Military and security analysts are beginning to pay more attention to presidential guards across a growing number of African countries who are wielding as much power as the official heads of the Armed Forces.
Though that is how some African heads of state want it, promoting trusted aides and demanding personal loyalty over and above loyalty to the state; their preference is having dire effects on the sustainability of democratic rule on the continent.
After a period of relative democratic stability in the African continent prevalence of coups d'etat has suddenly become the trend at a time military rule is highly abhorred all over the world and considered an aberration and anathema.
LEADERSHIP Sunday checks showed that there were six coup attempts in Africa, four of them successful in 2021 and there were two in Burkina Faso in 2022 as well as failed coup attempts in Guinea Bissau, the Gambia and the island nation of Sao Tome and Principe.
The latest in the series of military takeover of power from democratically elected governments in Africa took place in Gabon recently just a month after soldiers took control in Niger.
A new model of coups that is less violent being established in the African continent. They are being executed by the most trusted allies of the presidents and in at least two countries, the presidents were simply detained by their guards.
Security and foreign affairs experts who spoke with LEADERSHIP Sunday are of the view that African leaders, the Economic Community of West African States and the African Union are focusing and responding to the wrong set issues.
Abdourahamane Tchiani who on July 26, 2023 carried out a bloodless coup against the elected president of Niger, Mohamed Bazoum was head of the presidential guards. He was a loyalist of the previous president, Mahamadou Issoufou but was retained by Bazoum.
More chilling is the relationship between ousted Gabonese leader, Ali Bongo who could only trust his cousin, Gen. Brice Oligui Nguema to head the presidential guards' unit. That trusted cousin is the officer who on August 30, 2023 detained him in a bloodless coup just when he thought he had won another term in office.
In the wake of coups in military veterans have said Nigeria is vulnerable to coup d'etat owing to the existence of motivating factors for the coups.
Colonel Hassan Stan-Labo (Rtd) speaking to LEADERSHIP Sunday said lack of accountability, good governance and election controversies are enablers of coup, adding that all these exist currently in Nigeria.
"I still stand on that position that only good governance and accountability can serve as a motivation against coup d'etat.
"Giving the wave of coups we are seeing now within the francophone countries which I refer to as the francophone spring, one cannot vouch for any country today in Africa that this thing cannot happen".
He stated that a look at the situation on ground indicate that even those countries that democracy is supposed to have taken some firm root in, "the people still have their reservations. They are only just managing with their governments, not to even talk of looking into our own situation here in Nigeria".
"Lack of accountability, good governance and election controversies are enablers of coup. If you look at our own situation,we could talk of election controversy ,that is quite true, but there is some level of maturity in some of these countries so that they are able to hold on to see that processes such as judiciary take their due cause".
The veteran pointed to the irony that these coups are all orchestrated by the presidential guards who are entrusted to protect the number citizen and his family.
"We too have presidential guards, who administratively report to Army HQ. The guards brigade commander is answerable to the chief of army staff. Like we have seen in these countries, it is that nucleus element brigade of guards who we expect to show so much loyalty to the number citizen and protect him. Yet, those are the ones who are carrying out these coups.
"It is not elements from far outside. It is these ones who you have actually entrusted with all powers to protect the number one citizen, they are the ones that have now turned around to use those instruments of power to oust the government in power.
Also speaking, a public and private security analyst and trainer, Major Banjo Daniel (Retired) said, "Usually, the commanders of the guards formations are trusted men of the nation's Head of Government, but still answerable to the army chiefs, with whose consents coups are activated.
"If one studies the nations with coup situations presently, a common factor among them is the combination of long serving HoG saddled with corruption and suffering of the people. African leaders with their corrupt attitude and carelessness for the masses requires a rethink," he said.
Expert Faults AU, ECOWAS Approach To Prevalence Of Coups D'etat In Africa
The African Union (AU) and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) have both been firm in their responses to coups.
On a larger scale international organizations have also condemned the anti-democratic interventions in the political system of the affected countries.
The AU for the first time in history had four countries simultaneously suspended for unconstitutional changes of government and is currently reviewing its sanctions regime and enforcement mechanisms to curb the trend.
Commenting on the development, a public affairs analyst and international scholar, Dr. Adetokunbo Pearse said it is a dangerous trend for Africa countries to embrace unconstitutional change of power, noting that the best approach to resolving the problem is through diplomacy.
According to him, it amounts to interfering in the internal issues of the affected countries, adding that no one ever forced the Nigerian military to restore the various governments they ousted when the country was notorious for coup plots.
Pearse said, "On approach of African leaders to the situation, when we had our own coup, did any African leader say they want to interfere? You see there are somethings you don't have right to. It is only those developed economies, because of their own economic interest, they want to interfere."
