Several facts have come to light about the Niger coup that are so puzzling that they make one's head swim.
How can a head of state be "overthrown" by his own presidential guard, and yet be allowed by them to write an opinion piece for the Washington Post, stating his case firmly and extolling the way his "overthrown" Government did its best to serve the interests of the nation?
If the "prison warders" keeping him have allowed him so much freedom, then he must have been a good leader (at least in parts)!
If that is so, then why are huge crowds turning up on the streets of Niamey to demonstrate in support of the soldiers who have overthrown him?
The leaders of ECOWAS, at their special summit in Abuja, threatened to use all measures, INCLUDING FORCE, to reverse the coup, unless the coup-makers reinstated President Mohamed Bazoum by August 6, 2023. That deadline has now expired. But have the ECOWAS nations got the forces - equipped and well-trained enough- to carry out their threat?
Especially as not only Niger, but Mali and Burkina Faso, have publicly announced, in defiant terms, that they would resist an "invasion" by ECOWAS with all their combined might?
Above all, can ECOWAS rely on the support - particularly military support -of France and the EU if they were to attempt to invade Niger?
The final "unknown" factor is this: where does the United States REALLY stand, in the current political struggles not only occurring in Niger but also in Mali and Burkina Faso? On the face of it they are all - still -the "Western" countries that fought the Soviet Union politically until it collapsed.
But there were reports that the US and France did not see eye to eye in Mali before the coup in Mali, and that some of the pivotal officers who carried out that coup were American-trained. Burkina Faso too has seen American-influenced officers replacing French military advisors with American ones (it is reliably reported).
The situation in Niger is even more dangerous for ECOWAS. The US has built what is described as a "huge" military facility in Niger, where sophisticated drones constitute one of the main weapons whose use is being taught to Niger soldiers.
The facility is said to have cost about US $100m to build and that its maintenance alone costs $30m a month.
Would the us allow the nigerien army leaders who overthrew bazoum to use weapons and facilities from the facility to oppose an ecowas invasion?
You see why ECOWAS must be extremely careful in what it does over Niger? The French find the Americans difficult to handle wherever their interests converge. It happened in Indo-China, and now it is happening in Africa; our neighbourhood in Africa. We ought to refrain from emotional utterances and seek facts and act on the facts and the facts alone. Otherwise we shall learn a bitter lesson - just as some politicians did in South Vietnam, Afghanistan and other places where too much foreign intervention led to the deaths of thousands of people. For nothing.
Another factor that the ECOWAS countries must consider is this: assuming they are mainly concerned about the moral issue of whether an elected government should be allowed to be overthrown by a group of ambitious military men, is that the ONLY criterion that should be used to assess the necessity to intervene and risk the loss of thousands of precious lives?
I think we can learn a lesson from the current barrage of brutal murders being inflicted on Ukraine by Russia. What Is "The Purpose" of it? It is ostensibly to enable Ukraine to affirm its total independence from Russia by deciding to join NATO. Is that affirmation of sovereignty worth razing Ukraine to the ground for?
Of course, the political leadership of Ukraine is very bravely trying to actualise their sovereignty by deciding to join NATO. But can we be sure that the numerous women and children exposed to death and armed brutality, on a second-to-second basis, for 18 months now, would necessarily agree with their political leadership, in the choice the leadership made over the NATO issue? Wouldn't the dead Ukrainians be justified in concluding that their leaders should have been more clever than exposing them so cruelly to a person like Putin, whose macho mentality has been made known to all?
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Similarly, the leaders of ECOWAS must think of the welfare of the entire populace of West Africa before they resort to arms to rescue the overthrown government of Mr Mohamed Bazoum. Was Bazoum's government trying hard enough to fulfil the promises it had made to the Nigerien electorate? Did the members of the ousted government engage in what the masses hate most - conspicuous consumption?
Military action spells inevitable death to many innocent people. Therefore hard and harsh judgements must be made about its potential beneficiaries before it is embarked upon.
Equally important is the fact that, by engaging in the act of sitting in judgement over a fallen regime, the leaders who have now become judges, can learn that there are things they must not do, whilst they are in power, lest they oblige other leaders to expose their citizenry to danger, in order to save alien leaders, who might not have ruled with too much sagacity.
