Niger has hailed France's withdrawal as a 'step towards sovereignty.' But experts argue that celebrations are premature as the move has broad implications for the country, the Sahel, ECOWAS and beyond.
President Emmanuel Macron's announcement on Sunday that France will withdraw its ambassador from Niger along with the French military contingent was met with satisfaction in the country. The military leaders of Niger expressed their approval, extolling it as a significant step towards achieving sovereignty.
The junta were not alone in their celebration. Ali Idrissa, the Nigerien coordinator of "Publish What you Pay," a coalition of civil society organizations which advocates for financial transparency in the extractive industry, hailed the withdrawal as a "victory for the Nigerien people who fought for this." He emphasized the grassroots character of the movement.
Nigerien activist Maikoul Zodi was keen to point out the unprecedented volte-face by President Macron. "For us this is a clear victory because, a week ago, he [Macron] was saying that only deposed President Mohamed Bazoum had the right to order the withdrawal of French troops. Now the Nigerien people have shown that Niger belongs to Nigeriens," Zodi told DW.
A word of caution
While there have been several military coups in West Africa in the last couple of years, the situation in Niger carries higher stakes because of the impact not only on the country itself, but also on the Sahel region, and its broader implications for West Africa and transcontinental geopolitics.
Ghanaian political analyst Mutaru Mumuni Muqthtar, executive director for the West Africa Centre for Counter Extremism (WACCE), warned that, amid the celebrations, it was crucial to consider the future of Niger, one of the world's poorest countries.
"The jubilation will be short-lived, because the country, at the moment, does not have the capacity to propel itself to prosperity, to stability, to ensure the sustained gains against the threats that it is currently dealing with," Muqthtar told DW.
Volatile security situation
Niger under Bazoum was a key player in the fight against jihadist terrorism. France still has approximately 1,500 soldiers stationed in Niger as part of the effort to pacify the Sahel region. According to President Macron, post-coup authorities "no longer want to fight terrorism."
Expert Muqthtar agreed that France's departure from Niger greatly undermined counter-terrorism efforts. "The official disengagement of France would mean dire consequences for the region in terms of dealing with violent extremism," he pointed out.
Kabir Adamu, a Nigerian security and policy analyst specializing in Sahel-related matters, called the current security situation in the region "dire", and called on the international community to pay more attention to the unfolding crisis.
"We could potentially see a repetition of what happened in Afghanistan. There are large swaths of land that are being dominated by these non-state armed groups. It's extremely worrisome," Adamu told DW.
Taking their chances
Many Nigeriens are aware of the challenges ahead. But they insist that they are willing and able to meet them themselves.
Abdoulkari Hassane Maikano, a resident of the capital, Niamey, said the French presence in Niger had not yielded significant benefits. On the contrary: "It's been too long since France brought its army here to Niger, but they haven't been able to eradicate terrorism, so they have ulterior motives... We know very well that they are slowly destroying us," Maikano told DW.
Marzouk Doulla, also from Niamey, agreed. "The French military must leave immediately because we really don't need them," he said.
Civil society activists like Idrissa dismiss the experts' pessimism. He believes that the actions of the people of Niger show that they are determined to reclaim their country and make it work. "We will remain vigilant and ensure that a clear withdrawal plan is developed to do justice to our task," he said.
Mucahid Durmaz, senior analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, a risk firm based in London, explained that there were growing concerns among the public regarding the presence of Western military forces in Africa.
Lack of capacity
Niger faces serious challenges beyond security issues, including youth unemployment and a widespread frustration with the country's economic situation. Expert Muqthtar said that insufficient domestic revenue will make it hard for the junta to finance development ideas or projects currently under discussion. Reducing reliance on foreign aid will further hamper progress, with potentially dire results, he warned.
"We estimate that within the next year we will begin to see internal dissent and frustration within the local population against the military junta in place, because they will not have enough steam to carry on and because they do not have enough financial muscle to sustain the current situation," Muqthtar said.
Geopolitical stakes
One of the biggest fallouts from the French withdrawal from Niger has been a shift of international alliances. The refusal by Niger leaders to back down following threats of intervention from the Economic Community of West Africa States (ECOWAS), their new alliances with military juntas in other states which recently underwent coups and the insistence on a French withdrawal, all significantly impact in geopolitics in the Sahel.
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"The French exit from Niger will push Western troops further away from the Sahel," Durmaz said.
The situation is unlikely to change soon, as all international and diplomatic efforts to get the coup leaders to back down have failed.
"The military leadership is increasingly defiant and increasingly seeking to establish itself as an independent entity operating of its own accord without international dictates or regional partners' direction," Muqthtar explained.
Because of growing anti-French sentiments, experts believe that Niger is likely to replace Western powers with other partners. According to Adamu, though uncertain, the shift could benefit Niger.
"It is possible that in the negotiations to bring in that partner, the equity and fairness will be better than what it's currently getting," he told DW.
Analyst Muqthtar agreed that other, non-Western partners, are likely to increase their presence in Niger. "There is enough and adequate space that allows Russia and China and other non-Western partners to establish a strong foothold in West Africa," he said.
George Okach and Nafissa Amadou contributed to this article
Edited by: Cristina Krippahl