He added that, "It is a very serious matter for African countries, the French, former French colonies are the ones that are rebelling and I just found out why rebellion is going on, which is simply because of the economy.
"France has joined European Union, and has abandoned the economies of the former colonies tied to the French Franc. The CFA is no longer the valid currency, so the economies of those French speaking colonies have been totally devastated. They now have to remove themselves from the French financial system and find their own way.
"Now, they are waking up to the reality that all these years, all their resources, all their economy have been tied to France, and now France has abandoned them. France cannot carry them into European Union, so they have to rebel.
You see the series of ties they have with France, they have to pay so much to dance. They can't do anything without France, all their natural resources will have to pass through France, and so on and so forth. So, they are breaking away. They are at a stage where we were about 30 years or 40 years ago.
"If you notice that the rebellion is not going on much in English-spoken former colonies. That is one, but what is going on in the former French colonies is a sign to the other former colonies, such as Nigeria that if you don't have a legitimate democratic election to become head of state or become president. They are going to be rebelling against you."
He said, "Even though there are no coups going on now among former English-speaking colonies, there is a sort of coup going on with all these protests in all of those countries like Tanzania, Nigeria. There are a lot of protests, people are not happy.
"Most of our elections have been illegitimate, therefore, we are ruining ourselves in this former English colony, we are going through a series of revolutions.
Reps Minority Caucus Blames Trend On Bad Governance
The Minority Caucus in the House of Representatives has condemned coups and the growing trend of military adventurism in Africa, blaming it on bad governance, inordinate ambitions and outright disconnect from the citizens.
The position of the Nigerian opposition lawmakers came on the heels of the military coup in Gabon earlier in the week which ousted President Ali Bongo Ondimba.
The Caucus in a statement issued by the Leader of the Minority Caucus, Hon. Kingsley Chinda, said, it was extremely sad, deeply worrisome, and pathetically shameful that the continent, in the past few years, has witnessed sudden rise in military coups.
Chinda said the military incursions were rolling back the gains of the democratic struggles for the return to civil rule of the late 1980s and 1990s.
"It is totally condemnable that in the past one decade, military putsch has taken place in Sudan, Mali, Tunisia, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Niger Republic and now Gabon. That these countries are in the Western, Northern, and Central regions of Africa, which represents more than half of the entire continent calls for serious concerns and debilitating worries.
"Confronted with the pains and miseries foisted by these sit-tight leaders on hapless citizens, who have been going through years and decades of bad governance, collosal economic hardship, serial social deprivation, deep-rooted poverty, deliberate intimidation and corrosive lack, military interventions of any guise will not only be welcomed but celebrated by citizens of these countries.
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"Fact is, having suffered long and painful years of total neglect by their Leaders through official insensitivity, deliberate class segregation, enforcement of inimical political and economic programmes and other negative decisions and actions, sadly the sound of martial music has become a welcome relief and friend for citizens," he said.
Chinda wondered why leaders in these countries in their respective bids to achieve inordinate ambitions take decisions and actions to perpetrate themselves in office, and in some cases turn the Leadership of their county to "family's birthright."
He said the now-frequent coups on the continent is also adduced to the sit-tight obnoxious desires of some of these Leaders, who continuously manipulate and compromise the system to achieve their egoistic and undemocratic ambitions.
"Happenings and recent developments on the continent are warning signs of likely dangers ahead, if not immediately checked by doing the right thing. Revolutions begin with seemingly innocuous incidents but before anyone realizes it, things spiral out of hands.
"Recall how the French revolution and Arab spring began. With the vagaries of personal and national challenges that has bedevilled many countries, any ambitious group of military officers are likely to leverage on the negative situations and foist themselves on the people.
"The precarious situation and numerous challenges that stifled meaningful growth and development in countries that are witnessing military governance calls for urgent, and immediate intervention by other frontline African Leaders, African Union, United Nations and relevant global bodies," the lawmaker stated.
He warned that, the use and deployment of brute force, and aggression in whatever guise is not the solution to the problems at hand and condemned any plans by either the AU, UN, or any global association to use force or coercion in restoring democratic governance in Gabon, Niger Republic or any other country in Africa.
"We urge all Leaders in Africa to pursue, and enthrone good governance. This is the only panecea towards arresting, and stopping unnecessary military interruptions in constitutional democracy across the continent. This is long overdue and absolutely necessary.
"When Leaders in Africa begin to meet the expectations of people through selfless service, resourceful and responsive delivery of good governance, adherence to rule of law, and protection of persons and properties, military incursions will definitely take the back sit," the Caucus leader added.
