 age cohort, many of whom were active or worked in government during the dictatorship of Samuel Doe. Its standard bearer, former vice president Joseph Boakai is viewed as experienced and wise, with a temperament that fits the job. While his age offers stability to the older generation and political elites, it is a turnoff to the 'lost generation' of Liberians, many of whom came of age during the civil war and are now yearning for generational change.
The UP is poised to dominate the northern alliance - Lofa, Nimba, and Bong counties. The party has allied with former warlord-turned-Senator and US-sanctioned Prince Johnson and his Movement for Democracy and Reconstruction party, who promises to deliver populous Nimba. Still, it is becoming worrisome that Senator Johnson is a drag on the UP ticket due to his excesses during the war.
However, the so-called western cluster counties - Bomi, Cape Mount, and Gbarpolu will go to the UP spheres of influence. But, Margibi's votes might be shared between Boakai, Cummings, Gongloe, and Weah.
The Collaborating Political Parties (CPP), an alliance of two opposition political parties, the Alternative National Congress, and the Liberty Party, will have to work harder to get to the second round. The CPP might reap high voting numbers in Rivercess and Grand Bassa counties.
Many pundits believe the CPP candidate, Alexander Cummings, former Coca-Cola executive and war and economic crime court advocate, cannot win. It is because people cannot imagine it happening. He has not 'paid his dues' as the other candidates have, which some see as good because he has not worked for any previous government before and is not a 'legacy' politician who is tainted by corruption.
But he may need a miracle to secure a spot in the coveted second round. He has a loyal caravan of young professional women supporting him because they "believe in his ability to improve the economy and create jobs," so they gave him the moniker "Fixer 1," plastered on their social media pages. Many voters love Cummings and see him as the only candidate with the international experience and connections to lure top-flight investors to Liberia. Still, he has a likeability deficit that could be improved to overcome. So, Cummings must lead a robust ground game to knock out Boakai or Weah in the first round to have a chance, but some voters need to be humbler about casting their vote for him.
Boakai's UP must taper its over-confidence, or some may say arrogance. It is understandable why many of his supporters cannot stomach the thought of a Weah second-term presidency, and they believe the UP is the only bulwark against an incompetent Weah being reelected. Many others are operating under a twisted assumption that Boakai will vacate the presidency mid-way into his first 6-year term. Still, a premature victory is not helpful.
President Weah still garners a cult-like following because of football nostalgia, but many voters believe he is unfit to govern. So, an outright CDC victory is unlikely; therefore, a palpable fear looms over the country that Weah and his CDC will cheat, which will be a grave mistake that will unquestionably plunge the country into chaos and lead to unrest.
However, I must warn you that there may be a "social desirability bias" going on as well - the idea that voters will tell anyone asking whatever reason they think will reflect positively upon them. Many people won't publicly admit they are voting for Weah.
A Weah victory may be unimaginable to many, but it is not impossible. The outcome of this extraordinary election will not be based on crowd sizes and social media chatters but on the so-called "silent voters."
While the CDC maintains a high enthusiasm level in many ethnic enclaves in metropolitan Monrovia, at the same time, making inroads in large population centers in the southeast - Barclayville, Greenville, Zwedru, and Harper - Cummings may have the edge. Weah is undoubtedly on his knees, begging for votes in River Gee, Grand Gedeh, Sinoe, Maryland, and Grand Kru counties. Montserrado is seen as the 'elephant meat,' and all parties will reap some spoils.
One thing is sure; parties will need more votes for an outright win. Therefore, the two likely candidates for the second round may be CDC's Weah and UP's Boakai, setting the stage for a fierce battle. However, Cummings and Gongloe are the proverbial "dark horses" in this race and should not be written off. Both men can rise to the second round.
The optics of hosting massive rallies by all four political parties have been impressive. Unfortunately, the various campaigns have relied too much on anecdotal evidence, like crowding streets and stadiums, and unscientific social media and radio polls to measure progress and have been lulled into a false sense of winning. Many political parties have assumed, often wrongly, that the echo effect of being surrounded by big, boisterous crowds of already converted voters automatically translates into victory. But how they turn those large crowds into votes for their candidates may be the strategy that wins the election.
Apart from the candidates and their campaigns, the context of this election is mixed but probably nets out as a slight opposition advantage. After a decade of the UP running the country with no sustainable improvement in people's circumstances and the CDC's spectacular failure at governance, voters are hungering for someone different - whoever that might be.
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Could Boakai and Weah cancel each other and introduce another candidate? It is possible, and the 'wild card' candidate may be Cummings. If he gets to the second round with either Boakai or Weah or Gongloe, for that matter, Cummings will defeat them. Candidates may be unable to beat Cummings in the second round because he will have the momentum and the money. The key for him, though, is getting to the run-off, which looks like a tall order.
If Cummings is the "wild card," Gongloe is the "dark horse" candidate in the race. A prominent human rights attorney, law professor, and politician, Gongloe of the Liberia Peoples Party (LPP) may not be the most charismatic presidential candidate, but that's precisely what many political insiders want. Gongloe does not cause controversy and is an anti-corruption and rule-of-law campaigner, but that will not be enough to win. What he lacks in charisma, he makes up for in name recognition, experience, and uprightness.
Gongloe also comes with public sector experience. He was appointed Liberia's first post-war Solicitor General during the Ellen Johnson Sirleaf administration and was instrumental in prosecuting and sending former president Charles Taylor to the Hague.
To win this election, get-out-the-vote efforts must be imperative. Depending on voter turnout, a party may win or lose, so the political leaders must urge their supporters to vote in large numbers. The party that goes the extra mile in facilitating ways and means by which its partisans show up to vote in their respective polling stations, like providing transportation and water, will be the ultimate game changer.
