IN a little over a year's time Ghanaians will be making a crucial decision by determining who takes the mantle from Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo, when he would have served his two term as president of the republic.
In view of that, the two major political parties; the National Democratic Congress (NDC) and New Patriotic Party (NPP) and a presumed third force, Movement For Change (MFC) have settled on their presidential candidates for the December 2024 crucial presidential election.
All three candidates, John Dramani Mahama, a former President (NDC), Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, the current Vice President (NPP) and Alan John Kwadwo Kyerematen, former Minister of Trade and Industry, appear poised to battle it out in what political watchers say would be a very complex contest on all fronts.
Following the election of Dr Bawumia at the NPPs primaries on November 4, the tickets are a step away from being ready as the candidates would be required by provisions of the 1992 Constitution to name their running mates before the polls.
"A candidate of the office of Vice President shall be designated by the candidate for the office of President before the election of President," the Constitution provides in Article 60(2).
For candidate John Mahama, who garnered 98.9 per cent in his party's presidential primary, will be the fourth time he will appear on the ballot; having contested in 2012, 2016 and 2020, giving him a head start ahead of his contenders in terms of popularity among voters.
Dr Bawumia, who won his internal contest with 61.47 per cent, however, will be coming into his first presidential contest with the incumbency advantage and at the same time the baggage - good or bad - of the government.
For Mr Kyerematen, who since 2007 has been seeking to lead the NPP until in September when he quit the party, having placed third in the party's super delegates' conference, will be hoping to be the third force to break the political dominance of the NDC and NPP.
The candidacy of the three throw to the electorate many dynamics and reasons why they should vote for a particular candidate. These dynamics would include the economy, the fight against corruption, records in government, religion and regionalism amongst others.
Already, the debate within political circles about who would win based on the above parameters have begun with earlier polls putting the former president ahead.
According to a poll conducted in October this year, with a sample size of 6,423 voters in 80 constituencies by Global Info Analytics, a research firm which correctly projected the NPP primaries, "John Mahama leads with approximately 49 per cent, Dr Bawumia, 28 per cent and Mr Kyerematen 11 per cent."
But Dr Bawumia is upbeat about his chances with a promise to give John Mahama and the NDC a "showdown" whilst on his campaign to be ejected as flagbearer.
"If I contest, I will pull more votes for the NPP in the Volta Region as well, and that will mean that all the strongholds of the NDC will be shaken. This accounts for their fear of Dr Bawumia because they fully appreciate that if I am the candidate for the NPP, I will give the NDC a showdown," Dr Bawumia told delegates at Nkwanta South.
Mr Kyerematen, however, believes he offers the electorate a credible alternative choice for them to break away from the political shackles of the NDC and NPP.
"Without necessarily pre-empting the emergence of any other Presidential Candidates, it is likely that the personalities that will dominate the ballot paper in December 2024, will be Alan, Mahama and Bawumia. If this eventually materialises, then one can reasonably predict that I will win the general elections and become the first Independent Candidate to be elected as President of the Republic of Ghana," Mr Kyerematen said in an interview in response to Dr Bawumia's victory.
But an Associate Professor of Political Marketing at the University of Ghana Business School, Prof. Kobby Mensah, in an interview with the Ghanaian Times in Accra yesterday, said the former president may be leading in the polls but campaigns would make the difference.
"Poll after poll, John Mahama appears to be in the lead but like I've always said, campaigns do have effect. How each candidate carries out his campaign will determine where the voter will put his vote," Prof. Mensah said.
All three candidates, the university Don said possess unique advantages and disadvantages; whereas John Mahama and Dr Bawumia carry the baggages of their days in office, Alan Kyerematen presents the voter with a fresh slate.
"The appraisal of what Alan can do if given the mandate would be limited unlike John Mahama and Dr Bawumia who have one way or the other been there before all be it the latter being a vice. For the two, the voter has a complete view of what they can offer," he said.
As an incumbent, Prof. Mensah said the Vice President, apart from carrying the baggage of the government, would also be measured specifically on the specific task assigned to him; the management of the economy.
On his part, Dr Kwame Ansah-Asante, Senior Lecturer, Department of Political Science and Director of the Centre of European Studies at the University of Ghana said ethnicity and regionalism would play no role in who becomes the next president.
He argued that the economy, infrastructure development, unemployment, and the fight against corruption would be the determining factors.
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When that happens, he said, the former president would be in an advantageous position having posted superior indices in those areas during his tenure as president, though his flaws would be thrown at him as well.
On Dr Bawumia, Dr Ansah-Asante said any attempt to disassociate him from the government would not be entertained by the electorate especially when he is credited for the good deeds of the government.
"He must be bold and admit the failures of the government and sell to the electorate, how he will deal with them if he gets his full term, rather than running away from the bad and taking the good," he said.
Dr Ansah-Asante dismissed the chances of Mr Kyerematen puling any surprise in the polls on the basis that he is an Akan and the need for a third force, stressing that "Ghana has been built on a two party system and that will remain with us for a long time to come."
According to Dr Etse Sikanku, Senior Lecturer and Director of the Directorate for Research, Innovations & Development (DRID), Ghana Institute of Journalism, the 2024 presidential election would be an "interesting race" due to the new dynamics, ranging from the ethnic background, current or previous political office held of aspirants to the emergence of the MFC.
Describing it as "unpredictable dynamics," he said the situation was also a good advertisement for Ghana's democracy which provides the basis for a competitive presidential race.
